MikeC
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5:00AM EDT Update
Recon suggest that Hanna has performed a possible cyclonic loop and now a possible slow north turn. The Forecast Track remains about the same for now.
Tropical Storm Ike will likely be a forecasting problem. The 1-2 day track looks good, after that there is much uncertainty.
Tropical Storm Josephine is maintaining for now. It is a bit stronger from the previous update/discussion.
3:56PM EDT Update
Hanna is still drifting around, recon recently found a pressure of 985 and near hurricane windspeed of 70MPH, so despite shear, Hanna is holding together well. Right now Hanna is drifting slightly, toward the southeast.
Models are not predicting a north or northwest motion until tomorrow afternoon.
Tropical Storm warnings are up for Haiti since it is gotten so close. The entire Southeast, and Florida needs to be closely watching Hanna, as it is forecast to come very close to the Florida East coast, any deviation westward would bring Hanna in as a Hurricane to Florida Thursday night or early Friday.
1:30PM Update
Tropical Storm Josephine forms from TD#10. Hanna's forecast track has moved west a bit, but still has landfall in the Carolinas, the current forecast track would now give some effects of Hanna to Central Florida overnight Thursday into Friday (Less if all the convection remains sheared to the south and east like it is now). And most of Florida is in the Cone.
Repeating the National Hurricane Center, it should be stressed that the expected angle of approach and track uncertainty make it impossible to narrow down the potential impact area of Hanna. Interest in the northwestern Bahamas, and along the entire southeastern United States coast should closely monitor the progress of Hanna.
Hurricane Warnings are up for the southern half of the Bahamas, but no watches currently exist for the US.
Ike still continues to move generally westward, with 60MPH winds.
Original Update
Extremely busy in the tropics this morning, Gustav has made landfall and is now inland bringing flooding rains. No reports of wide scale damage as of yet, but some reports may begin to filter in today. Many areas are out of power.
Now Weakened Tropical Storm Hanna is drifting west, the largest threat is toward the Carolinas, but parts of Florida and Georgia are still well within the cone. Hanna is drifting around right now, but is eventually expected to start generally moving North Northwest and pick up forward speed. Most likely Florida will encounter fringe effects from the system and larger than normal tides along the east coast, this could be more or less depending on how close Hanna gets to Florida. It remains worth watching. Those in North and South Carolina need to watch this the closest, however.
Hanna will likely weaken more today, as it is getting heavily sheared (as many Southward moving storms tend to do). Models predicted this, if Hanna Survives it has a chance to restrengthen later.
Tropical Storm Ike continues to move relatively quickly to the east, and we may have to deal with it next week. Those is the Bahamas will want to watch this weekend for it, and longer range models want to take it into north Cuba or through the Florida straits, but we have a while to watch it.
Tropical Depression Ten...now Tropical Storm Josephine formed this morning as well off the coast of Africa, it most likely will go out to sea, but some models are moving it more back westward. This will be a long track system, so plenty of time to watch it as well. It could form into Josephine as early as today.
Google Plot of Hanna, Ike, and TD#10 ( Add Gustav )
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Lousiana Evac Maps
Video/Audio Links/Webcams
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
The Storm Report Live Video Stream from Houma, LA
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Lake Ponchartrain Causeway
Metarie Webcam
Louisana Instacams
GregLeder Backyard webcam with battery backup
Maroonspoon multiple live coverage of Gustav New Orleans: WGNO, WWL, WDSU, WVUE (Mute individual ones to focus)
New Orleans Police Scanner (Req. Winamp)
Lousiana EM Radio Chatter
Multiple Webcams in Area from HurricaneCity
Louisiana DOT Traffic Cameras
Television/Radio
KATC In Lafayette, LA
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile
Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!
Key West Long Range Radar with hint of Gustav
Storm Surge Risks with Gustav along Louisiana
Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
Edited by Storm Cooper (Wed Sep 03 2008 09:43 AM)
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metwannabe
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The combinaition of northerly shear, outflow from Gustav, and the possibly cooler SST due to upwelling of cooler waters are taking their toll on Hanna. Until the shear eases and she begins to move from the cooler waters Hanna could weaken more, although does not forecast this, it is possible.
Of course too early to let gaurd down as Hanna has looked like this before and just when you think she has weakened convection fires near the center....time will tell and I think next 24 hours will be get better handle on her intensity and track.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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John C
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Due to the forward motion of Ike and it's position forecast for Friday, and the slow moving Hanna position on Friday. What are the chances Ike will push Hanna more west during the week?
Or I guess it could also push it faster north as it approaches?
Also noted in Hanna forecast lounge.
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Colleen A.
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It appears that Hanna may be interacting with the northeastern coast of Haiti...which may be why she has weakened a tad..she's hard to follow because she's not moving much.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MikeC
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Quote:
It appears that Hanna may be interacting with the northeastern coast of Haiti...which may be why she has weakened a tad..she's hard to follow because she's not moving much.
Hanna is still drifting pretty much westward, that shear is pushing a lot of convection south, however. It's going to be a "rough" day for Hanna. I'm still leaning toward it moving more northward than westward later, however. The latest run gets awfully close to East Florida, however and eventually into the Florida/Georgia border. With the shearing going on, If it does that, it probably just means more rain for Florida. Just need to watch it.
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craigm
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Hanna's low level center is exposed right now and she is directly under where the official track has her starting her NW motion. It will be interesting to watch in the next few hours to see if the official track verifies. Look at the exhaust plume coming out of the center and shearing to the SE --fascinating--
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Raymond
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@Colleen
No, the center of Hanna is just to the north of Great Inagua, It´s totally exposed and all convection only in the SE quadrant.. So it seems, that it´s interacting with Hispaniola, but it isn´t (much).
edit: Just look at Josephine (ex TD10  ). An eye-like feature has formed and it has all the features, that a (stronger) TS should have (banding; dense, strong convection and a forming eye)
Edited by Raymond (Tue Sep 02 2008 01:34 PM)
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Random Chaos
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I second this view (of TD #10). It's not in visible on GOES, so no floater yet. However, we did have an IR pass recently from another satellite.
Definitely looking like a TS or weak hurricane. I would be surprised if we don't see an upgrade at 11am. It's so far out at sea that they won't do a special alert upgrade; they only do those when storms are near land.
About 2 hours ago, a ship reported 1009mb pressure about 13nms from the TD 10.
Ref: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at5
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Hanna is looking anemic, though she's still trying to fire convection. A lot of shear affecting her.
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Ike is looking very disorganized still, but he's got a lot of time to organize before land.
Edit - added ship data
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 02 2008 01:52 PM)
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weathernet
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No doubt, with the climactic degree of tropical cyclone development occuring, there likely is going to be even greater motion and steering uncertaintly created by other evolving tropical cyclones. At the risk of forum policy regarding "chat", I will address a good question regarding Ike's motion possibly impacting Hanna's. It is correct that an eastward approaching tropical cyclone ( depending on intensity and size ), would tend to act as a "rudder" and steer the more westward tropical cyclone in a more westward direction. This is due to the added cyclonic mid level flow accompanying it, however I do not believe such will be be the case with Ike and Hanna, and in this case the very strong progged height rises that are forecasted to steer Ike towards the west, are likely to be the eventual mechanism to sooner steer Hanna before Ike's influence would likely make it to Hanna's longitude. I'll share my own further thoughts however in the Forecast Lounge, if anyone would like to grab a cigar or glass of wine and join me there.
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LoisCane
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I can't think when we have had a year where you can put all the cones together and so clearly see the Bermuda High
outlined so well.
Hanna could affect Ike a bit but considering forecast intensity for Ike to be stronger I would think it might affect 10 unless 10 pulls NW too soon.
A complex puzzle of tropical entities on the board now and think we will be studying this year in retrospect for years
to come.
Lounge sounds like a good place for lunch.
I still think Hanna is the messiest to forecast until she pulls it together more.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Patrick99
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Hanna looks really bad right now; Gustav's outflow appears to be doing a number on her.
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PFSThunder
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The NAVY site now has TD 10 as 10 NONAME. We have a TS now
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Go Boilermakers
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craigm
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Not sure how Hanna is going to survive this onslaught. This environment looks to be about as unfavorable for development as it gets:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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ftlaudbob
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000
WTNT45 KNHC 021450
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S
ORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVEN A
DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS
ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD IN THE INFRARED...BUT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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scottsvb
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I was watching Joe Bastardi last night on FoxNews. I really dont know why they have him on there due to all his Wrong forecasts. I love Joe, so dont get me wrong, but he takes a system, makes a guess at where it may go, then hypecasts and guesscasts his forecast into meteorolgical terms that just dont make real sense. Like Fay, first he said Caronlinas, then Panhandle, then after crossing the state, back to Carolinas, then NE gulf towards Mobile as a hurricane. Then Gustav, Carolinas,Florida, then Central La-MX, then back to LA within 36hrs of obvious landfall. Hanna, Carolinas (like every storm he starts with almost) and says Hanna will be a Cat 4 to Bill O'rielly of Fox News, and stronger than Gustav and pressure under 950mb.
Again I love watching Joe, cause hes good entertainment, but I dont see how he can say that on national tv about a Cat 4 coming to the Carolinas (ForSure he says). I wouldnt of said that, but I would of said it could be from Florida-Caronlinas and we wont know forsure until it starts moving and we get better data in, could be a Cat 1-Cat3 but a 4 with under 950mb? Not impossible, but I would of held off on that. LOL.
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Lee-Delray
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I agree the water vapor loop makes it look like Hanna's getting beat up badly. I wouldn't count her out yet, she's in warm water . It also looks like Ike will get caught up with Hanna soon if she doesn't move. If nothing else, it looks like Ike will get some shear from Hanna?
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Steve H1
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12Z has her just about on the east central Fl coast at 66 hours. Hana's convection is ramping up once again.
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LoisCane
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This has to be saved. The whole year's discussions should be saved.
"DECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE. THE CONVECTIVE TOPS"
Funny, I just clicked on visible and thought ...oh my goodness.. unreal. But, it just looks like a .
Been the year of deceptive eye like features and sw movement.
Wouldn't write off Hanna, wouldn't call her a possible Cat 4 but after watching the evolution of Jeanne down in the same area looking like she was gasping her final breath... and then she bounced back I would not write off Hanna.
Especially as she has dealt with negative conditions almost her entire time on the maps from way before Invest status even.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Jeanne_2004_track.png
So... hang on, relax and just watch all the pretty storms spin today and get ready tomorrow once we know for sure what will be track wise and intensity.
and I agree..she just had a blow up of convection very visible on visible within the last 30 minutes that was impressive.. see if it continues
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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native
Weather Guru
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What I find interesting with Hanna is this:
The 's 5 day track (as of 11am) is the most eastern outlier.
Model outputs from WU website
I'm not saying anything one way or the other. I know these have and will continue to move until Hanna can get her act together a bit better. I just thought it was interesting.
My guess however is that isn't going to tweek their track very much for now until they are more certain that the left (south) movement of the models is more of an actual trend.
This all ofcourse is dependent upon if she (Hanna) can even hold herself together until Gustav's outflow pulls up and away and what happens with that nice mass of dry air to her north.
As an aside, I know many times (especially with Gustav after he came off the coast of Cuba) there was lots of chatter on here about "I think it's east of the forecast path" "Is it me or does it seem to be wobbling more north" etc., etc.
But, alas, they (NHC) got it right yet again. Just goes to reitterate to us all not to focus on the points but the entire cone instead.
I personally think has done a bang up job and have absolute confidence in them.
Edited by native (Tue Sep 02 2008 04:54 PM)
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Raymond
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Thats a huge jump to the southeast to the area of the strongest convection!!! 
Central pressure down to 985 hPA and max. surface winds up to 71 kt (may be a bit rain inflated, but the midsixties should be for sure).
Good to have recon! 
I suppose, that perhaps the mid/upper-level circulation has been transported with the strongest convection and the new low level center has reformed beneath it. What we had seen on satpics earlier was the old low level center.
That`ll have consequences for the future track!
Edited by Raymond (Tue Sep 02 2008 06:26 PM)
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