Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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have to say I think it has trended about 10 degrees right of the track, which isn't a big difference, however when you're dealing with a major storm, it changed dramatically who's going to be impacted. (again people shouldn't just look at the line, look at the entire cone and keep prepared!)
That being said, the lated HH has the pressure down to around 939mb as of 2:35. so the storm is still Intensifying Rapidly. It's getting close to Cuba, so the intensification has to stop soon, but it still has another few hours before the land interaction will disrupt the storm. I just hope Cuba's ready for this one. I don't know if people expected it to be quite this strong as it headed north.
The next 3 days, I think the has a good handle on things, and being slightly off is to be expected (5 day errors of 300 miles is average, remember). Anyone from Houston to Mobile has to keep an eye on this thing. and if I were in the Florida panhandle and on the Texas coast south of Houston, I'd still be watching closely in case something unexpected does happen.
Good luck to everyone in the path.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Just want to point out MODIS's Terra satellite took a spectacular picture of Gustov a couple hours ago:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realt...3160501.1km.jpg
Be sure to zoom in using the alternate sizes on the left.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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5pm winds up 150mph... pressure to 942mb and new hurricane watch up for the gulf coast... and tropical storm watch up...
eye is getting smaller... want be long til first to take affect.. most likely over land of Cuba
(I had already updated the main page with the information and Gustav statistics for the 5pm advisory so there is no need to do so here... Thanks!
John)
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Aug 30 2008 05:45 PM)
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smorse22
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl
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Does Gustav look like it went alittle north after it passed the little body of land (not sure what it is)? I understand that it's probably a wobble but it has slowly been moving to the right throughout the day. But the track seems not to change. Just wanted to get your thoughts. After looking at the second link. I believe it did move north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Edited by smorse22 (Sat Aug 30 2008 05:22 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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And now as of 5pm...150mph hour!
It will interesting to see what affects Cuba has on this... The elevations of Cuba are not nearly as tall as Hisp. They do not disrupt the boundary layer flow as they only extend to around 1,500' on the western end of the island. This should impede some on the circulation, but I believe fully that a very dangerous and powerful hurricane will emerge on the northern coast of Cuba. After that, wow - this goes bodily across the Loop Current with almost no shear in the deep layer.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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That would be the Isle of Youth you're referring to.
What is keeping on their path prediction(s) is the model guidance. If you click on the picture of the 5 day map of Gustav to the left here and scroll down to view 's map, you'll clearly see what the is seeing and hence the reasoning behind their estimates.
You'll note that all the models are in excellent agreement...until Gustav moves inland, it is only then that you'll see some deviation between them.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Quote:
Does Gustav look like it went alittle north after it passed the little body of land (not sure what it is)? I understand that it's probably a wobble but it has slowly been moving to the right throughout the day. But the track seems not to change. Just wanted to get your thoughts. After looking at the second link. I believe it did move north.
First, that 'little body of land' is known as the Isle of Youth. It was known as the Isle of Pines until about 1978. Population of about 100,000. And yes, it sure looks to me like the eye has wobbled more north than west since about 10am this morning. Hope it is a wobble and any trend in that direction puts the effects of this thing much closer to the Fl west coast. We are already seeing enhanced storms and showers today in what seems like early spiral patterns across the state. Pretty active too. Keeping my fingers crossed and prayers going out for all in the path!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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The Latest track has Hanna moving in a more WNW direction. Not only this, but all the models except the UKMET have Hanna heading either for northern Florida or even Georgia. (What happened to the prediction that it was headed to Miami or even Cuba?!). So far, no models are predicting a hurricane, but how much confidence would you place in these models?
Is Hanna likely to become a real threat to Florida?
Thanks,
VS
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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The last few radar and sat clips indicate that at least for the last 1 1/2 hours that Gustav has moved on a more northerly track as it approaches the southern coast of Cuba. If after passing over Cuba and into the Gulf this trend continues then I am sure that models as well as the will take note. The storm has been tracking east of the projected targets all day long but this past 1 1/2 hours was a more pronounced northerly shift ? or wobble.
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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I personally, wouldn't put too much stock in those models right now. Until the ULL fully pulls off and the high sets in, the models are going to change on just about every run. Just read the 5pm Disco...NHC has very low confidence in them at the present time.
It's hurricane season as you know, and as a Floridian, I would hope you already have hurricane supplies and a solid plan in place and ready for a potential storm regardless of Hanna or not.
If it comes, it comes...nothing you can do about that. All you can do is be prepared and stay informed. Just don't watch too much or you'll just drive yourself bonkers!! 
Edited by native (Sat Aug 30 2008 06:03 PM)
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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jf,
Gustav has wobbled slightly to the NNW over the past couple of hours, but this is almost certainly just a wobble. With Gustav's clearly defined eye, we are able to see very slight wobbles that usually go unnoticed when tracking more poorly defined systems.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
It kind of looks that way at the moment.
I was looking at the bouy info in the Keys and things are starting to get blustry.
Sand Key Fl:
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 34 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 37 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.6 °F
Polaska Shoal Light:
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 28 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 32 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.2 °F
Sombraro Key:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 24 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 26 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
Salinity (SAL): 30.48 psu
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.9 °F
Tide (above MLLW) (TIDE): 0.97 ft
Heat Index (HEAT): 84.9 °F
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jf
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
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Gustav has come ashore at the narrowest point in Cuba and likely will not be affected by the land mass, other than a temporary abatement of its growth. Once over the warm waters of the Gulf it's anything goes.
It seems as though when the satelites are taking photos of the various storms , if they are not directly over the storm , the results of the photos are somewhat misleading.
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watchinout
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
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I'm not an expert but i've seen on here in the past if a storms outer bans are being pulled in a certain direction then that's the direction the storm is traveling in. Does'nt it look like these outer bans are being pulled more to the due north. Also can someone tell me why if Gus is'nt suppose to come toward Florida because of the ridge over us then how come the outer bans are'nt being affected by this ridge.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I looked at this same trend early this morning and noted during the past 24 hours it is NNW and currently on a direct line to the Bootheville, LA; the mouth of the Mississippi River. My biggest concern for New Orleans is Gustav's forward speed and when the upper ridge is likely to be in place over the NE US and able to steer Gustav more westward of it's current vector. Any slight deviation to the right and this is the worse case scenario for New Orleans given the topography and the amount of water Gustav is likely to pile up in that area. My prayers are with Abbeville and all the South Central LA coast; and hope this time everybody gets out of the way. I live in the Auburn-Opelika, Alabama and we received 6 inches of rain from Fay; we don't need any gale force winds, or any part of Fay's track last week getting any high winds, but that pales to our neighbors to our SW. To those of you down there, we will be thinking of you for the foreseeable future; Godspeed to all of you.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Ronn
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
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watchinout,
Gustav has enhanced Florida's usual afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. On satellite imagery, this is resulting in the exaggerated appearance of Gustav's cloud structure being elongated south to north. In some cases, this can indicate the future direction a storm will take. This is not true in Gustav's case. The enhancement of convective activity over the Florida peninsula is painting a somewhat misleading picture.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It does appear that even with the wobbles Gustav had today, he is now clearly on a NW path...at quite a good clip, too. But we must also keep this in mind: this storm is HUGE...and will impact a lot of people, not just NOLA.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I noticed on the last vortex msg that the Temp outside the eye was 10c and inside the eye was 22c. The dewpoint outside the eye was 6c. Thats a HUGE amount of energy coming out of this storm. I dont think had that kind of temp difference.
EDIT...I looked in the archives and when had a pressure of 908mb the temp inside the eye was 25c and outside was 13c and the outside dewpoint was 17c. Perhaps one of the mets can explain this (cause I'm not even that sure of how significant it is)
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Sat Aug 30 2008 08:17 PM)
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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
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This from the advisory for the US landfall
A POTENTIAL STORM SURGE OF 15 TO 20 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
TO THE RIGHT OF LOCATION OF LANDFALL OF HURRICANE GUSTAV .
and this for the advisory for Cuba: COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES
If New Orleans gets hit by a 20+ foot storm surge and Cat4 winds at the same time I cannot image the city surviving this. I just hope and pray that this will hapeen at low tide. Does anybody know?
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Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Fortunately, NOLA is not exactly located right on the coast. There is plenty of lowland and swamp south of the city that helps to absorb storm surges. However, much of the city is below sea level, so an extended period of heavy rain coupled with a storm surge will put extraordinary stress on the city's flood control devices. You can't pump water out if there's nowhere to pump it to.
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Michael
PWS
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