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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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watchinout
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 17
Ike Lounge
      #83622 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:54 PM

I know we been talking about Gus alot and Hanna is looking alot better. But far out to the east I don't think 97L is 97L anymore it looks like a depression or tropical storm to me what do yall think ?

(Started a 97L Lounge with this post.)

Edited by MikeC (Mon Sep 01 2008 02:43 PM)


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: 97L Lounge [Re: watchinout]
      #83626 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:51 AM

Yea I agree it looks like we might have tropical depression or tropical storm ike out there already .

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1090
Loc: Lexington, Ky 30.40N 97.80W
Re: 97L Lounge [Re: watchinout]
      #83630 - Mon Sep 01 2008 05:57 AM

Highly likely that 97L is already a TD. NHC has had their hands a little full overnight, but with a little more daylight and perhaps a microwave and a better scatt pass or two on the way, it seems reasonable to presume that it gets declared 09L today (Monday) and given how it has been improving so far, with nothing looking terribly problematic for it in the near-term, perhaps also becomes Ike by tonight or tomorrow morning.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: watchinout]
      #83891 - Wed Sep 03 2008 02:38 PM

More models seem to be picking up on a Recurve around the time Ike nears the Bahamas, and so far I think this is the most likely scenario. If hanna moves more North than west, then both would be out to sea before any significant land impacts.

I'm hoping for the model trends to continue to place Ike with a more hard right turn to the north and east away from land.


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #83900 - Wed Sep 03 2008 05:39 PM

Not really happy with 5PM Ike update, but not surprised by it either.

A couple of things to look at for clues as to where Ike will go: 1) what Hanna does since Ike should follow in her footsteps somewhat, 2) how big and/or strong the high pressure ridge to his north come Sunday/Monday , 3) the location of the edge of said high pressure. Forecast is for intensification up to Cat 2, followed by some weaken due to shear (and a slightly SW slide), followed by strengthening up to Cat 3 and then that infamous NW curve. Got a week to go to so alot can change but like I said in the Hanna lounge I don't like Ike already!

Currently Ike is starting to run into some shear from Hanna's outflow but he's got a strong core and just another day of dry air to overcome.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL 26.20N 80.12W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #83901 - Wed Sep 03 2008 06:03 PM

Well, I like Mike (who points out that several models show recurvature scenarios) much better than Ike! I'll be very interested to see how the NHC's 5 p.m. forecast holds up and if the high is strong enough to cause the predicted west-southwest movement Friday and into Saturday.

Edited by saluki (Wed Sep 03 2008 06:11 PM)


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Ben F.
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Palm Beach Gardens, FL 26.84N 80.10W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: saluki]
      #83910 - Wed Sep 03 2008 08:36 PM

Ike is now a Category 3. This is what I have feared, a major hurricane headed to South Florida. This could be worse thna Francis, Jean or Wilma. I don't wish a hurricane on anyone else, but I really hope this dissipates or goes into the Atlantic and breaks up.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: Ben F.]
      #83912 - Wed Sep 03 2008 08:42 PM

Wow!If this forcast track is anywhere near what it is now,come Friday,than SE Florida really needs to prepare for a major cane.Ike is fast becoming a monster.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83913 - Wed Sep 03 2008 08:55 PM

Stronger hurricanes tend to move poleward sooner,I'd be more worried if it stayed weaker. I'm in wait and see mode. Check back this weekend.

The other possibility (less likely, but possible) is that it enhances the ridge and moves more westward. Either way I'm not too concerned yet.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #83914 - Wed Sep 03 2008 09:03 PM

I find the below visual from stormpulse.com very intricate and easy to read.

I realize on the Main Page near the bottom, CFHC provides many links to various other sites, so I especially wanted to bring this particual link to the forefront as it's quite basic for me to read and understand as I'm a simple woman seeking simple answers.

http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 267
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: ltpat228]
      #83917 - Wed Sep 03 2008 09:29 PM

Question: Does anyone know a site that has long term satellite loops with the most recent image being fairly current? I have been looking for quite some time but cannot find a good site that shows multiple days of image loops of wide or even focused views of storms.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Ike Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #83926 - Thu Sep 04 2008 01:50 AM

Where are the mets?We need some input as far as the track of Ike.Please chime in.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: watchinout]
      #83938 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:37 AM

What is interesting in the sudden ramping up of Ike, is that the SST's he is encountering didn't seem strong enough to support a strong cat 4....yet, here we are. It just goes to show you what they admit....that intensity forecasts are not easy, and the current knowledge is limited. I do admire their ability to track the paths however...and with Ike, we have a major player on our hands. I have one question however.....with the intensity of Ike...now a cat 4....doesn't the upper ridge he is carrying along, and his cat 4 intensity...change somewhat the effect the steering currents will have? I would think that major swings in direction would be minimized....sorta plow through....instead of large changes in direction?

My thinking is because when looking back at major hurricanes... Andrew....Katrina....Gilbert.....they all seem to kinda be less effected by weaker steering currents....

Do you think the models are able to adjust the forecasts....when they plug the fact their is a cat 4 on their hands now? I would think their would be some deviation in the track...

That being said...I think it will get on a more westerly track...and not deviate much....

putting, in my mind....so Florida...and specifically....

Miami.....

in the bullseye...imho......lol


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot *DELETED* [Re: SeaMule]
      #83939 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:49 AM

Post deleted by MikeC

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: SeaMule]
      #83940 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:50 AM

I moved mule's post to the Lounge since it was taking a lounge type guess on the main page. Personally I don't think that will happen.

What we do have is a category 4 storm, which won't hold that for 5 days, shear will weaken it a bit, it may go stronger for a bit, it may go down to a category 1. If it maintains the core it will be a problem, but it likely won't.

Ike Turning north depends on a developing trough to its north, and how much riding Ike may help generate as a major. It's likely to be a close call, but I don't think it's worth trying to take a guess an exact landfall point now (or the lack of landfall).

The Latest GFDL is interesting, it takes it south, stays north of Cuba then heads generally toward Florida, but at a curve that still has out to sea a possibility. If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.

But still we'd like to hear, what do you think will happen?



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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: MikeC]
      #83942 - Thu Sep 04 2008 08:01 AM

Quote:



What we do have is a category 4 storm, which won't hold that for 5 days, shear will weaken it a bit, it may go stronger for a bit, it may go down to a category 1. If it maintains the core it will be a problem, but it likely won't.





Down to a cat 1?The NHC says it will go down to a cat 3,then back up to a cat 4.This looks to be a very close call for SE Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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iso
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: MikeC]
      #83945 - Thu Sep 04 2008 08:34 AM

Quote:

If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.





there is a fine line between anxious and concerned. as a 50-yr resident of east central florida, i'm very concerned about the good possibility of a W/NW moving catagory 4 hurricane in the Bahamas on the september 10th peak of the season.


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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: iso]
      #83947 - Thu Sep 04 2008 09:28 AM

well we all know how inaccurate a 5 day projected path can be at times. however, this worries me a bit. fl hasnt had this nasty of a storm since Andrew. and as long as that thing stays south of the bahamas we got a real large problem on our hand. this is something we all need to glue our eyes on. for what its worth, it looks like when it gets to the bahamas, it will make a northernly turn but we know how that goes. its a crapshot.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: iso]
      #83950 - Thu Sep 04 2008 09:47 AM

Quote:

Quote:

If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.





there is a fine line between anxious and concerned. as a 50-yr resident of east central florida, i'm very concerned about the good possibility of a W/NW moving catagory 4 hurricane in the Bahamas on the september 10th peak of the season.




Yep this is a wake up call for some, and the cone is concerning, but I'm not really anxious yet. If it can maintain the core itself through the shear (Which is what the NHC thinks) then it will maintain major. But I think the discussion says it best about intensity forecasts, near term they aren't that good, 3-5 days out they are educated guesses.


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okihabu
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Spring Hill, Florida 28.41N 82.53W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: MikeC]
      #83956 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:27 AM

I agree with Mike on this issue. But a 5 day forecast? Correct me if I am wrong on this, but dont most Cat 4/5's stay on the same general course they are heading? I dont think Ike will be that level, cat 3 maybe. I think a general nnw when it gets to the bahamas. The trough will pull it that way. Now if it does as NHC says and gains back to a cat 4 then S. Florida should watch Ike closely.

--------------------
Chuck Good


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