Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
|
|
Quote:
the 11am advisory shifts the projected path once again to the west putting us more in the cone. however the cone has narrowed itself and the computer models are in more agreement. i am feeling preety comfortable now with the projected path . it will take a couple more updates for me to be sure of it though.
I must say that I am NOT feeling that comfortable even here on the west coast of FL which is on the extreme westerly edge of the current cone. Hanna has YET to do what the major (I.E. 'favored') models have been predicting of her. She is still moving wsw well after the time they have predicted her to begin moving nw. It just seems that SOMETHING is not being weighted properly in these equations (after all, that is what all of these models are at the core....mathematical equations using certain conditions as x, y, etc) to correctly predict Hanna's path. The narrowing of the cone is mostly because the UKMET has gone from the far west of the cone back toward the eastern part. If you are ANYWHERE in the Florida peninsula, now if not yet the time to relax with this storm....IF it holds together. Keep an eye on this cone.....the longer it takes Hanna to stop moving west and southwest, the worse those projections as looking....
--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Thank you for that update, somehow reading all the discussion and advisories and looking at the models I had failed to see whole of Florida was in the cone.
I was going to say... she has a bright ball of convection going on back near her center.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
|
|
uh oh...., speaking of models, am curious to see if in light of the now swinging more to the left with its 12Z run, if in fact the runs today will follow suit.
For the moment however, the latest ( as of 12Z today ) now shows Hanna closer and just off shore ( approx. 79W ? ) the greater Miami/Ft. Lauderdale area, and basically making landfall somewhere around W. Palm Beach, moving WNW'ward and sitting over Lake 'O in 66 hr's. This as well, is a swing to the left from both the 0Z and 6Z run. Of course, next run could be entirely the opposite.................. or greater confirmation of a possible trend to the left. More importantly, will wait and see if other models trend more westward or not.
My guess would have involved a more westward track in the short term, due to steering being controlled more by the lower levels. In fact, what "may" occur, might be this. has duly been predicting a NW motion primarily caused by Hanna being at a point, where a large and strong 594mb mid level Atlantic ridge would be practically forcing a motion towards the NW. This high has been migrating westward across the Altantic, and will continue to do so, especially as a trough off Nova Scotia eventually pulls up and out of the picture. I believe that as such, the orientation of this mid level high would have already started impacting Hanna by now. However, perhaps either by northerly 200-300mb winds aloft ( which impact shear, and much less motion ), or simply because Hanna is simply somewhat more of a shallow system due to the very shear it is fighting, this very delay in the projected NW motion, even if by 12 or 24 hours, might just cause enough of a delay so that the orientation of the building W. Atlantic ridge, might just start filling over and north of Hanna enough, then rather than an outright NW motion to ensue, we might eventually start seeing a similar but more WNW motion instead. Almost as if a storm were rather "indented" into the lower left quadrant of a westward migrating ridge, rather than simply rounding the corner of it. If this theory were correct, than I would presume that once such a motion were to start, it might be fairly slow steady motion until once again, Hanna were to round the perifiery of the high, only then.....to turn more poleward.
This scenario, whether if exact or just causing the official forecast to be tweaked more westward, would seem to place Hanna too close to the lower Florida southeast coast than exact forecasting error would allow for error. Therefore, and purely assuming that model guidance does shift more westward, and more importantly, assuming that Hanna does track a little bit more west or WNW'ward......., I cannot help but imagine that Tropical Storm Watches would have to go up perhaps as early as late tonight for at least the Palm Beach coastline, and possibly even south from there. Naturally the longer any delay in Hanna's motion were to continue, than the the less likely Watches would be necessary until perhaps tommorrow.
|
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
|
|
Last couple of frames of vis sat loop almost appears that the convection tops are able to expand northward ever so slightly, indication that the shear may be starting to relax, I'm not sure. Any thoughts?
Also the wv imagery looks as if the outflow from "Gustav" has more of a northwestward or even westard component directly over Hanna as opposed to the more northerly component it had before. Not sure what implications this would have on intensity or track.
One last thought, IF Hanna were to have significant blow up of convection (as we have seen her do) and develop a little faster, would she still have time to feel the effects of the high and turn more northward sooner?
--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
|
|
I think you are right on this:
"or simply because Hanna is simply somewhat more of a shallow system due to the very shear it is fighting, this very delay in the projected NW motion, even if by 12 or 24 hours, might just cause enough of a delay so that the orientation of the building W. Atlantic ridge,"
Seriously, I have friends who are calling me bugging out why there are no watches up anywhere as she seems so close to south florida.
Not only does the cone show a westward bias it goes inland all the way towards Atlanta yet I have heard Savannah talking on evacuating in the media.
I think the next batch of models may tell the story even if we don't like them very much across most of Florida.
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
redlevel
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 2
|
|
the latest advisory states Hannah has been drifting southeast today. So my question is how will this affect the track at 5:00pm?
|
weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
|
|
Quote:
the latest advisory states Hannah has been drifting southeast today. So my question is how will this affect the track at 5:00pm?
Well, I think it may have a small impact on the new forecast track as of 5:00pm. I believe that on one hand, given a slightly greater eastward componant, this could allow slightly more room for Hanna to ultimately slide just that much more east of the South Florida coastline. HOWEVER...........................
the latest 12Z EURO model guidance is now approx. 100 miles left ( west ) the 0Z run, and now places Hanna on the Florida coast ( around Vero Beach perhaps ), as opposed to keeping the storm offshore Florida altogether. This westward shift, along with a westward shift of the 12Z and , suggests to me that the new update might suggest slow erratic motion to continue through tonight, with a slow WNW to NW motion to commence tommorrow. I would be surprised if the cone is not at least slightly adjusted west and southward. More telling due to remaining uncertainties of motion, would be a slight adjustment of the wording of the advisory. Meaning, the recent and current forecast calls for motion towards the NW, however will be curious to see if enough uncertaintly has entered the picture where might just starting discussing motion being more WNW instead. This would be a little telling of a possibly increasing concern regarding impact to somewhere on the Central or S. Florida coastline.
To me, even more intriguing would be if remains insistant on a NW motion to commence soon, or if they were to now indicate that little or no motion might continue, and for how long. There is no doubt to me that Hanna may well traverse well east of Florida, however models are trending more westward and I am confident that the longer Hanna remains to the southeast of Florida, the greater the risk of Hanna directly impacting somewhere on the Florida coastline due to the approaching and building W. Atlantic ridge.
|
JMII
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
|
|
She just will not die! I've never seen a storm fight thru such shear. As noted before her path to the north is blocked, thus I assume the cone will keep shifting west. However at this rate Ike will run into Hanna and we'll be back to square one with both outflows tearing each other apart. This is getting rather silly. 
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
|
bahamaweather
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
Loc: Abaco, Bahamas
|
|
What do you guys think this continued stall or drift to the WSW, SW will have on the potential impacts in the northern Bahamas? The 2PM advisory had Hanna to the Southwest of Abaco as a minimal Cat 1 on Thursday morning. Do you think that intensity and location is realistic given the steady shear and continued stall?
--------------------
Erin '95, Dennis / Floyd / Irene '99, Francis / Jeanne '04
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
Well yet another day with Hanna not moving much from where it was yesterday in any even its a bit southeast of its location yesterday and is really just drifting about. Dont see much change over the next 24 hours with it likely moving little from where it is now.Hanna continue to me steered more southerly thanks to upper low in eastern Gulf combined with low in northwest Atlantic funneling southerly steering winds over Hanna. Shear remains on the high side around 20 knots or so. Expect slow and somewhat erratic movement through Wednesday before finally moving northwest. Right now my feeling is for Hanna to move northwest towards likely east central florida with possible landfall there. Not sure about a more north movement from there or a more continued northwest movement, leaning towards the first as right now I feel high will hold strong enough to drive it inland. Lean towards the solution right now. Strength wise I expect it to regain hurricane intensity as it moves up through the Bahamas and FL coast likely no more then maybe Cat 1 or low 2 at very most as I think shear may become issue again. All in all I feel low confidence in my reasoning but will see..
|
Patrick99
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
|
|
Is it possible that all the models several days ago showing a dive south were right all along?
|
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
|
|
OK Weathernet I am officially confused. Your post was excellent and I agree with your statement below
"I would be surprised if the cone is not at least slightly adjusted west and southward. More telling due to remaining uncertainties of motion, would be a slight adjustment of the wording of the advisory."
HOWEVER, are my eyes playing tricks on me or did the track shift slightly east? Not sure of the reasoning behind that shift.
--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
|
Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 489
Loc:
|
|
I think it has moved a bit to the east, pretty close to the UKMET. I wonder what implications this has for the future track predictions of Ike, where Uthe KMET is is a definitely an outlier and quite a bit to the north of the current track.
--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
|
OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
|
|
I am totoally lost on this one. Does the delay with Hanaa moving north or west mean that the ridge will deepen and move west and Hanna's track should be adjusted more west? I thought I considered that a viable position and outlook on this storm.
|
weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
|
|
[quote.....HOWEVER, are my eyes playing tricks on me or did the track shift slightly east? Not sure of the reasoning behind that shift.
Rodney~ Your probably right and although I have yet to check out the late afternoon dynamic model run, I can only assume that those at certainly know more than I do. I will also say this....., the 18Z ( as well as ) now is nudged back to the east, keeping Hanna off the Florida coast. One thing for sure, I did not get any impression from reading the cyclone discussion, that there was much indecision on their forecast. Pretty impressive to say the least. That said..........., am sticking to my guns and believe Hanna will make landfall on the Florida central or east coast, or at least close enough to spread sustained T.S. conditions at some point from Vero southward. Until I actually see a northwest motion, I am anticipating at least a short term W to WNW motion first. ( Perhaps i'll at least go out to the store and buy the "crow" now, so to save myself the trip in about 3 days - LOL ).
|
craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
|
|
Metw--The is one of the major players and it has shifted east with subsequent shift. Focus on the track error not each individual run.
--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
|
saltysenior
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 19
Loc: stuart,fl.
|
|
you are right....i must make sure the kentucky gentle man has a safe place .........one thing bad,.with all this action, the insurance co.s have plenty of ammo. for next years rates... 
|
metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
|
|
I understand the models tend to shift back and forward, always have, that is why I do have tons of confidence in the experts at and not so much in each and every model run. With that said the shows a loop and I would guess if Hanna continues to have an eastward drift that once she does turn north she will pass back over her previous points - loop. It may have been the or another model that showed this loop several days ago. So while models do flop back and forward at times their overall long term forecast is still amazingly accurate to me.
If Hanna continues to drift east and completes the loop as she is steered nw then I would think the path of the is more likely and would put SC back in the "bullseye".
--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
|
scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
|
|
Hanna has Stalled. She is waiting for the weak upper low that is to her north near 25N and 75W to move SW, Hanna should then move north then NW as she slides around the upper low. She then should continue NW then north as the ridge builds in to her east. Question mark is when will she actually start her move north and how much of a turn NW or WNW will take place, then when will she turn back north. These are the questions with Hanna. Right now models dont expect her to start moving for another 6-10hrs.
|
uprlevlo
Unregistered
|
|
whats with that massive upper level low around the north east coast? bastardi? hmm
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
