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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: TPuppy]
      #84062 - Fri Sep 05 2008 04:00 AM

Quote:

Another rookie question, can the Doppler radars be ramped up in situations like Hanna to learn more about her make up, she is far off our coast ( further than current radar readings of < 120 km) . I think I remember a time about a month ago when Melborne was under repair and that Tampa seemed to take over a good chunk of CF. Maybe looking at Doppler radar is only entertaining for us lurkers, I read the Doppler tutorial, but still didn’t understand if the readings help the NHC or not. Is it all about the recon, if so why? I do remember hearing about the crappie Cuban radar, so it must mean something. And the (‘drops downs’ do what the radar can’t. You seem pretty excited about airplanes going out to see big bad Ike, tell me why that is so important. Can we learn if the radar ramps up? Did we learn? Is that why NHC is doing better in path, but wants nothing to do with strength. i.e. Ike T.S. puff H3..h4.




As others have mentioned, Doppler radars are limited in range by the curvature of the Earth. They are also limited in effectiveness by time considerations (e.g. for emitted pulses to be returned to the radar before the next scan takes places), the base elevation angle (0.5 degrees, which doesn't sound like a lot but leads to overshooting a lot of stuff over 100 miles away from the radar), and their power. Tampa's radar (and also Melbourne's) can cover most of Central Florida because of the narrowness of the peninsula and thus relative proximity of the radars.

Radar analyses help the NHC from the standpoint of gauging storm structure -- eye, eyewall, etc. -- and diagnosing its winds using Doppler velocity data. While they are not surface winds, those data can be converted to approximate surface winds and used to better diagnose the storm's current intensity. Aircraft recon also have radars from time to time, though those are mostly used in research modes rather than real-time forecasting operations.

Recon flights are so important because they have tools that allow us to measure surface winds (the SFMR tool), gain an understanding of the storm's vertical structure (dropsondes), and gauge its intensity in a way that we cannot do with any other tool such as radar or satellite.

Ultimately, the NHC intensity forecasts have not improved much in skill over the years because we can't accurately represent what is going on within the storm at all times. We just don't have the full knowledge that we need, nor do we have the computational power to take what knowledge we have and make an accurate forecast. We know conditions that are favorable and those that are unfavorable, but we can't always judge how those will evolve in 12 hr, yet alone 120 hr. Intensity change is such a fine-scale, highly non-linear process that it makes its predictability quite the chore. Track forecasts, however, are largely dependent upon larger-scale features, features that are well understood, analyzed, and predicted and have become increasingly so over the years. Thus, we see large improvements in track without large improvements in intensity even considering that track forecasts are dependent upon intensity!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Clark]
      #84063 - Fri Sep 05 2008 05:42 AM

Interesting! The strong convective blobs to the west of the center of Hanna pull her more westward than expected. Die last two center fixes show this. If this continues, than even Georgia should be threatened by a direct landfall. It`ll be threatened anyway by the large windfield of Hanna.
And the pressure begins to drop slightly. It´s now 982 hpa. Because recon also found a flight level wind of 72 kt, we could see a slightly intensifying Hanna, which is quite close to hurricane strength!


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shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Raymond]
      #84066 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:40 AM

Raymond, I am sure glad that you mentioned the west movement. I am in Jacksonville, Fl and have been watching it since 4 this morning thinking the same exact thing. I thought it was just the old eyes playing tricks on me. To me, it's looking like it might be right around the Georgia/Florida line.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84067 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:58 AM

No, sorry, that´s a wrong impression. You may be fooled a bit by the strong convection, which is a bit to the west of the center. The main focus for landfall is still South Carolina, but if we would see the strong convection continue to the west of the center with center reformations under it or close by, then it could be possibly drawn more westward than expected to Georgia. I think, given the meteorological conditions, there is no landfall possible in northern florida ore close by, but the huge tropical stormfield and may be the stronger convection on the westside can have it effects on Florida.

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Jane
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84068 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:59 AM

It's been raining and windy here in Broward County since about 2 a.m. Weather reports last evening said there would be a "chance" of rain today. Hanna obviously moved a bit west; now the rain probability is up to 80 percent.

--------------------
Jane
Fort Lauderdale, Florida

https://janeshistorynook.blogspot.com/


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shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Jane]
      #84069 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:06 AM

According to the weather channel we are now under a tropical storm warning. I haven't seen any place else saying Florida is under any warnings. Thanks for clearing up the center position for me. I was thinking the center was somewhere under the big blob.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84070 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:25 AM

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

...HANNA ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWARD IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SMITH POINT. A TROPICAL WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND NORTHWARD INTO CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SMITH POINT.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO SANDY HOOK
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT...THE
TIDAL POTOMAC...WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 150
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: danielw]
      #84071 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:29 AM

Here, in New Smyrna Beach, we are definitely feeling Hanna this morning with some heavy rain bands and squalls (thank God Hanna is not a hurricane!). We better not get a wet Ike on the heels of this one or flooding will be a major problem.

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #84074 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:12 AM

Impressive convectiv blob to the west of the center and presure down to 980 hpa! Is Hanna over a warm eddy of the gulf stream?

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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Raymond]
      #84075 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:23 AM

so i left the New Orleans EOC and came home because of Hanna and Ike. Here on the Treasure Coast, Hanna is looking like a "nasty day event". At 0730, we're getting some rain and some good 20mph, maybe a 30mph wind. No activations or protective measures are being taken.

Ike....however.....may be another story.....

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Sheeper]
      #84076 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:32 AM

Quote:

Here on the Treasure Coast, Hanna is looking like a "nasty day event". At 0730, we're getting some rain and some good 20mph, maybe a 30mph wind. No activations or protective measures are being taken.
Ike....however.....may be another story.....




One town below you in Fort Pierce I'm getting at least 30mph rainy winds - and some squalls up to 40.

At daybreak this morning I began hearing staple guns, drills and hammers securing hurricane panels.

This is so eerie....just like when I lived on the beach when Frances and Jeanne went directly over my home.

South Florida: we're all in this together, guys.
You are not alone.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: ltpat228]
      #84082 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:58 AM

Looks like Hanna's center may be tracking more toward the center of the convection (based on Recon), those in the forecast path for Hanna, I hope you have prepared for a cat 1/2 hurricane tonight.

I did open up a spot to report conditions in your area here


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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: MikeC]
      #84084 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:10 AM

The circulation seen on radar just in the mid levels or is Hanna really trying to take off? Not trying to over state anything but I would be really surprised if this is not a hurricane by 11:00 am or at least by 5:00 this afternoon if this trend continues. One thing that worries me (since I do live about 150 miles from the coast line) is that if she strengthens and at the rate she is moving, there could be significant winds well inland and far up the coast line, do not think we can relax with Hanna yet.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: MikeC]
      #84085 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:12 AM

Mike, can you please clarify what you mean by tracking towards the center of convection??? Does that mean that is tracking further west than predicted?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84086 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:16 AM

Quote:

Mike, can you please clarify what you mean by tracking towards the center of convection??? Does that mean that is tracking further west than predicted?




This is soley based on recon fixes, it just appears the center has moved more toward the deep convection.

The last two Vortex Messages from recon were more west than north, I don't think it's moving more west, just reforming more west. What it does to the eventual track is uncertain. But it would suggest places like Myrtle Beach or Charleston are more under the gun for the center, on top of this pressure dropped about 5 millibars with the last recon fix.

Melbourne Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


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Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: MikeC]
      #84088 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:32 AM

Sorry for the short post, but I see they have put up more types of satellite imagery at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml -
For the floaters they have:
Visible Image - Loop
IR AVN Image - Loop
IR Shortwave Image - Loop
IR Dvorak* Image - Loop
IR Unenhanced Image - Loop
IR JSL Image - Loop
IR RGB Image - Loop
IR Funktop Image - Loop
IR Rainbow Image - Loop
Water Vapor Image - Loop

--------------------
--
Chris Bryant
Arden, North Carolina


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shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: MikeC]
      #84089 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:36 AM

Thank you, Mike. What ever happened to the theory that the east side of the storm is the worst side?? Is Hanna defying the laws of nature?

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84093 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:44 AM

Hanna is a strange storm.

Question: I know MBs are not the only condition for a Cat classification, but below 980, which she currently is, indicates Cat 2...are we looking at this possibility.? crow now being served to yours truly, who dissed H. big time yesterday.

http://www.pdc.org/iweb/hurricane.jsp?subg=1

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: Ed in Va]
      #84096 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:47 AM

Pressure is relative to the surrounding environment. Hence why when Wilma got all the way to 882 MBs, her wind speed wasn't nearing 200 mph because the surrounding environment of pressure was much lower than normal.

Now I am not sure how Hannah's environment is relative to surrounding pressures but her lack of a tight core and very large windfield make her lower pressure not as conducive to increasing windspeed.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Hanna Approaches Carolinas, Ike Remains Major [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #84098 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:57 AM

Convection begins to sit more on top of the center of Hanna and the shear relaxes more and more and could be quite low until landfall acording to the analysation of CIMSS. So the most positive factor in the moment: she won´t have much time anymore till landfall. But it looks like as we`ll see a hurricane making landfall.

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