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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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FIREREALTY
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
Loc: BOCA RATON, FL 26.36N 80.17W
Re: conflicting signs [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #83598 - Sun Aug 31 2008 08:21 PM

I'm watching the MSNBC coverage and their radar pic,,is it me or am I seeing this getting tighter in the core red area and appears becoming more symmetrical- well developed ?? I'm no meterologist but,,that info earlier from "kermit" flight tends to support what I am seeing ??

-- just saw Dir of NHC on MSNBC confirm what i saw,,some strengthening is happening now and possibly hi 3/4 at landfall,,it is gainng strength as it approaches LA. (I thought it was me..

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Aug 31 2008 09:21 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: conflicting signs [Re: FIREREALTY]
      #83601 - Sun Aug 31 2008 08:39 PM

eye is visible on no radar.....here in pensacola we have a band coming thru now....wind gusts at 40mph

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: conflicting signs [Re: pcola]
      #83602 - Sun Aug 31 2008 08:44 PM

I live here in Tallahassee. They opened some shelters here for evacuees. Looking at Tallahassee radar I can see the outer bands just offshore of the Florida big bend. Is it likely those will reach us here in Tally or due the NW motion they will stay off shore?

Thanks

Edited by flahurricane (Sun Aug 31 2008 08:44 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: conflicting signs [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #83603 - Sun Aug 31 2008 08:54 PM

I am starting to see some "green" on that Funk radar loop...aren't those the coldest cloud tops that would indicate strengthening? Also .. I know it's probably the satellite loop jumping .. but it looks like it took a jog to the north.
CNN reporting latest recon is reporting 953mb as of last dropsonde.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: conflicting signs [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83604 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:17 PM

just read that there is a tornado watch about to be issued for the central gulf coast... see meso discussion 2193

also there appears to be a problem with AF recon 303.. they were the next recon to head into the GOM from Homestead.. got about 100 miles from land and have turned around and are heading back... last RECO msg. sayes Concluded (Last Report) at 1:09z

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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 31 2008 09:19 PM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: conflicting signs [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #83606 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:40 PM

For those wanting to watch live TV broadcast from the area click the link.

They are currently saying locally they don't expect Gustav to weaken much more.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 567
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Concern [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #83607 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:45 PM

I am quite concerned about the tendency of these storms to jog east upon approach to land in this region. Especially since I have heard some of the talking heads earlier this afternoon proclaiming good news that the forecast is shifting west. Add to the fact that the news channels seem to be drawing a tighter cone than NHC. CNN currently has NO outside the cone in its continuous graphic.

I certainly still feel that a slight wobble is enough to make the diff between a glancing blow and a direct hit. I just hope that the mis-statements of talking heads do not lead to a false sense of security.

--------------------
Jim


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Concern [Re: Rasvar]
      #83608 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:02 PM

I understand and agree with your concern, Rasvar. Hopefully, the people that are in the direct path of this storm are watching local broadcasts instead of watching the "Talking Heads" on the major cable news channels who are making this a political event.
Right now, we are all Red, White and Blue...and I am more concerned about what the storm is doing than how this will affect any politicians.
This is a serious storm and it should not be played out in order to get the best ratings.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Concern [Re: scottsvb]
      #83612 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:30 PM

Weather changes more often than the News. And is often more interesting. Or worse for wear.
Case in point... Gustav

By the way. Hannah currently has deeper convection than Gustav does and is more symmetrical.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Concern [Re: scottsvb]
      #83613 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:31 PM

Pressure just measured at 950mb. Thats 7mb lower than last update.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Hanna [Re: scottsvb]
      #83614 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:32 PM

Ok..let's get off the subject of the media. I know that Gustav is the main concern right now (rightfully so) but look at Hanna:

Hanna

We need to make sure we keep our eyes on her...that being said, Gustav looks like he is once again gathering steam.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Hanna [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83617 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:37 PM

Speaking of Hanna, Microwave shows internal structure starting to form.

Compare microwave from two and a half hours ago to five hours ago.

Edit: Fixed links

Edited by Random Chaos (Sun Aug 31 2008 10:40 PM)


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Hanna [Re: Random Chaos]
      #83618 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:42 PM

Pressure 955mb.... winds 129.9mph! as of 10:42pm est

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Gustov [Re: flahurricane]
      #83619 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:46 PM

130mph is flight level, not surface. SFMR surface estimates are only about 100mph.

Additionally, eye is open south again. He's still having trouble getting the core organization fixed after Cuba.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hanna [Re: Random Chaos]
      #83620 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:47 PM

Hanna is located @ 2 different areas. 23.7N and 72.2W by Satellite, but also bouy showed it might actually be racing out further west near 23.5N and 73W, though it might be a vortex swirl. Still moving west. If this trend continues for another 12hrs then she will be near 75W by then.

Gustav is still a Cat 3 and will make landfall as a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3 from Morgan City-Lake Charles. My projection a week ago (Monday) from different model data gave me a landfall from Lake Charles- Upper Tx Coast.


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Troy C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 10
Loc: Satellite beach, FL 28.20N 80.60W
Re: Hanna [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83623 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:00 PM

Looking at the link Coleen provided, it appears that Hanna's center may be trying to relocate/reform a bit further south than where the plotted location is.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hanna [Re: Troy C]
      #83624 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:11 AM

Looks like the 0z GFS has shifted a bit to the west from its previous 18Z plot. This brings Hanna's center that much closer to the east coast. I sense a trend here, particularly with the 18Z NOGAPS shift west and the UKMET holding firm. This will affect the GFDL output. Hmmmmm.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Hanna [Re: Random Chaos]
      #83625 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:20 AM

The microwave passes provided above are poor choices to use when trying to ascertain whether or not internals are improving within a sub-hurricane tropical cyclone. Specifically, the PCT (Polarization Corrected Temperature) mode is best used to isolate deep convection, and not necessarily internal structure. Therefore, while it is at times quite good when looking at well-developed tropical storms and most hurricanes, it fails to help much if at all when things aren't already all "there."

You can read more about the benefits and drawbacks of PCT here.


Below is a portion of that tutorial
Quote:


The PCT image isolates convection within tropical cyclones and thereby allows an easy-to-understand introduction to the ability of the SSM/Ito detect precipitation. It is sensitive to snowflakes above the freezing level, and thus gives an effective view of conditions aloft in a storm. Although the PCT is a vertical integration, it can be thought of as showing precipitation at roughly 5 to 9 km, or15 to 30 thousand feet.

The Polarization Corrected Temperature (PCT) image combines the two polarizations of the 85 GHz channels. It enhances convection and virtually eliminates low-level clouds and ocean characteristics.




What is key in that explanation is that PCT "virtually eliminates low-level clouds." It might be great at picking up on afternoon thunderstorms, but that doesn't help much with Hanna.


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Wrong Number Bassist
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana [Re: MikeC]
      #83627 - Mon Sep 01 2008 01:01 AM

Hey, I ussually come to this website to get information about hurricanes (I live in lafayette louisiana). Anyway, I saw yall had a bunch of websites for tv stations in new orleans on the front page, but if you want some other insight, lafayette is predicted to get some of the worst weather from the entire storm, both west and east side of the eyewall on its path, and www.katc.com will be streaming the emergency newscast on the internet even after power goes out so if you are interested in watching some up to the minute stuff, you can go there. Wall to wall coverage starts at 3AM, I know, I'm a camera guy for the station. Wish me luck and take it easy.

Edited by Wrong Number Bassist (Mon Sep 01 2008 01:03 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana [Re: Wrong Number Bassist]
      #83629 - Mon Sep 01 2008 05:15 AM

Last three vortex recons: no eye found.

Land based radar: no sign of any eye.

Looks like Gustov's central structure has fallen apart. I doubt it has the time to get back together before landfall.


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