Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially over. June 1st-Nov 30th, 2014 for the next.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 540 (Sandy) , in Florida: 3102 (8 y 5 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)
Bev
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: MikeC]
      #83957 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:34 AM

My understanding is that a hurricane or tropical storm leaves a path of cooler water temperatures in her wake. Considering Ike is predicted to travel for some time directly in Hanna's wake, is this likely to have an inhibiting effect on strength in addition to the increased shear?

note:
overlapping paths can be easily seen here: http://www.ibiseye.com

Edited: Never mind, the 11am NHC advisory answered my question. Ask and ye shall receive. lol

--------------------
Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.

Edited by Bev (Thu Sep 04 2008 10:47 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: MikeC]
      #83958 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:37 AM

Ike looks very Andrew like to me: small but powerful. Hurricane force winds only extend out 35 miles according the NHC, this is downright tiny in general storm terms. These little storms tend to track more linear due to their compact shape and high spin rates, just a top spinning stays put till is slows and begins to wobble like crazy (like Fay & Hanna did)

Ike over came a slot of dry air very quickly by keeping his core isolated and just plowing straight forward. Ahead of him is the same shear that is ripping Hanna apart, but she never had any core for defense. Still Ike will lose some punch, but considering he was forecast to be only a Cat 2 and made it to Cat 4 this weakening will be as dramatic (down to Cat 2 maybe). The effects of the Hanna's outflow (no matter how sloppy) is already effected Ike's west side and pushing him NW as predicted so the current track is verifying nicely.

Thus the NHC's future track looks reasonable to me, the longer Ike stays below 25N the more worried I get here in South FL since a late NW turns puts us in the strike zone of a major 'cane. Now Hanna keeps trending east so when Ike turns he too should be on the east side of the cone as clearly the models don't have a handle on pressure to the north. I would image the NHC will be flooding the area NW of Hanna/Ike with recon missions so data should improve. Down the road there is a front coming that could also kick-the-baby (South Park reference) more east. Like I said before keep an eye on Hanna's track and wait for that NW turn on Monday, that will be when the real nail biting in South FL will start. Also for what is worth historical data supports Ike missing S FL (Isabel 2003 for example).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: JMII]
      #83960 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:46 AM

Great discussion. Went back and looked at the interaction between the storms or more so Hanna's wetting up the atmosphere. As said by the NHC she is big.. huge in size though not in strength. Much like an early wave by Africa moistens up the environment so is Hanna. Will that weaken the high... not sure how that works. High is strongly in place.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html

Hanna is really pulling it together, again her convective mass if not her wind speed.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

The story will have new chapters soon, soon...

Being played out on real time here before our eyes!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: okihabu]
      #83961 - Thu Sep 04 2008 10:52 AM

the 11am update hasnt changed too much with the projected path. it put the soutern most part of florida more in the cone thats about it. simple as this we all just got to watch it for a couple more days. its south movement once it gets to the bahamas, worries me a bit but what can we do.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83962 - Thu Sep 04 2008 11:24 AM

A wise man worries when it is necessary. When he does make that forecasted dip I think a lot of people in South Florida are going to hold their breaths collectively.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Looks stronger than it is and yes I know it's strong.

Hanna looks more subtropical than anything else and though her moisture is all over the place.

The trough is beginning to push away the feature that's been carving away at Hanna (look how it just dipped down and flattened the top or the moisture) and then what? Not a great scenario and need to get better at the timing issue. Ike is relentlessly moving steady west north west. Normally his lat would give me some breathing space but with the projected dip WSW... we have to wait and see.

Recon goes in tomorrow I believe.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: LoisCane]
      #83966 - Thu Sep 04 2008 11:52 AM

well according to the recent track, the point where they have it on 8am on monday will be the tell all, atleast as of now. it looks at that point it will progessivly make the north turn. but just out of curiousity, through the storms i have witnessed, dont the stronger, quicker ones have the harder time making that northern turn? storms like fay and hanna dont have that issue it stalls, gets strong, gets weak, goes stationary and picks a direction. but this son of a gun is moving quickly and its strong. what does everyone think?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
IKE [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83969 - Thu Sep 04 2008 12:45 PM

Three of the most reliable models(GFDL,NGFDL &NOGAPS) have Ike coming into S. Florida via the north east coast of Cuba.Let's hope they are wrong and the other models don't follow suit.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83972 - Thu Sep 04 2008 01:17 PM

Generally, larger tropical cyclones are less likely to be affected by more transient influences on steering, especially if they are deep systems and well developed. On the other hand, it is typically more common to see smaller tropical cyclones jog, dip, or simply be steered by similar blocking ridges or even weak troughs. Actually, I have not found any greater significance to a hurricane being very strong or not, with regards to how it is steered by weaker influences. Simply that smaller storms in general seems to more easily alter course. Perhaps also stands to reason, how in some cases if a hurricane is a very deep system, but quite large, that it is itself impacting the environment ( i.e. warming the upper layers by means of extensive outflow ). Though powerful, I do not believe that a small hurricane would tend to alter the larger overall environment.

Well, looking at the overnight runs of GFS into this morning, I cannot help but believe that Ike will in fact gain a little more latitude than NHC has presently forecasted. This could of course be a good thing - if enough poleward motion is attained in the short term. What I mean by this is such: The building 594 high pressure ridge is actually forecast to form close to the point where Ike is to be today, into tommorrow. I have a hard time seeing how the heights are not rising first to the hurricanes north and northeast, however the GFS models seems to suddenly have such high mid level heights to the storms NW in the near term. At minimum, I believe that Ike will gain more latitude than NHC believes, and will cross north of 25N latitude. If in fact the height rises are distincly more to the NE of Ike, along with the existing weakness off the U.S. seaboard, than the possibility might really exist for Ike to perhaps slow down, but continue more NW'ward that forecast. If such occured for 36hr.'s or more, than I can see an issue of where Ike could be caught in a COL and have minimal steering for a while. I am less sure of the ultimate result then, if left with the prospect of Ike possibly affecting the Carolinas or mid Atlantic states, or eventually just swinging up ahead of some possible eventual weakness.

On the other hand, and assume greater short term accuracy by NHC, and perhaps Ike remains south of 25N. Then, I do not see a real WSW motion, because of the close proximity of Ike to the center of this strong mid level high, but more of a general westward motion. Worse yet, timing would now be possibly changed because again, Ike might not be situated far enough to the south of the center of this ridge, but more "indented" into it. I would imagine a slower motion than we've seen - and perhaps an agonizingly slow westward crawl at about 8-10mph. Now, without such a southward bend to its course, it on one hand would be seemingly unlikely for a hurricane this far east at such a latitude to be able to simply continue to travel westward for too long, yet I do not see nearly enough of a reason for significant poleward motion throughout, because I do not see any obvious troughing to break down the W. Atlantic ridge. What appears to me to occur, is that the 594 W. Atlantic high maintains its integrity, but simply slides more eastward. One would then assume that Ike would follow the coutour of the more eastward strong high, thus creating a more NW motion. I however only see where a small temporary WNW motion would ensue, more or less just as Ike rounds the larger W. Atlantic high, until the next primary steering influence takes over. As far as I can see, that would be another, though weaker high centered over the Gulf Of Mexico and extending over eastward from there. If given any significant dip in the westerlies or short wave off the U.S. east coast, one could easily make the argument that this will degrade this weak ridge - and such would likely happen. Looking at the available 6Z GFS data ( and previous run as well ), I see what appears a a large dip of the westerlies, almost like a weak but broad trough, entirely over the central CONUS, with the 500mb 582mb line not coming much south of Kansas. This trough does not appear to be digging, nor dropping a short wave down the U.S. east coast. Therefore, by my interpretation, there would seem to be significant ridging from the W. Atlantic well west into the Gulf of Mexico ( at least around 25N latitude ). Steering could be weak and perhaps even maintain only a slow 5kt. forwad motion, but I cannot see how Ike would not be forced more or less West to WNW at most, at the very end of the forecast time frame. This all said, I would tend to think an area from w. Palm Beach, Florida, north to Fort Pierce, Florida - perhaps to be of greatest risk of a possible Cat. 3/4 ( ASSUMING the many possible changes in long range steering which certainly is realisitic to realize given projections based on data so far out in time ).

As a disclaimer, please keep in mind, that the 12Z GFS ( as well as a myriad of additional model data ) will update shortly, and this hypothesis could be just as easily be "thrown out the window" in a matter of hours. Simply my take on circumstances "of the moment".


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheElNino1
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Orlando
12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #83975 - Thu Sep 04 2008 03:31 PM

I was surprised by the latest European 12Z forecast for Ike. Instead of side swiping Florida it now takes the storm into Louisiana! Let see what the future model runs look like to see if a trend is developing.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...s!2008090412!!/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: TheElNino1]
      #83978 - Thu Sep 04 2008 03:51 PM

A lot of the model runs this afternoon shifted west, which is still concerning. still a lot could happen between today and next week.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: MikeC]
      #83983 - Thu Sep 04 2008 04:16 PM

as far as the models being run, shifting west, west meaning the track will move further west then north then northeast like GFDL's current track? im confused on this.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: Sinajana, Guam 13.46N 144.74E
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83986 - Thu Sep 04 2008 04:32 PM

Does anyone know why they have taken the tropical forecast points off the overlay at SSD?

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1208
Loc: South Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83989 - Thu Sep 04 2008 04:57 PM

That's a very sharp right turn. David like I suppose more than Floyd.

Have to see what it shows at 11pm but the new models are making people nervous and with good reason.

Wish I was confused.... not liking what I am seeing but there is plenty of time for things to change so keep watching.

Rarely do you get to see a storm this beautiful out in the ocean spin, hope he spins down before land.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
eye wall EXPANDING [Re: craigm]
      #83990 - Thu Sep 04 2008 04:58 PM

Well, we've been thinking this might be a little buzz-saw like Andrew. However, the eyewall in the last few hours has really gotten much larger...probably 10-12 miles....and in addition...it's a perfect circle. I think Ike is merely getting larger...and it's expanding eyewall might be the reason for a somewhat slower wind speed.

I don't like the looks of this at all......Look for additional strengthening....a cat 5 is down the road...imho


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: craigm]
      #83991 - Thu Sep 04 2008 05:10 PM

the 5pm update of ike offers no assurance to south florida residents. the computer models are tight and its moved west, as projected by users on here. all i can say is i had a bad hunch. we should start to feel effects sunday night as the local weathermen said.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83993 - Thu Sep 04 2008 05:35 PM

Eric Blake wrote a pretty good discussion in the 5PM update, noticing the shift westward too, some even going as far south as into Cuba. This is all possible still. I don't envy this forecast, though, it's really difficult to start throwing the cone of a major hurricane toward land.

Eric was one of the first people to get Hurricane advisories up on the internet (ATWC.org) -- or at least an organized way-- so I'm probably a little biased in his favor. He's also a very good forecaster, and one of the younger ones there.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: MikeC]
      #83995 - Thu Sep 04 2008 05:40 PM

Miami across Florida into the Gulf or south to Cuba and into the Gulf; both bad scenerios but looking more probable. Since the models are trending more that way we'll have to see.

What are the chances of Ike getting bigger? Right now the hurricane winds only go out 45 miles?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #83997 - Thu Sep 04 2008 06:07 PM

Quote:

we should start to feel effects sunday night as the local weathermen said.




When the storm is forecast to be SE of the Bahamas? I don't think so... other then ocean swells and rip currents Ike's effects on South FL will not arrive until late Mon/early Tues based on the current forecast. Check any of various wind field products to confirm this. Given Ike's small nature it might be well into Tues before we feel TS level winds. Once again this is based on the current forecast, storm size & intensity which we all know could change.

The grouping of the models towards S FL is not good, however I noticed in addition to shifting west a few shifted to the south putting Ike down into Cuba. The front moving thru the central US doesn't look like its digging very deep so I'm not buying the southerly track or a recurve out to sea solutions just yet. The good news is that Hanna left some cooler water behind that Ike must go thru, thus some weaken before landfall should occur.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bev
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
Historical note about Ike [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #83998 - Thu Sep 04 2008 06:17 PM

I just looked at all historical tracks from 1920 to the present for all Cat 4&5 hurricanes in the Atlantic that eventually made on the southeast US coast (not necessarily at those strengths).

The good news is that according to the historical data at the ibis site, no Cat 4/5 hurricane has ever been as far north as Ike is at this point and managed to make landfall in Fla, GA, SC, or NC. The bad news is that hurricanes will continue to make history, so there's always a first.

Isabel came very close to being as far north as Ike. And both Dora and Andrew, were both as far north as Ike, where he is predicted to be tomorrow. They both swung up from the south toward the north and continued further north while Ike is predicted to be pushed well south of their tracks. But Ike will be the farthest north at this longitude if he makes landfall. Interesting!

--------------------
Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
iso
Unregistered




Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: JMII]
      #84001 - Thu Sep 04 2008 07:01 PM

Quote:

The good news is that Hanna left some cooler water behind that Ike must go thru, thus some weaken before landfall should occur.




over 2F drop in a little over 12 hours on the east Bahamas buoy that Hannah passed by within 125 miles:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 120749

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center