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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: danielw]
      #84339 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:21 PM

Quote:

NE Eyewall Dropsonde
55850 11654 5000ft level 115deg at 154kts
66827 12158 just below 5000ft 120deg at 158kt, 182mph




WOAH... what does that translate to at the surface? 182 mph is.... not pleasant to look at in a recon report, even if it is just below 5,000ft.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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KJJAXFL
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest [Re: kromdog]
      #84340 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:23 PM

I have a house in marathon and trying to look for models on storm surge potential. Does anyone know and links or sites I can use?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Drops [Re: Hugh]
      #84341 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:31 PM

That typically is just above the level of highest winds in a Mature storm.
I would say that would be over 155mph at the surface... BUT this was the NE Eyewall drop.
Fujita F3 or F4 damage level probably.

Flight level wind are reduced at 90% to the surface. Or a rough estimate is to take the flight level wind speed in knots and simply change the knots to mph.
100knots=115 mph x 90%= 103.5mph
140knots =161mph x 90% = 145mph

So the simple rule is not that far off.
158kts = 182mph x 90% = 164 mph

6 mph above the simple rule. But at 160mph it won't make a great deal of difference.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Drops [Re: danielw]
      #84342 - Sat Sep 06 2008 04:35 PM

so, if I'm understanding you correctly, the hurricane that the NHC last reported was a minimal Cat 3, is now a Cat 5? (164mph winds at the surface in the NE eyewall would seem to be sufficient for an upgrade to Cat 5, wouldn't it?)

5pm is now out... it's back up to 135 officially...


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Sat Sep 06 2008 04:45 PM)


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pcbjr
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Re: Drops [Re: Hugh]
      #84346 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:02 PM

So, it seems Naples to the Big Bend is getting more and more out of the picture; any reason to suspect the NHC might be too far west at 5:00 PM?

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Drops [Re: pcbjr]
      #84347 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:05 PM

Quote:

So, it seems Naples to the Big Bend is getting more and more out of the picture; any reason to suspect the NHC might be too far west at 5:00 PM?




The current 5-day cone stretches from just south of Miami, through the Gulf Coast, all the way over to west of New Orleans. Anyone along Florida's Gulf Coast is still well in the picture.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Mag
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Loc: Merritt Island, Fl 28.33N 80.66W
Re: Drops [Re: pcbjr]
      #84348 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:18 PM

Hey Everyone, Myself , just like everyone else that lives on the east coast ... <snip by moderator redingtonbeachguy>

edit by mod -- let's try to stay focused please.



Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sat Sep 06 2008 07:12 PM)


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JulieTampa
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 10
Loc: Lithia, FL
Re: Drops [Re: Hugh]
      #84349 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:27 PM

When is the European model going to come out with its next run? It seemed to know about the more southerly, GOM path before the other models, and I remember some people saying it has a good record this season. And where can weI get access to that model run?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
OOPS [Re: JulieTampa]
      #84350 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:31 PM

URNT12 KNHC 062124
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 06/21:05:40Z
B. 21 deg 31 min N
069 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2658 m
D. 111 kt
E. 320 deg 016 nm
F. 054 deg 112 kt
G. 320 deg 020 nm
H. 949 mb
I. 12 C/ 3055 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 5 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNE
M. C28
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0409A IKE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 19:12:30 Z
EYEWALL NEARLY CLOSED


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: OOPS [Re: danielw]
      #84351 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:34 PM

The latest AVN image shows the eye beginning to reappear, although cloud tops appear to have cool significantly over the last few hours.
Ike is definately sending out mixed signals this afternoon.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Texas Cane Tracker
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 21
Loc: Tomball, TX
Re: Drops [Re: JulieTampa]
      #84352 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:40 PM


Yes, the euro has been predicting a track much further to the west and south than the other models for some time now. You can access this site by using the web address below.


http://www.ecmwf.int/


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Drops [Re: Texas Cane Tracker]
      #84353 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:46 PM

The latest ECMWF (Euro) solution would be exceptionally unusual (paralleling the Gulf Coast to the SW and then the S all the way from LA into Mexico), but it is one of the better performing models. While the specific solution may be unlikely, it suggests that steering could become erratic if Ike does not get completely captured by the next trough. That is still way in the future, though.

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smorse22
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl 27.03N 82.19W
Re: Drops [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84354 - Sat Sep 06 2008 05:54 PM

Quote:

The latest ECMWF (Euro) solution would be exceptionally unusual (paralleling the Gulf Coast to the SW and then the S all the way from LA into Mexico), but it is one of the better performing models. While the specific solution may be unlikely, it suggests that steering could become erratic if Ike does not get completely captured by the next trough. That is still way in the future, though.





Isn't there trough coming down from the gulf that is supposed to interact with Ike?

Also, the weather channel continues to say that they believe that there will be a right hand turn once in the gulf. Any comments?


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WPB Ken
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: WPB FL 26.69N 80.06W
Re: Drops [Re: Mag]
      #84356 - Sat Sep 06 2008 06:30 PM

Quote:

snips
I had a crazy idea.

Here is the theory. The news media knew that hurricane ike was going to go south of florida long before they reported it because as long as they keep reporting that a major hurricane is going to hit florida then people will keep tuning in to their stations and giving them better ratings.
snips
so what does everybody think about that??

I dont know, call me crazy, but in a way, it kinda makes sense.




I'll have to call you crazy. I've been in the ink-slinging business since the middle 60s and we're not that smart. TV and the web sites love storms because they DO drive eyeballs, but the media doesn't have a better crystal ball than NHC.

I know.

I chased 13 hurricanes and misjudged landfall in all of them. Of course, that was before The Weather Channel and the wall-to-wall tracking info we have today. Back then, you'd look at the weather reports, hop a plane or jump in a car and head to your best guess.

NASA, on the other hand, MIGHT have had better guessers. After all, they DO deal in Rocket Science.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: WPB Ken]
      #84358 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:07 PM

I understand the satellite images are not a good source to go by. But recent images look like the eye is reforming northwest of the tropical prediction points. It appears to be jogging more the the west than southwest as it was last night.

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smorse22
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl 27.03N 82.19W
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84359 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:19 PM

I agree. Seems to be moving more west. Here is a link.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Drops [Re: smorse22]
      #84361 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:25 PM

There is a trough coming down that may weaken the high and allow IKE to turn more to the north. I believe this is why the weather channel has been looking at the west coast of Forida. Not sure the models are picking this up to a great extent at this point. There are still a lot of variables involved and everyone located in the cone should pay close attention over the next couple of days.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Drops [Re: smorse22]
      #84362 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:28 PM

Models seem to have shifted back to the east again....
Actually the GFDL seems to point Ike right at me!
Also looks like Ike is continuing to strengthen.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: Hugh]
      #84363 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:29 PM

Hugh where do you see the lastest models? Thanks

Quote:

Models seem to have shifted back to the east again....
Actually the GFDL seems to point Ike right at me!
Also looks like Ike is continuing to strengthen.




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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84365 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:41 PM

Next center fix of Mission 4: 944 hPa, 110-115 kt. There is still a slight southward component in the westward movement.

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