MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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2:10AM Update
Hurricane Gustav has been upgraded to a Category Two Hurricane.
RECON has found wind speeds of 99 to 100 mph in the NE Quadrant of Gustav.
Gustav is now ahead of the 00Z SHIPS Intensity forecast by some 36 to 48 hours.
7:00PM Update
Site move/upgrade completed.
5:42PM Update
SITE NOTE: We are moving/adjusting equipment around at 6:30PM EDT tonight and the site may be down for up to an hour while we reconfigure for a busy week.
3:20PM Update
Recon has reported Hurricane Force winds, and once again Gustav is a Hurricane (and faster than I thought would happen)
Recon reported a closed eyewall and a pressure of 980mb, with a setup that is ripe for rapid intensification in the short term. Cuba and the Caymans will have to deal with this shortly, and once in the Gulf Gustav will have a chance to hover as a major (Some shear may keep it from getting too extreme or strong, but it likely will have a chance to develop some storm surge) as it moves into the Gulf later this weekend.
Original Update
We are continuing to watch two Tropical Storms.
First, Tropical Storm Gustav, which is starting to leave Jamaica, and approach the Cayman Islands. Hurricane Warnings are up for the Cayman Islands. People there should rush preparations to completion. Beyond that, Gustav has a chance to clip the western coast of Cuba, or enter the Yucatan Channel and has a window for rapid intensification somewhere between Jamaica and the west coast of Cuba.
Once into the Gulf of Mexico, it has a chance to strengthen some, but there may be some shear to keep Gustav from getting too strong. Regardless, it is likely Gustav will be a major hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico. The Northern Gulf coast, from Northeast Texas eastward to the western part of the Florida Panhandle will have to watch. (And until Gustav shows definite movement and enters the Gulf proper, that's probably the best advice). The most likely timeframe for a US impact is Tuesday or Wednesday. Please read advisories from the National Hurricane Center over the next few days and listen to local media and officials.
But that's not all, there is tropical storm Hanna northeast of the Virgin Islands, moving northwest now, but is expected to run into a forming ridge north of the system which will likely slow movement and eventually push it back southwest, bringing the Bahamas, Florida, and the Southeast in play late next week. Hanna's forecast situation is much more complex than even Gustav's, so it will have to be monitored as well. Too soon to know here as well.
96L that was in the Bay of Campeche ran out of time and never formed. A wave in the central Caribbean has a low chance of formation, but may later, and a wave near the coast of Africa has a chance to form later.
More to come...
Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
Gustav Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gustav
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Gustav
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gustav
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gustav (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Gustav
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gustav
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gustav -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
Hanna Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Hanna
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Hanna
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Hanna
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Hanna (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Hanna
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Hanna
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Hanna -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
97L Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 97L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 97L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 30 2008 02:46 AM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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question for a met....i have seen a number of north moving landfalling hurricanes (Dennis, Erin, Opal, , and ) when they begin to interact with land, make a jump to the right. erin and moved most noticable, and about 50 miles. Is there any scientific eveidence that supports this, or is it all coincidence?
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Mobile NWS key point from there morning disco
Quote:
THE NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL BE DOWN THERE TONIGHT GETTING A
MUCH BETTER LOOK AT THE COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
GULF. THE MORE DETAILED DATA FROM THOSE MISSIONS SHOULD START
GETTING INTO THE TRACK MODELS AND SHOULD HELP THE NWS GAIN A
SOMEWHAT CLEARER PICTURE AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK EVOLUTION OF
GUSTAV. STAY TUNED.
How soon before we start seeing this data in the new model runs ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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We're opening up the main page to talk of the forecast tracks of Hanna and Gustav, and 97L that just formed. We're dropping some of the rules and moderation of the main page about models and the lounges for Hanna and Gustav. (still no-content/alarmist posts). The lounges are for what they are intended, making gut feeling or guesses about the storms, and discussions of models, etc are now welcome here too.
97L was just indicated, it's the wave off Africa, and is now on the main page too.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Have a real question here..
Generally speaking...when a storm becomes a cat 3 or 4.. what does the high aloft usually do to track
is there any pattern or each storm is its own ..
do they lean right or left or poleward?
Really, this is amazing. So many storms and Gustav is really pumping. yes, he has dry air in there but his eye really does pop out and he will go over very hot water
as for hanna... she's a fighter, fought off that ULL and if that ULL disapeers and the high does build in she is more a certainity I think that Gustav as if he becomes a Cat 3 or higher he will have one heck of a high aloft over him, his own high I may add and that may change things just a bit..
either way the consistency of the models for the gulf make me nervous, its like nothing budges them.. yes a wide cone on the 5th day but this is exasperatingly slow for people to keep watching them spin and worry
and if Ike forms out of the African system.. not even sure what will be as am so busy staring at these two to worry on him, if he forms..
this is one year for tropical storms and I keep thinking that we never really got to use models and sats to play with Betsy, she just drove forecasters crazy stalling and changing direction but somehow this time around with a possibly similar storm we get to watch how the strangeness of her track panned out..
very similar.. and again hit FL/LA.. something to think on down the road not now..
this is the time to prepare and not panic
but heat of the water down below gusav is hot
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Go back and look at the FAY forecast models.
The CW had them being all over the map, but I think they did a good job.
Note this 5(?)AM how the OFCI(?) was the first to zig zag and now in the latest 12Z
several are zig zagging, and moving towards Galveston.
Note also that the two different tracks, one into Houma, and the one into Galveston
are off by a day. 96 and 120 are right on top of each other.
Next 24 hrs will decide.
I think stall just north of Houma at this time. And a dollar gets you a cup of coffee.
James
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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I'm no met, but I found 's 24-hour precipitation model ending late the 31st to be pretty fascinating. It looks as though Gustav could bring some hefty rain amounts into Florida as he passes (see attachment), especially South Florida.
Here's the URL: FSU's model
Everyone needs to keep aware this weekend.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well someone is about to peak out an eye soon! who's peaking out? I'm going with a Cat 3 to a weak 4 within the next 24-36hrs... i expect the rapid intensification is under way on Gustav and i think he could reach a stong hurricane before running across the western tip of Cuba... i expect will will see some amazing pressure drops in the next day or two... and once Gustav hits the loop current i think the only limiting factor is going to be like the notes.. the nw shear in the northern GOM, which should help keep Gustav from getting to well organized and expanding its wind field.
~edit.. brain fart.. there's 24hrs in a day... duh not 36
and by the way...incase you haven't read!!! He's BACK!!! so important that the placed the article on the main page! Guess who's back?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 29 2008 01:45 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a quick run down of new information.
Hanna is getting recon on Sunday, Gustav T numbers are going up,so it's likely to regain hurricane strength by next morning. I'll be watching the Recon reports, models are sliding more westerly for Gustav, but still in general are not all that reliable.
The site still needs more work, but is good enough for this week. Although it gets a little unstable when we get >1500 users at the same time like we have been.
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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
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WE Have Hurricane G agian!
Hurricane GUSTAV Update
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive UPDATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT62 KNHC 291915
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow that was fast. With the atmosphere and setup now, it is possible for Gustav to enter a rapid intensification phase, those in the Caymans should be prepared.
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Stormin_thru
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc:
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Hello all,
I was wonder if perhaps I was off here but in the vortex message is shows surface winds of more than 75mph. See below. Is Gustav up to about 90mph?
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 19:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°59'N 79°24'W (18.9833N 79.4W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the E (100°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,924m (9,593ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the E (82°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 71kts (From the SSE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:02:40Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
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cate
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 13
Loc: Florida
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Looks like our neighbors on the Gulf Coast must make some hard choices soon. HG doesn't seem to waste any time getting back up to strength given the chance. Can't wait for the new models at 5EDT. Seems rare to me to have the models in such agreement this far out of landfall on the Gulf Coast. Do any mets in the forum disagree with what is currently out there?
Hanna and Ike worry me for the SE FL coast (where I live). I'm too old, too ill, and too stressed out to go thru another hit like , Jeanne, and , or even a brush with TS like Fay.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The eye is getting clearer and more circular in almost every frame right now on vis. I'll say probably a 10mb (since 2p) drop by 5pm if not more. Are all 5 indicators for rapid intensification satisfied right now? I think they are. Here is the link if someone wants a look at it. Table is also attached
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/rapid_table1.html
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Fri Aug 29 2008 04:24 PM)
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lsutigerfan
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Mike,
you stated in an earlier post that you did NOT think that this will be a New Orleans storm!
Do you still feel that way?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Stick with the track and the cone, Northeast Texas to the Western Florida Panhandle, that's about all I can say really. Wait until it gets past Cuba -- I don't think (and hope) it will be a New Orleans storm but that was just a lounge thought and by no means correct, I said it probablty would lean more south/westward and it did toward Jamaica, but it doesn't look like it will get as close to the Yucatan as I thought. I don't know about the long term.
I still think being proactive preparation wise anywhere in that cone is a good move. They did move that LSU game up to 10AM CDT.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Well, Gustav is starting to intensify... quickly, latest pass had the pressure down to 975mb. It'll take another hour or two to verify if this is going to be in the RI catagory. However NO isn't taking any chances and May Begin Evacuations Tomorrow. I'm not even willing to make a best guess estimate. I think the has a good handle on the storm.
Hanna, isn't something to worry about quite yet. and with luck we won't have to. (but still keep an eye on it)!
As far as the rest of the wave train. that shouldn't even be a worry. 
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Watches put up for lower keys.
5 day cone just offshore miami for hanna. Wondering if Bimini is in the cone.
Hanna looks stronger than the advisory shows
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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SITE NOTE: We are moving/adjusting equipment around at 6:30PM EDT tonight and the site may be down for up to an hour while we reconfigure for a busy week.
Edit:
Move/update completed.
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Hanna, isn't something to worry about quite yet. and with luck we won't have to. (but still keep an eye on it)!
As far as the rest of the wave train. that shouldn't even be a worry.
I've had a disconcerting thought concerning the future of Hanna. What if, in making her way south and west around the ridge over Florida, she ends up taking more or less the same track Gustav took, and makes a second landfall over the same area of coastline about a week after Gustav came ashore? That would be a very nasty mess. Of course, with a good chunk of Cuba and the cold upwelling left behind Gustav, Hanna probably wouldn't be as powerful.
Gustav is looking a lot better, and this storm will be something to keep an eye on as time passes.
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