scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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what models and post links please. For this to affect Florida it has to get north of Haiti-Cuba over the next 24hrs or so.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Have seen no models shifting right of Cuba...some of the BAMS have come east from a central america landfall to be in line with the and track....this is a gulf storm, and very possibly a western gulf storm.
(Off-topic comment removed.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 03:08 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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agh, i think it will shift east. keep in mind how rash and quickly these tracks change. this isnt 1990 anymore where they were more dead on with the spaghetti models. the atmosphere is highly unstable so its making things more hard of a read. and plus we have like 3 other disturbances out there and it looks like gustav is playing bumper cars with 95l. :X
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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The models all show a general NW motion till Weds, then a run of nearly 24 hours DUE west, moving Gus thru the gap between Cuba and Jamacia. The models (and ) are very good within a 3 day window especially when all of them agree. Once again the water vapor loop shows a good push coming from the north of Gus's current position, so that will limits its northern movement. Basically it will hit a wall at about 20 N, then have no choice but to go more west. There is a weakness to the east of FL (in the Bahamas) that provides a window for northern motion but that window does not open till Gus gets to atleast 80 W which will take till Thursday at his current speed.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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BOB you said the models shifted east, you have to support it with links. There are no models that shift it east at this time. Just cause its moving NW and might say it @11am doesnt mean it will stay that way. Models have been showing it moving NW until later tonight. Again the only chance this has to make it to south florida is for this to make it far enough NW to be north of Cuba by tomorrow morning. I highly doubt that, but a very strong system might make that happen (30%)
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lsutigerfan
Registered User
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Mike,
I live in Baton Rouge, La. and have become very nervous by the looks of the track this morning. I know it is a long way off, but I was wondering if you see anything that could happen to make this storm move away from Louisiana?
We are still recovering from and the thought of another major hurricane is quite frightning.
(For all new users to the site - use the Private Message capability whenever you wish to correspond with another site user.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 03:17 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Models will shift back and forth a bit even though they seem consistent now.
It's better to watch the movement of the storm and compare it to the short term part of the models
to see how they are playing out.
One always breaks from the pact.
Some of these models refuse to develop it just 24 hours ago when it was not yet classified. To me that's a red light I worry on.
Watch 3 day, keep your eye on 5 day range and keep watching the storm itself!
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Miami, Fla.
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Looks like the latest is forecasting Part II. It has Gustav with 145 mph winds, 150 miles southeast of New Orleans, LA at 12Z Sunday...ironically, the day after the three-year anniversary of . I would say the entire Gulf Coast is under the gun at this time and we could be looking at a major U.S. landfall next week.
(Post moved from the Main Page - model discussions belong in the Forecast Lounge. See the 'Clarification' post in the Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions Forum for guidance.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 05:47 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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If this thing,and it is a big IF,makes it into the GOM than it could become a monster cane.But if it stays on it's current track than South Florida could see a cat 2 or cat 3 cane.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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CanWatcher
Unregistered
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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CanWatcher, the 11am advisory and forecast path has the easternmost part of the 5 day cone touching florida. while it isnt a direct hit it still has it in the cone.
Edited by Evan McCone (Tue Aug 26 2008 03:29 PM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Yup,still heading NW,we may see a shift to the east on some of the next model runs. If it does not turn more west very shortly than they will have to shift the track a little further east.Remember models change a lot with these stormsIt is important to note that conditions are always changing,what we have now is just a snap shot.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by ftlaudbob (Tue Aug 26 2008 03:43 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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While this Forum is not as strictly moderated as the Main Page thread and the Storm Forum, some of the basic posting rules still apply. If you wish to thank someone or respond to a specific individual, use the Private Message capability - is not a Chat Room.
The one line post rule still applies, i.e., don't make them - there are very few exceptions to this. Don't simply state the obvious. One-line posts consume bandwidth and that can become a problem when the site gets busy - and the site is starting to get busy.
Don't get into an argumentative discussion with someone - take it off thread via the PM capability.
Your help on these items will allow the site to manage the processing burden and prevent it from crashing.
ED
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Need a little clarification on the possible interaction betwee G and other systems. From the 11 , there are actually two other potential systems...95L and the one east of it. Actually, the gives the east one a higher chance of development.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Rob In Miss
Unregistered
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Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making. I'm a structural engineer that moved to Biloxi from Tampa after and have been to all of the areas hit by hurricanes since Charlie except for those in Texas. While the speeds posted by the is one thing, another possibly more important consideration, is the "size" of the storm. I observed far more "wind" damage from Charlie than even though had ten to a hundred times the devastation and size. While watching where this storm goes and the intensity of the wind, I wish there were a way to more accurately predict the size and swath of the storm's surge. Cat 3's are not supposed to have 30 foot surges but it happened. With the potential path of Gustav having plenty of time and distance to push the water towards the coast, my bet is that the storm surge from this hurricane may unfortunately be the story again.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
Looks like this could be "Katrina Two" in the making.
Please be very careful about making these kind of alarmimg posts. To this point there are very few similarities to and it is VERY far away from Louisiana. I usually wait until the moderators here (who are mostly what I would call experts) make that kind of comparison before 'going there'. Otherwise, it just freaks some people out and people get freaky enough about these storms. Gustav is a nicely formed little storm that will shake up Haiti and the south coast of Cuba the next couple days. Beyond that there nothing that is for sure. Anything is possible, from a cat 5 to it blowing itself out and disappearing.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Rob In Miss
Unregistered
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I apologize if the post seemed alarmist. The point of the post was to pay attention to the storm surge and not focus on the wind speed only.
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Southeast, FL
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(Off topic 'Katrina' post was deleted.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 26 2008 06:29 PM)
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