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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Fay & Future Features
      #82787 - Sat Aug 23 2008 02:00 PM

Tropical Storm Fay now inland over the Florida panhandle just north of Panama City and 75 miles east of Pensacola at 1PM CT moving to the west at 8mph with sustained winds of 45mph gusting to 55mph - mainly to the southeast of the center along the coast. Continued movement to the west, as a minimal Tropical Storm is expected through Monday morning. With a slow forward motion likely, heavy rain is probable in southwestern Georgia, the Florida panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana (see Clark's latest Met Blog).

From Clark on previous thread:
"Tropical Storm Fay, now located near Panama City, FL, is producing torrential rains across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend region this afternoon, with flood warnings up covering an estimated 400,000 people across the region. Rainfall rates of 4-6"/hr are common within its highly efficient rainfall bands, producing running storm total accumulations over 16" in Monticello, FL as of noon today. This activity will slowly slide westward with time, impacting Tallahassee and points further west. As it was in Jacksonville and Melbourne, this is a high impact dangerous flooding situation and travel is not recommended across the region. Stay tuned to your local NWS office, the NHC, and local emergency management agencies for all of the latest, including road closures and evacuations."


Latest NHC Warnings and Watches:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

Invest 94L has a low pressure center of 1008MB and was located near 11N 58W at 23/16Z with winds of 25mph gusting to 35mph. The system is moving to the west at 20mph and a continued motion to the west northwest to northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Windshear in the northern Caribbean Sea is likely to decrease so this system has a good chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next 24 to 36 hours. Convection has been on a steady increase and residents in Trinidad/Tobago, the Windward Islands and the southern Leeward Islands should anticipate squally conditions over the next few days. The next name on the list is Gustav.

Invest 95L was located near 19.5N 49.5W at 23/16Z with winds of 25mph gusting to 35mph, a low pressure of about 1012MB. This system was moving to the west northwest at 25mph and should continue to move to the west northwest for the next couple of days. Although convection has been increasing with this system, it will soon enter an area of strong southwesterly windshear so chances for additional development are rather slim.

Other active waves are noted near 6N 40W in the ITCZ and 13N 25W, and a large wave will exit the west African coast on Sunday. Plenty of systems to watch in the weeks ahead, however Fay remains our primary concern.
ED

Fay plotted on Google Map

Fay Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fay
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fay


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Wave 94L Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Caribbean Islands Weather Reports


Wave 95L Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82791 - Sat Aug 23 2008 05:02 PM

Looks to me that the ULL to the west that we saw dive last night out of the central plains is now winning on the west side of Fay... I starting to think that our weather here in PC area... may turn out to be better than thought.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82792 - Sat Aug 23 2008 05:14 PM

so how many landfalls has Fay made in FL? 4 or 5?

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82793 - Sat Aug 23 2008 06:17 PM

4..after its landfall near Carabelle last night, it never went back over the Gulf..

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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gatorman
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc:
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82795 - Sat Aug 23 2008 07:12 PM

in the panhandle.......... FAY = FLOP,, not much rain... under inch and a half,, winds less than a breeze,,, total DUD!!!!!!

Remember, please no one line posts. Furthermore, many in the panhandle saw 5+" of rain today with areas in the Big Bend/extreme eastern panhandle seeing over 20". Be careful with what you say... -Clark

Edited by Clark (Sat Aug 23 2008 08:06 PM)


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cate
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 13
Loc: Florida
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: gatorman]
      #82797 - Sat Aug 23 2008 07:41 PM

Why then is the NHC talking about torrential rain, damaging winds, tornado possitility, etc. in that area? My grandchildren live in PC and I'd like to know they are not in danger.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Notes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82810 - Sat Aug 23 2008 11:20 PM

From the previous thread;
"A reminder that CFHC is not a chat room. There have been a considerable number of one-line posts that contain no useful content in this thread (and others). One-line posts are generally not permitted on the site in any Forum. Please review the site Rules for guidance before you post."

If you want to agree with someone or thank someone for their assistance, please use the PM capability.

Model discussions/forecasts belong in the Forecast Lounge.

Current conditions in your area associated with Fay belong in the Storm Forum in the appropriate thread, ie., "Preparations, Closings and Conditions in your area"

Please review the Forum Descriptions and the site Rules before you post. It will make the task of site moderation a lot easier if you take the time to do this, and it makes it easier for others to follow the various discussions.
Thanks,
ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Administrative Notes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82818 - Sun Aug 24 2008 09:58 AM

Can we discuss future features here? Because that's the title and I'd like to read some thoughts on features currently on the map from some of our met posters as the models continue to develop 95 and 94.

94 looks low and is slowly moving west however there is strong shear down there where it is now and further west there is shear so despite the models I am not sure if this can develop.

95 on the other hand is high but if the high builds in wouldn't it push it west?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

I'd like to read some in depth analysis on future features beyond Fay.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Administrative Notes [Re: LoisCane]
      #82819 - Sun Aug 24 2008 10:13 AM

94L actually looks really good in satellite presentation. I didnt check the quickpast yet to see if there is a closed low or windspeeds yet. It would't surprise me though if this really gets upgraded fast today.

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tropics
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Re: Administrative Notes [Re: scottsvb]
      #82820 - Sun Aug 24 2008 10:29 AM

The QuikSCAT missed 94L this morning. Visible satellite presentation shows a pretty healthy invest right now. By the way the convection is bending I'd say it's pretty evident there is some turning. The latest SHIP forecast is also calling for low shear values over the next 5 days.

There is a pretty significant weakness in the subtropical high which should result in a WNW to NW motion. With the deep convection evident on rainbow associated with the low you really have to use a deeper layer steering current. This is the 48 hour GFS 500mb ( link ).

Edited by tropics (Sun Aug 24 2008 10:33 AM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Administrative Notes [Re: scottsvb]
      #82821 - Sun Aug 24 2008 10:29 AM Attachment (261 downloads)

There is some good rotation starting to develop with 94L. We will have to see how far north it can get so it wont pull in drier air from S. America. Some of the models hook it north to Hispaniola, and some take it to Central America...but its really too early to be looking at models until they have something to initialize. I attached a wind shear graphic, and I dont see a lot of shear going on

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Administrative Notes [Re: WeatherNut]
      #82822 - Sun Aug 24 2008 11:44 AM

As urged by Lois in a previous post this a.m., would also be interested with any MET's thoughts on 94L as well. Perhaps even moreso, would be curious to their "take" or interpretation on what I have noticed to be an unusually lesser degree of short to mid term model consistancy with regards to steering patterns. Seems that in some past years, perhaps years where the Atlantic has displayed more pronounced meridianal troughing, forecasts of 72hr's-120hr's tended to be more "spot on". This year, it is my observation that not only does the Eastern U.S. appear much more zonal, but the overall Atlantic as well. Of course this would lessen the extent of poleward steering influences, but because of this perhaps, there also seems to be less defined steering, with 500mb flow variances and heights seemingly less extreme. Then you take weaker systems in the early stages of cyclongenisis, and even greater conflict of model guidance seems to exist given the lower level steering influences that always exist.

It might be noted to, that as we watch for development of 94L or other future invests, that perhaps contrary to other years, certain models typically less relied on may be actually more reliable this year given the specifity of dynamical data deceminated by them. Right now for instance, as another post already made reference to the GFDL now having backed off development of 94L, suddenly NOGAPS ( in the last couple of runs ) out of nowhere really develops the system north of Hispanola/Cuba. What is most odd to me about this, is that I have noticed some years ago, that the NOGAPS model had somehow become "neutered" ( obviously tweaked ), and seemingly rarely forecasting future cyclogenisis, especially less so as an outlyer to the many other models not forecasting the same. :?:


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82823 - Sun Aug 24 2008 12:04 PM

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
920 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2008

AN INCREASING ATLC TROPICAL CONSENSUS OCCURRING IN OVERNIGHT RUNS
CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 94L AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
95L. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS NOGAPS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET ALL INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT AND A NW TRACK INTO THE BAHAMAS OR CUBA BY DAY 6 WITH
A NW CONTINUENCE. GFS REMAINS ALONE WITH LIMITED TO NO
DEVELOPMENT. HURRICANE MODELS ARE LESS EMPHATIC AND MAINTAIN A
MORE WRLY COURSE TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 94L. WHETHER 94L OR
95L OR BOTH THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL WAVE OR GREATER
MOVING INTO THE BAHAMAS OR CENTRAL GREATER ANTILLES DAYS 5-7
POSSIBLY AFFECTING FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS AND
ADVISORIES.

HPC UPDATED MORNING BLENDS USE A 50/50 BLEND OF OP GFS AND ECMWF
THRU DAY 5 THEN A BLENSD OF ECMWF AND ECMWF MEAN THRU DAYS 6 AND
7. THE OP 00Z GFS IS REASOANBLE ENOUGH TO USE ALSO AT THIS TIME
BUT WAS NOT USED BECAUSE OF ITS DISREGARD OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS 94L
AND 95L.
ROSENSTEIN


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #82824 - Sun Aug 24 2008 12:07 PM

National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 24 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. CARIBBEAN SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 25/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 25/1430Z
D. 15.5N 70.0W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO ? TEAL 71
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 26/0300Z
D. 16.5N 72.0W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

This systems appears to have both the HPC and now the NHC attention.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #82825 - Sun Aug 24 2008 12:43 PM

94L at 66W; 14N is looking like it may be getting wrapped up today, definitely circular in appearance. The convection West of that still appears to be disorganized. 95L is struggling today with very little convection. The new invest just west of the Cape Verde Islands has a broad LL circulation, but little convection associated with it. Still, we're entering the historical peak of the season and things are active in the tropical Atlantic. It should be an interesting few weeks ahead.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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johnnylightning
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: Saint Petersburg, FL
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #82827 - Sun Aug 24 2008 04:31 PM

I was looking at 95L and found this great little web site with Hurricane Info and some Meteorological data about Tropical Storms/history in the Antilles. It has several radar features and is from the Netherlands Antilles Government, similar to the Cuban radar but in the .English language.

http://www.weather.an/reports/documents/HurricanesandTropicalStorms.pdf

Any new thoughts about continental landfall probabilities of 95L?
JohnnyLightning

--------------------
Semper Fi


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: johnnylightning]
      #82828 - Sun Aug 24 2008 05:09 PM

Quote:

found this great little web site with Hurricane Info and some Meteorological data about Tropical Storms/history in the Antilles. It has several radar features and is from the Netherlands Antilles Government, similar to the Cuban radar but in the .English language.




I checked out the site, and while some nice historical information, I did not see any links for any island radars. Perhaps I skimmed over it all a little fast. If you happen to have the specific link(s) for these E. Caribb. Island radars, please do post them.


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: weathernet]
      #82829 - Sun Aug 24 2008 05:30 PM

94l is looking very healthly this evening, with a nice rotation becoming very evident. I would expect a status upgrade within the next 24hrs. Due to the weakness in the Atlantic high, should we still expect more of a WNW or NW movement?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: M.A.]
      #82830 - Sun Aug 24 2008 06:22 PM

I am not convinced 100% that there is a closed low with 94L, which is required for it to be designated as a tropical cyclone. It's getting closer, but I don't believe it's there, yet. Models are beginning to distress me about it, though.. they're all over the place!

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Fay & Future Features [Re: Hugh]
      #82831 - Sun Aug 24 2008 06:55 PM

Yeah, 94 has a real look to it tonight. Not sure the spin but the fact that it looks tightly wound up. Round for lack of a better term. Looking less wave like.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

And, high enough to the north of South America to have any problems with friction from land. Looks very different from the way it looked this morning.

Glad the planes are going in...

Surprised a little because I thought it had it's plate filled with shear. If it looks this good with this much shear, what could it do down the road I wonder...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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