uprlevlo
Unregistered
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http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Bermuda/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO
THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.
This appears to be happening at the very southern most point of the digging trough, if you look closely you can see (on wv loop) hint at cyclonic turning in upper levels over the central Bahamas. Only thing I do not see yet is the large ULL in the n'east moving out, in fact it seems to be moving slightly to the west. This should be temporary but not sure how soon it will start to move out.
If the developing ULL does cut-off and drift south and Hanna can hang on for another 24 hrs tomorrow night at this time I would think things would, finally, for better or worse, look much different.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well I been getting alot of PMS about my forecast for Hanna and I really cant see much to change my projection of a brush with squalls and strong rip currents on floridas east coast and a probable hit from north of Charleston S.C.-Cape Lookout N.C. There is even a chance it only hits the southern outbanks and stays off the mainland. The slight east movement today is noted by the Strong upper low in the NW Atlantic with a piece of energy diving down into Cuba. A weak upper low is in the bahamas around 24N and 76W and moving SW. Hanna is stationairy and will move north and northwest as the weak upper level low moves towards the Fla Straits by later Thursday-Friday. As the ridge builds in to Hannas east with the Stronger ULL in the NW Atlantic moving out, she will move N along the edge of the ridge and make that possible landfall. The ridge will become slanted in a NE-SW angle, so Hanna may move more NE if the landfall is further up near Cape Lookout.
Florida chances of a direct hit are slim but not out of the woods cause of 1 main thing. She weakens tonight,and if so, may go with the LLF more WNW. We will see if her pressure rises tonight to over 993mb, and winds come down to 50mph or so. Remember the models are expecting her to be stronger and get pulled north faster cause of it, but if she remains weak, she will move WNW.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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What's left of Hanna is about to get a big scoop of dry air, she is a fighter so I'll guess she'll survive another day and slowly wobble north. I think she missed her chance to swing west and get close to FL, now she is cut off and must move more north-ish first. At this point I'm shocked to see she is still out there... twice yesterday all the cloud tops were blown off by the shear only to reform further south and start the whole process over again. Any normal storm would have been reduced to a depression by now after taking such a beat down.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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scary words..any normal storm, that's what makes her a concern
however she has been dancing with this ULL since she was an invest, it always inhibited her and imagine she has found a way to work around it or with it..
a local tv weather person in miami pointed out that when storms loop like this down there they often sling shot fast north once they move so.. keep watching
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-wv.html
don't see how she gets west enough for South Florida to feel much though... Carolinas and north should worry
I mean how long can she hang down there.. unless Ike is the item that blows the ULL off the map and then... well, that would be some scenario i suppose
this loop from ortt really shows it all well
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Bermuda/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif
amazingly
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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at this point ike and josephine might get into a atlantic turf gang beatdown with hanna. im just boggled its moving east though i never would have pegged that. models earlier on this week did, but it comes to a bit of a surprise. where this thing will go yet is still uncertin, even the weathermen on tv here are still very confused about this situation. i know there is a lot of factors but in my opinion, 1) if it drifts back west for a little while longer, florida will be in play. 2) if it makes that turn now, the eastern most part of florida (myself included) will see like 30 or 40 mph winds and some heavy rain squalls. from being comfortable yesterday now im uncertain.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I am feeling much better about Hanna today. with that whole turn around thing she did yesterday, I was worried about her moving too far west and Florida getting much more. But now with her looping around and beginning her northward move WITHOUT a lot of westward motion, it looks like Hanna is going to stay safely east of us here. Will get some beach erosion on the east coast, and a couple of squalls, but not much else.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Agreed. Feels better to see the cone nudged to the right. Worried though on Ike, trying not to as there is a long way to go but he is getting closer fast.
Realized from this loop that not only did Hanna move but I think the ULL has moved a bit too.
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Bermuda/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif
Our fears go north towards Cape Fear and the Carolinas.
Ike really is moving into our side of the Atlantic fast. Think the Keys are in the highest part of concern
right now.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2008&storm=9
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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JMII
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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I don't like Ike either. When Hanna finally moves on Ike will have a path (or wake) to follow. So if you take Ike's current cone then add Hanna's current cone the two overlap right on South FL's doorstep. And he has that classic "buzzsaw" look, very symmetrical and moving at a good clip. Still way too early to judge but I'm not a fan of these long tracking storms that skirt the islands... no mountains to get in the way with plenty of warm water and at some point you just know a turn to the NW around the Bermuda High is coming.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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Excellent site, can zoom in on path of any storm, see each forecast point and location by hovering over, and enable GOES while viewing. The windfield yellow stuff gets in the way, but click storms at top, unclick a storm and re-select it and leave windfield blank and it removes it. Shows Hanna's loop very well, as well as the forecast points for Ike following in her wake.
http://www.ibiseye.com/
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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but how far will the high extend at that point? therein lies the big question..
i think you just described a cape verde sort of storm 
"ong tracking storms that skirt the islands... no mountains to get in the way with plenty of warm water and at some point you just know a turn to the NW around the Bermuda High"
and sometimes they turn wnw... depends on the bermuda high...
hate to see that cone at 5...
and Hanna is sailing along at 10mph nnW that's like Nascar speed for Hanna
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I do not like the latest track for Ike at all.I really hope this changes.It would not hit any land mases until S.Florida.I will be watching Ike like a hawk from here on out.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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OK I know this is the Central Fl Hur Cen and primary focus is there. But for the handfull of us from the Tarheel state that really trust this site, any comments on Hanna as far as possible impact to NC? Last couple frames of sat loop appears to have convection firing near the center, could she still get her act together and will she make a westward move? I notice she is currently moving due north. I think scottsvb posted earlier today that her convection at that time was driven by the ULL to her sw is the convetion now being driven by her on pressure falls or still influenced by the ULL? One last thing, I notice that the huge upper level trough in the n'east is finally moving out, I that would allow the high to build in and possibly push her northwestward.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
OK I know this is the Central Fl Hur Cen and primary focus is there. But for the handfull of us from the Tarheel state that really trust this site, any comments on Hanna as far as possible impact to NC? Last couple frames of sat loop appears to have convection firing near the center, could she still get her act together and will she make a westward move? I notice she is currently moving due north. I think scottsvb posted earlier today that her convection at that time was driven by the ULL to her sw is the convetion now being driven by her on pressure falls or still influenced by the ULL? One last thing, I notice that the huge upper level trough in the n'east is finally moving out, I that would allow the high to build in and possibly push her northwestward.
It'll probably be a category 1 hurricane at landfall. Hanna lost the inner core, and as sheared as it is it would take a long time to regenerate it. If it does, then strengthening could happen quicker. The rule of thumb is to prepare for 1 category above what is projected, so I'd prepare for a Category 2 hurricane impacting your area and hoping for less.
But this is the time where local media and officials are going to be way better than anything on the internet.
One thing is to check the local hurricane statements Wilmington NC Local Hurricane Statement
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John C
Unregistered
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I still believe that IKE will push HANNA more west then predicted. But I could be wrong.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Still moving NNW, but the Satellite appearance has most of the trouble loaded on the west side, and I think it gives an appearance of going more west than it is.
The implications of Hanna going more west are much more ominous to Central Florida because of the questions that will raise about IKE. To me that would mean that high is pretty strong, and it will likely push IKE further west too.
UGH!
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doug
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Not sure if it's movement or realignment or shape. Hanna looks very subtropical to me. I am sure there is a center in there somewhere but we'll see.
Just read the discussion and they confirm what I am seeing so glad I am not losing my mind.
"very dry air associated with the upper-level low over the
northwestern Bahamas is choking off convection near the core of
Hanna...and the cyclone has a very subtropical appearance."
so... there is more moisture and less of a concentrated wind field ... a lot of hurricane history scenarios go through my mind here..
Was this forecast? Hanna going subtropical faster than expected and if so imagine she may get more to the west of track and that eastern seaboard track may ..note I said *may* be not so far fetched a scenario.
Also... good comment, very possible. Hanna is getting the squeeze play between Ike shoving at her and from the north...
"I still believe that IKE will push HANNA more west then predicted. But I could be wrong. "
Might be a problem, watch the wv carefully for this.. watch the right side of a high being pushed at Hanna from Ike?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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I think Hanna is much ado about nothing. One of the local mets in Norfolk likened it to a winter northeaster, which I think is an apt comparison. Nonetheless, the Governor has just declared a State of Emergency....ridiculous. If you cry wolf too many times, what will happen if a major hurricane like Ike comes our way...will anyone pay attention?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Yeah, as time goes on Hanna's effect on the IKE solution is less and less. Also Hanna IS NOT strong enough to really penetrate that ridge to her north.
That ridge is already pretty strong it seems.
Very interesting twist in the dynamic potentially
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doug
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Posts: 489
Loc:
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Looks like Hanna hasn't quite given up the ghost yet. Quite a bit of flare-up and getting closer to having a closed center. We saw the same thing yesterday, so this may only be a temporary situation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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