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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Drops [Re: Raymond]
      #84367 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:54 PM

Vortex Recon: 947mb, not 944, per dropsonde (944 was via HDOB estimate, and dropsonde found it slightly higher).

Also, 115kt FL wind max; 114kt surface winds. No reduction.

--RC


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Drops [Re: Raymond]
      #84369 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:58 PM

I guess the GFDL I was looking at was 12Z even though it was label 2pm on Weather Underground because the FSU site now has the 18Z and it turns the storm west off the coast south of Louisiana.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84370 - Sat Sep 06 2008 07:59 PM

Quote:

Hugh where do you see the lastest models? Thanks




You can see them here. But don't get too wrapped up in anything except the NHC cone.


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Drops [Re: Raymond]
      #84375 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:17 PM Attachment (235 downloads)

I'm sure some of you already know about this, but if you have a desktop that has the horsepower to run Google Earth, you need to check this out. Go here http://hhrecon.com/recon/ and grab "Live Recon Data in Google Earth". You have to have Google Earth installed. I've attached a clip of recon mission 4 for Ike.

Bill

Edited by BillD (Sat Sep 06 2008 09:18 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Drops [Re: BillD]
      #84379 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:50 PM

It's time to chill out about the GOM.This system is still well SE of Florida.It is gaining strength and slowing down.Let's see what the next 12 hrs holds.A little jog to the north and things change.If you go back a couple of days when it was forecast to hit SE Florida,it is STILL on that track,the rest is up in the air.Large strong canes can have a mind of their own.An all clear for SE Florida can not be made until maybe Sunday night.This is not wishcasting,it is common sence.Look at the latest radar,and then look at Florida,things can change quickly.Notice they have Hurricane warnings north west of the storm,in the central bahamas.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Sat Sep 06 2008 09:54 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Drops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84381 - Sat Sep 06 2008 09:59 PM

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.

Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !


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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc: 27.99N 82.82W
Re: Drops [Re: danielw]
      #84382 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM

I agree. The current models appear to all stop at a point in the GOM where like the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz had to make a decision. Which way do I go! Only time will tell!

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 835
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Drops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84383 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM

I have not seen the southward component in the motion now for several hours. I think the flow is much more zonal now than this morning and the strengthening is a sign the northerly shear and steering is lessened. However, that being said I don't see anything that will turn it although the motion off the western tip of Cuba seems to be S-N. Locakl met is saying right now that the high to the north of Fla will keep Ike to the west and then it will go north off the western tip of Cuba into a weakness and then back to the west as the high reestablishes itself...go figure.

--------------------
doug


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Drops [Re: danielw]
      #84384 - Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM

Quote:

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.




Based on a comparison of the data that was sampled and what was expected (see NHC analysis the ridge to the northwest of Ike is weaker than what was expected. If this weakness is enought to make a material change we will need to wait to see.

Edited by CDMOrlando (Sat Sep 06 2008 10:09 PM)


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Drops [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #84394 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:19 PM

Can you elaborate a little? What do you mean by "data that was sampled" and how it compares to the graphic you referenced? And can you provide a reference to the data? I'm not disagreeing with you, but it would be helpful to those reading this to know what was behind your statement.

Bill


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Drops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84395 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:21 PM

Good comment on priorities. The GOM is in play for the end game but for the short term it has to tangle with Cuba it seems. Personally I think it might move along the north coast and not as far inland as there has been less and less a southward component and a few bobbles of the eye that looked like it wants to pull just enough north of west sooner rather than later and spare the length and breath of the island. However, with cat 4 storms the eye wobbles, it breathes sort of and the shape changes and what can look like a wobble wnw could only be the eye blinking or a part of an eye wall replacement cycle.

The last several frames look like just south of due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html

Longer loops look WSW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

I agree with a few people that said a slow down over Cuba could cause a sharper turn into the GOM later. Hadn't thought that much on it but yes that makes sense.

So speed, forward speed not just wind speed will make all the difference.

Key West is VERY far west, which may sound redundant but needs repeating so it has a long ways to go before it gets closer and so it's harder to tell where it will be that far down the cone.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Drops [Re: BillD]
      #84396 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:22 PM

I wonder are you refering to the Gulfstream data from the sampling down this late afternoon and evening by the Gulfstream Mission. I understand that it should be going into the models tonight.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Drops [Re: LoisCane]
      #84397 - Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 PM

It will be a couple of hours until the next plane gets in there, but Ike's satellite presentation continues to improve, so it is likely continuing to intensify. The Turks and Caicos Islands, particularly Grand Turk Island, will be receiving a very serious blow from Ike in the next few hours. Hopefully everyone is out of harm's way.

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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84402 - Sun Sep 07 2008 12:54 AM

The models seem to be tightly clustered in the central GOM. The models did very well with Gustav before and after it entered the Gulf, so I tend to trust them with Ike. I think the main issue will be forward speed. That will be the key factor in Ike's landfall destination. Slower forward speed would cause more of a threat to the east Gulf, where a faster speed would threaten the western Gulf.

Edited by flahurricane (Sun Sep 07 2008 01:02 AM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84404 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:11 AM

Quote:

The models seem to be tightly clustered in the central GOM. The models did very well with Gustav before and after it entered the Gulf, so I tend to trust them with Ike. I think the main issue will be forward speed. That will be the key factor in Ike's landfall destination. Slower forward speed would cause more of a threat to the east Gulf, where a faster speed would threaten the western Gulf.




The NHC was right on on their long term forecast for Gus,But they also had it missing Jamaica,and it went over the top of Jamaica.Point is,just a little wooble north and all bets are off.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84406 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:19 AM

Quote:

Quote:

The models seem to be tightly clustered in the central GOM. The models did very well with Gustav before and after it entered the Gulf, so I tend to trust them with Ike. I think the main issue will be forward speed. That will be the key factor in Ike's landfall destination. Slower forward speed would cause more of a threat to the east Gulf, where a faster speed would threaten the western Gulf.




The NHC was right on on their long term forecast for Gus,But they also had it missing Jamaica,and it went over the top of Jamaica.Point is,just a little wooble north and all bets are off.





I was referring to the spaghetti models, not NHC official forcast, which were tightly clustered days before Gustav hit LA.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84407 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:33 AM

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Tell me this is not heading almost due west.Look at Florida,and look at Ike,right now this is still more of a concern for south Florida than the gulf,just for the fact it is so much closer to Florida.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #84408 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:36 AM

Quote:

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Tell me this is not heading almost due west.Look at Florida,and look at Ike,right now this is still more of a concern for south Florida than the gulf,just for the fact it is so much closer to Florida.




Looks as though it is back on the forecasts points and once again moving west-south-west. I think the east coast of Florida is in the clear from a direct hit if this motion continues.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: Drops [Re: flahurricane]
      #84409 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:47 AM

he is going west.. due west to the naked eye which can see down into his naked eye that is wide, big and easy to track

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html

sorry that is west...

west was on the table just this more west movement began around 7...

eyes always bobble and he has a big eye..easy to see deep into

please remember they move the forecast points every so many hours ...4 hours into it ... so at the start of the loop it looks always dead on..and then you can double check it later...

and good point..very good..they never saw jamaica coming...

funny part is though that once done with jamaica it went back exactly to it's old path

they are good with track
then again last night around this time there was a different cone

guess we are not big believers with cones as they are meant to be moved and adjusted..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Drops [Re: LoisCane]
      #84411 - Sun Sep 07 2008 02:14 AM

Quote:

he is going west.. due west to the naked eye which can see down into his naked eye that is wide, big and easy to track

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html

sorry that is west...

west was on the table just this more west movement began around 7...

eyes always bobble and he has a big eye..easy to see deep into

please remember they move the forecast points every so many hours ...4 hours into it ... so at the start of the loop it looks always dead on..and then you can double check it later...

and good point..very good..they never saw jamaica coming...

funny part is though that once done with jamaica it went back exactly to it's old path

they are good with track
then again last night around this time there was a different cone

guess we are not big believers with cones as they are meant to be moved and adjusted..




No. Not due west. Those satellite pictures can be deceiving!

As of 2am:

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


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