Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season is over. 2015's run June 1st-Nov 30th, 2015.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 170 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3345 (9 y 1 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | >> (show all)
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Hanna Lounge
      #83174 - Thu Aug 28 2008 07:11 AM

As of this morning, T.D. 8 has officially formed. Am preparing a preliminary forecast with regards to future course and impact. Will wait for visible satellite to assess current appearance, however given "T"'s of 2.0 and 2.5, anticipate an improving upper air as dipicted by 6Z upper air charts to have NHC conclude "Hannah" to be named by mid-day ( if not earlier ).

European model once again has been the most consistant, and along with other basic dynamic models now coming into agreement with even marginal support by GFS, believe the U.S. southeastern seaboard will really have to pay attention to this one.

Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 28 2008 08:50 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: T.D. 8 [Re: weathernet]
      #83177 - Thu Aug 28 2008 07:30 AM

All the models so far have it going NW,then W and then SW.Kinda strange.And they have it as a major cane in just a few days.Any input?This looks to be a real concern for east coast Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: T.D. 8 [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83183 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:15 AM

Wondering how much of a limiting effect the ULL in front of TD-8 will have (shear) and which direction the ULL is forecast to move. Haven't had a chance to research yet.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: T.D. 8 [Re: craigm]
      #83188 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:48 AM

seeing as i am almost east coast, i am following this. checking weather.com's report they state it wont be a threat to land but needs to be monitored. seeing as it really has no where else to go other than west i think this is a threat. that frontal boundry that pushes storms to the the hurricane graveyard that usually is hovering over florida isnt there. i think we should bang our heads together and research more into this.

Weather.com's quote

"Meanwhile, a low pressure located several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands has become Tropical Depression Eight as of early this morning. Continued strengthening is forecast, with it likely becoming Tropical Storm Hanna today.

It is forecast to track northwest into the weekend, and become a hurricane by late this weekend. For now, it does not appear to be of any threat to land, but will need to be closely monitored beyond this weekend."

Edited by Evan McCone (Thu Aug 28 2008 08:49 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: T.D. 8 [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83189 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:54 AM

The weather.com report is accurate, any speculation beyond 5 days or so is just that, and the chances are low right now, but gaining. However, I'm not convinced things will maintain long enough for it to reach the coast, but I'm not convinced enough it won't either!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 838
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: craigm]
      #83193 - Thu Aug 28 2008 09:24 AM

The ULL ahead of this storm is pretty strong and is why the track is NW and then back west and even SW as depicted in the model composite. It will definitel be the feature influencing the track in the short term. It will also enhance ventilation possibly if the two features can maintain polite distances from each other. Otherwise it could be a shear machine that kills the system. So ar the distance is healthy and it is ventilating the west side of this deveoping storm.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: doug]
      #83209 - Thu Aug 28 2008 11:35 AM

Hanna is being tilted to the east by the ULL. You can see the surface circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

The ULL llooks to be sliding to the S or SW as it separates Hanna should be able to strenghten even more. Strong ridge over mid Atlantic states forecast to build in will help models verify. Only question mark is the gap in the ridge that the GFS is picking up on. This is reminding me of 04/05 when the Atlantic basin actually was ahead of the pacific in named systems which typically does not happen. Were not there yet but the next couple weeks could change things.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CrisLrmr@aol.com
Unregistered




Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: craigm]
      #83212 - Thu Aug 28 2008 12:01 PM

Hi

I am travelling from UK on Tuesday September 2nd - driving from Sanford Airport to Chiefland for a couple of days then scheduled to drive down to St Petersburg 6-11th September - then up to Orlando until 16th September. I am absolutely terrified of making this journey given the current storm forecasts - any advice/reassurance? Obviously we would appreciate the benefit of advice before we travel folk !

thanks in anticipation

Tina


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: CrisLrmr@aol.com]
      #83213 - Thu Aug 28 2008 12:19 PM

it is too soon to tell. i certainly would wait a couple days to make travel plans reguarding florida. even though gustav is going into the gulf. things can change. same with tropical storm hannah. i would wait, and follow the reports here for a couple days before making travel plans.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83215 - Thu Aug 28 2008 12:29 PM

History is interesting. The good news is that all but two storms at the same location have recurved to sea, but one of the two exceptions is Andrew:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html?MR=1

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: Ed in Va]
      #83216 - Thu Aug 28 2008 12:34 PM

Center of Hanna is now completely exposed, ULL causing quite a bit of shear. Hanna has a lot to overcome. If she can survive the next 24-48 hrs she should find herself in much better enviroment and all models will have a better handle then or could get sheared apart!!

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4

Edited by metwannabe (Thu Aug 28 2008 12:35 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 154
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: metwannabe]
      #83220 - Thu Aug 28 2008 12:51 PM

So is there any chance the ULL "takes over" and turns into a tropical system itself? It appears to me that it is starting to suck in the moisture from TD8.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: StormHound]
      #83224 - Thu Aug 28 2008 01:51 PM

That's a Negative on that stormhound, the upper low wont become a TS. The ULL will migrate W and SW and Hanna will move NW and get above it in better upper level flow and strengthen some. Hannah is going to have to deal with ALOT of shear in her future from the ULL now, to the trough moving by to her north later this weekend and then the moderate N shear from the ridging building in early next week. But the movement of Hannah should be SW so she will move partly in tandam with the shear. I do think she has a good chance to become a hurricane early next week.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: T.D. 8 (Hanna) [Re: scottsvb]
      #83230 - Thu Aug 28 2008 02:37 PM

I'm wondering if NHC pulled the trigger early on Hannah. Right now, it doesn't look like much with the LL circulation exposed. I'm thinking it could be downgraded to depression at 5PM unless there is a flair up of convection nearer the center.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Crusadier95
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: 27.99N 82.55W
Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #83237 - Thu Aug 28 2008 04:32 PM

Hanna to me seems like it will make land fall at Cape Canaviral, where it exits is TBD.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Crusadier95]
      #83240 - Thu Aug 28 2008 05:12 PM

It looks like Hanna may pull a 2004 Jeanne and do some loops before it decides where to go. Its interesting that Gustav's northern outflow could have an effect on her.

Edited by Lee-Delray (Thu Aug 28 2008 05:13 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Crusadier95]
      #83244 - Thu Aug 28 2008 06:05 PM

C95- That is impossible to determine in an evolving environment. Computer models are dealing with a fluid within a fluid. Watch the 3 day cone and beyond that watch for consensus. Right now we are starting to see what is called a squashed spider output with the future track of Hanna which means the models are losing a grip on what will happen near the end of the runs. You are better off paying attention to the immediate synoptics and beyond 3 days solutions will vary.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #83245 - Thu Aug 28 2008 06:09 PM

Hanna is showing persistence in light of the shear from the ULL in front of her. Convection is really blowing up east of the center which looks very healthy. Once she clears that influence I'm thinking the official intensity is too conservative. We will see though won't we?

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC 36.34N 77.73W
Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #83248 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:42 PM

Convection blowing up much closer to the LLC, actually may be directly over the center. Also on WV loop looks as if ULL is starting to migrate westward. As long as ULL continues to move, as projected, and convetion continues to fire (even though it may be more pulse in nature in short term) Hanna will most likely survive. Plenty of time to watch her.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Hurricane Season 2010: 15/8/4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Hanna Lounge [Re: metwannabe]
      #83252 - Thu Aug 28 2008 09:13 PM

Quote:

Convection blowing up much closer to the LLC, actually may be directly over the center. Also on WV loop looks as if ULL is starting to migrate westward. As long as ULL continues to move, as projected, and convetion continues to fire (even though it may be more pulse in nature in short term) Hanna will most likely survive. Plenty of time to watch her.





agree here that the ULL is finally starting to move to the west... maybe just south of west.... this latest blow-up of convextion on Hanna is really impressive to me... while fighting the shear on the west side.. it threw up a nice CDO this evening (in about 2hrs)... which is looking like the coc is trying to get back underneath... after watching the CMC last few runs... its intersting to see this model deepening some of the systems so fast.. but its track record is in question on the paths of the systems. i'm starting to think we could have to major canes this weekend... Hanna just seems like she's going to be in a really nice environment after this ULL moves away in the next 24 hrs

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 28 2008 09:14 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 41726

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center