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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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gaulois
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Cape Porpoise, Maine, Miami, F...
gustav
      #82917 - Mon Aug 25 2008 06:45 PM

There are so many steering currents around Gustav that it is a forecaster's nightmare. Trough to the east of FL. Upper Low further east. High pressure & ridge basically over FL. NHS is giving it a NW trajectory, but it looks like it might go towards the left part of the current forecast zone (a bit further west) in which case it may miss the Haitian penn and then move more towards the north after. But I have a feeling that this storm is going to do some funky stuff after it passes by Hispaniola and Cuba. It may simply become a Gulf storm, who knows? Im in S.FL and do not think I want to go through a hurricane this year! (I was in Maine during 2004 an 2005 seasons).

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum, although the Forecast Lounge may have been as equally appropriate.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 25 2008 09:06 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: gustav [Re: gaulois]
      #82918 - Mon Aug 25 2008 06:52 PM

changed dramatically today too..

if you watch a water vapor loop (or IR) from this morning at 6am to 6pm I have rarely see so much change

probably why models are hesitant to come together, each takes a different steering current effect and runs with it

very hard loops to read

would like some good analysis

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: gustav [Re: gaulois]
      #82934 - Mon Aug 25 2008 09:40 PM

Models right now have that squashed spider look which means the models are all dealing with the data differently. Bottom line is weaker storm tracks further west , stronger storm wants to move poleward and will react to any weakness in steering currents to the north. Watch the 3 day cone and stay prepared.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 95L [Re: craigm]
      #83133 - Wed Aug 27 2008 04:50 PM

95L is starting to show some growth, convection near the center and other convective areas.
The models have been consistently developing this by the weekend, and shear is supposed to become more favorable.

--------------------
doug


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: 95L [Re: doug]
      #83187 - Thu Aug 28 2008 08:43 AM

Looks to me like there`s a very good chance that next week we may have the distinct possibility of two hurricanes affecting the U.S. coastlines maybe not at the same time, but one after another. At least one is for sure (GUSTAV). TD#8(Hanna) has really got my attention here in central Florida if it indeed slows down and meanders and then bends to the southwest and after 4 days take a more westerly track. Definetly something to keep an eye on over the next several days....Weatherchef

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Gustav [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #83191 - Thu Aug 28 2008 09:16 AM

All week I have been watching the trough dynamic in the midwest play out. One other feature however has stood out to me and does not get any talk as far as the future track of Gustav in the GOM. An upper low has tracked eastward along the border from SoCal/Mexico to now west Tx/Mexico. It still has eastward momentum and is on a pace that if it continues eastward it may be in the Bay of Campeche about the time Gustav enters the southern GOM. All steering currents presently are from the sw GOM northeasterly back toward the northern Florida peninsula. This is not a vigouous upper feature, and its effect on the steering flow ahead of it is to only enhance the northeasterly flow (unlike the ULL ahead of Hanna which will pull it NW and over the top of it for a while). In short, I am just not sold on the Texas/ LA solution to this yet, as the ridging I expected to begin in the wake of the trough passing through the midwest may not be occurring.
Comments welcome!

--------------------
doug


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