RevUp
Weather Guru
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This will be quite a week for residents and emergency response workers around Louisiana (Gus) and up the East coast (Hanna). I pray for all those near the path of these storms (past and future) - for safety and peace of mind.
There may be wobbles and wiggles with Gus and Hanna, but has been doing a great job keeping up with these storms (yes, the public needs to focus more on the forecast cone and not so much on the points and lines). Gustav continues to restrengthen as we speak, and looks like a monster for N.O., Louisiana and southern MS (especially since the trough currently moving thru the northern Rockies into the Midwest won't likely be enough to lift it out of the region entirely).
Meanwhile, Hanna bears watching for several more days until it finally gets enough steam together and accelerates northward.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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I wouldn't have figured Hanna to be the storm to strengthen overnight while Gustav weakened, but there is a reason that intensity forecasting is extremely difficult. Gustav is struggling right now and does not have a terribly organized presentation on satellite or radar. There are no obvious reasons for why it has continued to weaken, other than some possible organizational malfunctions introduced by passing over Cuba or from the still slightly sheared environment. Its window for significant reintensification will be slowly closing throughout the day. Hopefully, that window closes with no major increase in intensity.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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One consequence of Gustav maintaining a slightly further east track than expected is that it will only be skirting the warm loop current (see map link below) of the Gulf, rather than moving directly over it if it was just a little further west. It will be moving over part of that loop current in the short term, but it has less than 12 hours before it will find itself over a cooler eddy again.
Heat content map for the Gulf:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008242go.jpg
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Gustav looks as though its west side is iver he loop current and strengthening, and what I had been following off of cuba as the "eye" seems to no longer be the center of circulation...strange ....it is hard to tell
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Tomball, TX
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It appears on the latest sat. loop that the center is still tracking along the predicted path. The big convective blow up on the western side of Gustav and the absence of a visibile eye earlier gave the appearance that it may have shifted somewhat to the left.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Latest vortex recon only found 76kt surface winds. That's category 1. The system looks poor on satellite, with most of the convection east and southeast of the center. Between the WV and IR loops, it looks to be having a real problem firing up any sort of convection in the NE quadrant Not sure why this is - perhaps a met could help?
If the system is going to grow, it has to reorganize in the next six hours while still near the loop current. Otherwise, the cool eddies will impede future growth.
Edit: And just as I post this, the last frame of IR and Water Vapor indicate the eye is reforming with convection in all quadrants. Also, convection firing north of the storm now, and starting to wrap south.
Edit 2: Appears is using data outside the vortex recon and has issued their 11am forcast advisory with 120mph initial winds. I'm guessing they are seeing winds in quadrants not crossed by the aircraft.
Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Aug 31 2008 02:51 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Ok Gustav looks on track towards the Lake Charles area BUT NOLA will get at least a min hurricane out of this as it will come within 50miles of NOLA + on top of that NOLA will be on the eastern side of Gustav. Heavy rains, tornados, flooding...just a mess. Any deviation to the right will bring the Cat 2 + winds to NOLA. I hope everyone from Biloxi,Ms-all of LA coastline is prepared or will be by sunset as this makes landfall Monday late in the day or later that night.
With Hanna, I have a beef with the and I usually dont go against my fellow friends there , but what are they looking at? First off, the center isn't where they have it @ 23.3N and 70W, The center is @ 24N and 70.7W. That is a big difference really! The intensity is correct, but also some of the reasoning just isnt there. First off a weaker system will follow the Ukmets solution (as they did note but didnt say why) while a stronger system will go along more with the and and stall her as she gets traped between ridges and axis trough digging down from the north. Right now the trough axis is progressing ever so slightly slower than the 0z and 6z runs have showed and Hanna is a weaker system and will probably go with the LLF towards the SE Bahama chain (ala Ukmet-CMC-Lbar) and I hate to use them models but in this case, they could be right on. Now if Hanna does somehow get SW and strengthens into a strong TS by later tonight, then it be interesting on where this happens and what are the varibles of the ridges, gustav prox, upper trough axis strength and postion to her N + more.
Right now I cant make a forecast on Hanna until Monday afternoon, and will do so in the Hanna forecast lounge, but I want to see what evolves today into tonight, and lets get the 1st thing straight, and thats the location of the center near 24N and 70.7W moving W@10mph and will start moving WSW later today into tonight!
scottsvb
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The easiest explanation for the asymmetric organization of Gustav is that the western half of the storm is over the loop current, while the eastern half mostly is not. Meteorological explanations rarely turn out to be so simple, though, so there are probably some other issues involved. Gustav's inner core has been disorganized since leaving Cuba, as indicated by its elliptical shape and ill-defined presentation on satellite.
Gustav is not a healthy looking tropical cyclone at the moment. The clear area that is occasionally showing up on satellite is not really an eye... it is very close to the center, but it more indicative of a lack of convection in the eastern half of the eyewall. The last couple of IR images show what looks like a ring of intense convection surrounding a slightly clearer area well to the SE of the clear area mentioned above. Do not be fooled, that is not where the center of the storm is. Looking at a satellite loop will make that clear, though looking at a static image may give the wrong impression.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've been monitoring the Evacuation Traffic reports on 870 AM WWL in New Orleans.
http://www.wwl.com
http://wwlhurricanecentral.com/pages/580958.php
At this time 11 AM CDT, it's taking 2 hours to travel the 30 mile stretch to the end of the MS Contraflow at Poplarville,MS.
Last check of I-10 East bound to Mobile,AL was a 7 hour, that's seven hour drive.
I'll check a bit more and post it here.
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 31 2008 04:18 PM)
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Following up Daniel's post, traffic on I-10 East at the FL/AL line is running four to five times normal but US-29 (the upper left most cross link) seems to be running normal.
I have noticed that Google and other local area traffic cams are showing very little traffic on the roads but folks need to be aware those sites could be not reporting properly.
Also, attached to this post is a graphic from the Oil Drum showing the energy infrastructure and damage models around NO.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Using the latest Advisory # 28. is predicting landfall in Terrebone Bay, LA near 7 AM Monday morning. That is based on current forward motion and model guidance.
Latest SHIPS model has the system slowing down significantly after 36 hours. Which would lead to a torrential rain producer.
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RU12
Registered User
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Posts: 8
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We've been told by the local media to expect a 7'-8' surge in Jackson County, MS but to be prepared for a 14' surge if the storm comes in east of New Orleans. Mayor of Biloxi calling for a mandatory evacuation just to the west of us in Harrison County. Still looks like the storm needs to have a bend to the left to follow track. I keep thinking it is guiding right of the forcast but trust that the mets have got the correct track. We're prepared in any event as we've implemented our plan. Good luck and our prayers to all in the path of this storm.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/html/tropical.htm
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A POTENTIAL STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
TO THE RIGHT OF LOCATION OF LANDFALL. LIFE THREATENING FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. SECTIONS OF WEST JEFFERSON...AND LOWER LAFOURCHE
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES COULD BE OVER TOPPED. AREAS OUTSIDE OF
HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES...WILL BE SEVERELY INUNDATED.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/
Latest Hurricane Local Statement for SE LA and S MS
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
ON MONDAY MORNING. STARTING MONDAY MORNING...THE MAXIMUM TOTAL STORM
TIDE COULD REACH 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG SOUTHERN MOBILE COUNTY FROM CEDAR
POINT WESTWARD ACROSS PORTERSVILLE BAY...CODEN AND BAYOU LA BATRE.
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY...TOTAL STORM TIDE FROM THE
FOWL RIVER AREA NORTH ACROSS THE THEODORE INDUSTRIAL CANAL...DOG
RIVER...TO THE ALABAMA STATE DOCKS AND PORT OF MOBILE COULD REACH 4
TO 6 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF MOBILE BAY
AND SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY...TOTAL STORM TIDE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 4 TO 6 FEET. WE ARE ENTERING INTO A NEAP TIDE CYCLE AS GUSTAV
MAKES LANDFALL...SO THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE
IN THE OVERALL STORM TIDE HEIGHT.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH WINDS
AND EXTREMELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE
THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF...DO NOT ENTER THE WATER
UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/getprodversion.php?pil=HLS&sid=MOB&version=0&max=50
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...THE CENTER OF
HURRICANE GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THE MAXIMUM TOTAL STORM TIDE COULD
REACH 2 TO 4 FEET IN SOME AREAS...MAINLY OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA...INCLUDING PENSACOLA. WE ARE ENTERING INTO A
NEAP TIDE CYCLE AS GUSTAV MAKES LANDFALL...SO THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE IN THE OVERALL STORM TIDE HEIGHT.
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DWard
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Molino, FL (N of Pensacola)
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Please excuse the one line post. I live here in Pensacola, FL. I have been out on the road this morning and traffic was fine on both I-10 and Hwy 29.
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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My Brother Scott, registered here as 'flanewscameraman' is now in N.O. He has a satellite phone and I will try and post some real time updates if he can get through. He is telling me N.O. is like a ghost town right now with a pretty good National Guard presence. Looks like they are doing it right this time.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
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i am posting this from the New Orleans EOC. Yes....the city is empty. Traveling thru the city is scary.....one of my team members said it was like a bad "zombie" movie.
Surprisingly. evacuating the city went smoother than expected. We were coordinating the last few special needs evacuees. Kudos to the CERT and Red Cross volunteers. We could not have done it without them.
We are still preparing for the "mother of all storms" but it is looking to be a tad more west and hopefully a little bit weaker. The only chance for NOAL is if the wind and storm surge stays down. We're ready.....but hopefull.
I am not going to give any weather update from here....you all are getting that already. I will try to provide another update sooner or later....
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Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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I believe this 5-day forecast precip map tells the tale for a significantly large area to be affected by Gustav as it slows down and rains itself out over Louisiana.
5 day precip fcst
Visible imagery continues to show Gustav moving NW along forecast track and at least maintaining, if not increasing, in strength. The next 12-18 hours will determine whether we're looking at a cat 3 or cat 4 storm -- either way, it's a major hurricane.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
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Quote:
At this time 11 AM CDT, it's taking 2 hours to travel the 30 mile stretch to the end of the MS Contraflow at Poplarville,MS. Last check of I-10 East bound to Mobile,AL was a 7 hour, that's seven hour drive.
I'll check a bit more and post it here.
Regarding the traffic/evac, I've been watching the all the news channels showing reporters standing on various highways in MS and LA with contraflow in affect, and one side is totally jammed up while the contraflow side has just a few cars. Not to be critical, but why can't they get out there with a few bulldozers and break out a quarter mile of those concrete barriers to make the other lanes available? And where there is a grass median between them just come in and dump a few loads of (readily available) gravel as a temporary crossover.
Sorry to vent or be an armchair quarterback; feel free to move or delete.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just FYI that Met Blog has been updated. This post inserted to prevent linkage of follow on posts to some posts that were moved to another Forum. Please respond to this post with your continuing dialogue so that we can correct the linkage.
Thanks,
ED
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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My apologies if this post belongs in another forum... but I wanted to pass along a bit of a traffic update to anyone who is still evacuating. I-10 from Gulfport to Mobile was a parking lot from 6:30-9:30am this morning... which is how long it took us to traverse that route. There were some other traffic jams around Mobile/Pensacola as well... a normal 3 hour trip took 6 hours. If you're going to be doing any traveling, I recommend avoiding I-10 (although you really should head north anyway).
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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