Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Models keep bouncing all over the place. Of course, given Gustav's slow motion, that's to be expected right now. IF it ever gets free of Haiti, the models might come into some sort of consistent agreement, but that may be Tuesday at this rate.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
|
|
pcola, in which direction do you think it will shift? more nne? its moving 3mph as of the latest advisory, its chuggin along very slowly.
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged:
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
This is the Forecast Lounge, however it is not a chat room or a place for one line posts. Use the PM feature to ask a question of another user regarding their post. This has been said more than once in this Forum as well as the others so from here on in there will be some deleted/moved posts. Keep this in mind before you ask what happened to my post. Review the site rules regarding posting.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Aug 27 2008 11:45 PM)
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
It looks as though convection is starting to fire near the center. It also looks like the shear is starting to relax as I dont see these tops being blow off like the last several hours. It will need to move farther from Haiti before it can do very much
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
The shear might be relaxing a little, but I still do not think convection is building over the LLC just yet. It's trying to build, clearly, but still getting blown off, which indicates to me that there is still some degree of shear. It's also still creeping along at a snail's pace.
Edit: 8pm is out, weaker still (down to 45mph).. now moving due west at 7...
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Aug 27 2008 11:51 PM)
|
Crusadier95
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
Loc:
|
|
Well I have predictions as of the 5:00PM Advisory. The high is what's making it's projection pend for me. I have ether going out into the Gulf and making landfall slightly east of New Orleans or going over the northern tip of Cuba and making another north of Cedar Key. Again depends on the that's out there.
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
GFDL 18Z run has not changed much..looking at ms/la border, but the stalls the system in the northern gulf..2 more days before we have a better grip on this
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
|
|
I agree at least 48 hours before the models and can get a better handle on Gus. I do not recall anywhere in the forecast in the last 48 hours calling for Gus to be a minimal TS now still hugging the sw coastline of Haiti.
Still some shear impeding re-intensification but I still think that the mountainous terrain of Haiti did a real number on Gus. The longer it takes for him to re-organize (assuming he does) will have huge implications with regard to intensity and track.
--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Gustav heading SW currently, though might just say WSW. Gustav weaker going with the flow from the midlevel high over the florida straits and maybe alittle help from the upper low. Gustav will bring torrential rains to Jamaica and unless he passes directly over the island, he will strengthen to a hurricane again by Thursday sometime.
95L really needs to wait for that upper low to its west todo something. It may become a TD or a TS in the next 12-24hrs but it needs the upper low to move NW or SW and get out of the way to get a better flow aloft.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
WTNT22 KNHC 280242
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0300 UTC THU AUG 28 2008
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI NORTH
OF PORT AU PRINCE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI WEST OF
THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PORT AU PRINCE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
There's that 89.5W again. 0.1degree E of 's landfall point. That should be near Downtown Venice, Louisiana.
Mapped out that would be 18nm SSW of Venice,LA and 6nm NNW of the Southwest Pass of the MS River.
These are the 120 hour forecast points are errors exceed 250nm at this time~danielw
|
hogrunr
Unregistered
|
|
The latest IR imagery shows a good deal of convection starting to build near where the has the center located. By morning I would expect to see the strength on the upside instead of weakening. Also to note, most of the model tracks that have been recently updated, including the model track, have shifted slightly to the west of where they previously were.
In the forecast discussion from the they bring up the point that there is a greater expectation of some shear once Gus hits the GOM and there is also a greater chance that an upper level ridge will be entering the western gulf because of the delay in track and intensification that Gus has taken over the past day. Personally I think that the warm waters that Gus is entering will still allow it to reach Cat 3 strength even if only for a while before shear takes it back down to a Cat 2.
|
gatorman
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 23
Loc:
|
|
ok, sorry if this is a little bit of over kill for basicly the same question, but ive been verbally spanked for one liners.. anyways wouldnt sheer from the southwest push the hurricane(gustav) more to the east?? also as someone on here, much more knowledgeable than I, said that the path a hurricane follows is like is like moutains and valleys, moutains are like highs and valleys are low. the hurricane is going to follow the lows(valley) and try to wind around the highs, with this in mind, wouldnt the hurricane(gustav) be more proned to shift eastward with a dome of high pressure building in from the west?? alot of these post are very insightful and a great learning tool, i know it has helped me,, thanks all
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
for hurricanes to grow, they need convection to fie, which means very high cloud tops....shear will blow the tops off the clouds and prevent it from growing, but no effect the loe level center..........also, the high pressure north has clockwise winds, thus a movement around the high clockwise, until a break is found, usually between a high and a low, which has counterclockwise winds, thus the path of least resistance
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
|
|
OK....I quit......just when the shifts its track west, some of the globals, including the shift to the east, with the no pointing at the mouth of mobile bay, and the stalling the system in the northern gulf.....for me the solution is simple, i will leave the shutters up until the xmas lights go up....this is nerveracking
--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
|
Rob In Miss
Unregistered
|
|
To my untrained eye, Gus seems to be moving to the west. This appears to be following the model in both tracking and intensity for now. The hasn't been shifting too much...been pretty much just east of New Orleans for over a day and certainly has our attention. We're waiting until Saturday to make the call on implenting our evacuation from the Mississippi Gulf Coast because a lot can happen between now and then. We almost saw this thing completely dessipate less tha 24 hours ago so who knows what's in store....
|
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
|
|
I like the post a met wrote yesterday, where he indicated that it is actually IMPOSSIBLE to know where Fay is eventually going to go. They don't have the tools yet....
Interestingly, the rips through north Jamaica...then intensifies to a strong hurricane directly through Mobile Bay.......and yesterday it was over in Mississippi.
the models will change...and the ONLY thing to do is think about what you will do IF the storm heads your way. I would venture to say from Panama City Florida all the way to Texas is in the bullseye...and as it gets closer....it will get less. Typical errors are on average 200 miles this way or that, when the storm is that far out....
Hanna looks like an Andrew track to me...and possibly a major hurricane too.....
|
hogrunr
Unregistered
|
|
Actually the most accurate track thus far for Gus has been the UKMET model. It is the only model that originally had Gus going south of Jamaica before sling shotting around back to the WNW. The model hasn't been updated since fairly early this morning, so I would wait to see it's 11am EDT update before I see where it's trying to take Gus.
|
Glenn AE5IS
Unregistered
|
|
I'm watching the BAMM and BAMD models which are showing the winds above 10,000 and 24,000 feet respectively for some long term guidance. The is a good fluiddynamic model but seems slow to respond to other changes. The BAM models seem to trace a high pressure ridge around FL. This is nerveracking.
|
PensacolaWX
Unregistered
|
|
Quote:
OK....I quit......just when the shifts its track west, some of the globals, including the shift to the east, with the no pointing at the mouth of mobile bay, and the stalling the system in the northern gulf.....for me the solution is simple, i will leave the shutters up until the xmas lights go up....this is nerveracking
I know we are supposed to not put too much faith into the 5 day cone or the models that far out, but this gets so nerve racking when the track wobbles away from you and then back in a constant loop of back and forth. On one note they are saying that the high over florida will move off to the east and keep 95L (Hanna) from spinning out to sea. Yet the models hold it in place enough to keep Gustav from recurving more North to the panhandle of Florida. What gives? Which is it?
|
RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 181
Loc:
|
|
The model data I've been looking at the last few days has been quite consistent in showing "full" development of Gustav from this point forward, with a minimal cat 3 storm impacting the region from New Orleans to Panama City as early as Labor Day. To narrow it down any further this far out seems pointless. It bears repeating that the biggest difficulty and degrees of error come with intensity forecasts and structure of the storms as they impact coastlines. One things for sure, people cannot say they didn't have enough warning with this storm!
--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
