kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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I agree. Entering the GOM further south could be very interesting. If she stalls or slows....... 
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Jumaduke
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: North Florida
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What might be the effects for north central Florida once Fay's center is out over the GOM? We would be on the N/NE side of the storm at that point, which is historically the strongest side of a TS/Hurricane. Can we expect continual rain bands if she strengthens out there, or will a land component under the N/NE side mean that she won't be able to build up again?
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Go Gators!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A good bit of the Forecast depends on whether Fay moves over the GOM.
Right now Mobile NWS is forecasting up to 10 inches of rain based on the current inland / coastline forecast track.
A track over water would almost certainly change the amount of rain and possibly the wind speeds.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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the strongest part of the storm is the front right quadrant...on most hurricanes that is the n/ne side because most storm are heading south to north or close to it...Fay heading due west means areas northwest of the center would be the worst, but this is not a hurricane, and is a somewhat lopsided storm...expect rainbands to continue coming off the gulf as Fay heads west....well after the center passes..............amazingly, if Fay follows the track, she will have made 5 landfalls in Florida.......wow, we may never see that again
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
Edited by pcola (Fri Aug 22 2008 08:25 AM)
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lsutigerfan
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Quote:
Latest track guidance continues to shift southward and westward and upper air continues to build ridge to Fay's north and I think everybody needs to start looking at the real possibility of a new love interest; New Orleans. If this guidance pans out and if Fay can re-develop an inner core we might have her as a hurricane if she stalls in the GOM. I saw nothing in the latest model guidance to believe there's a west-north-west track in her immediate future.
I hope Fay does not come near La. Our local mets here are saying that there is only a 10-20% chance that the storm will continue to move due west and visit us. Do any of you see anything that may track this storm due west and come in around La. coastline?
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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/FAY.d1-merge.windzoom.html
The book isn't over on Fay...or should we say nightmare.....
who knows...at this point. But oh yeah...it could go to Lousiana.....
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Current track guidance is mostly north of the New Orleans/ Baton Rouge area.
But with this storm who knows.
Here are two links that will update the latest model trends.
However, they are quite cluttered and hard to separate.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
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redlevel
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
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I live in Crystal River and was just wondering what the back side of fay will bring to our area? can anyone shed a little light on this
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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I love that we'll be able to follow this all the way with nexrad.
Looks like Fay wants to come out in N Dixie County.
Which would then put it S of Pensacola.
Which would stall it in Lake Pontchartrain.
Moving extra tropical into Mississippi.
There. With a cherry on top. ;}
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Noted in recent radar images that Fay is exiting Dixie County. Also the number and intensity of feeders have increased. We had a doozy through here ( Ft. Myers) just a few minutes ago. Is this an indication of intensification? The western rain shield is expanding too it seems along with some fill in of lighter rain south and east. Looks pretty good actually for all its been through.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Re: danielw
Southwesterly winds off the Gulf. Good moisture source and little resistance to the wind. Watch out for strong bands and squalls throughout Saturday. I'm expecting the same here in the Tampa Bay area.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Fri Aug 22 2008 12:35 PM)
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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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This has excellent convection wrapping around the entire storm. the pressures will drop quickly now that she is getting into the gulf...the forward speed is slow enough to get all the gusto out of the water around it...and the high pressure venting on top of her is uninhibited....
suprising to me that no one is posting that this has an awesome chance of making it to hurricane status...
August...GOM = ??
what inhibits this from developing into a major hurricane? I see nothing.....to block it.....
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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Quote:
Do any of you see anything that may track this storm due west and come in around La. coastline?
With Fay being so slow AND so large I think you might want toask whether there is any reason for Fay *not* to come in around the Louisiana coastline. Judging by the fact that the latest probability cone is beginning to look more like a circle I get the impression that the folks do not see anything which would prevent Fay from doing just that. You probably should assume that Fay will affect New Orleans and start making preparation ASAP. My 2cts.
Also, most models seem to have Fay coming your way, check here
Good luck!
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The broad structure of fay (It went to this after exiting the eastern Florida coast) should keep Fay from organizing much if it gets back over the Gulf, it may some, but still just a Tropical Storm and rainmaker.
It would have to be over the Gulf an awful long time for it to regenerate a core that would allow rapid intensification, so I don't think that will happen. Even so, Fay should move inland well before New Orleans.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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You're probably right, but Fay is untested in terms of ability to strengthen. She has most of her life either over land or so close to it that she has never gotten a chance to develop fully. She most likely will still have these problems as she won't get far from land in the Gulf either. If she does and the predicted shear doesn't kill her, could be interesting.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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Duplicate post removed.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:52 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Just impressed at Fays overall cloud pattern. Fay  this has been one interesting storm!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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What do you read from that...is the COC very near the coast...is it starting to twist a bit in the last frames?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Aug 22 2008 02:31 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Tornado warnings popping all over from JAX to Valdosta
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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it looks like the forward motion to the west has decreased again...seems to be stuck in northern part of Dixie county with the center near the small area of convection, and hardly moving...with a forward speed of 4 mph, it would take days to reach the fl/al line....this storm has got to be driving the nuts
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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