JonB
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the thing about direction is that it is determined over hours of observations. In this instance IKE is now due west of where he was before Great Anagua. He wobbled just south of west over the island ( it was actually just south of 21N) and then back north of west and now due west..average direction is west. A few more hours of that and he'll be on the northeast coast of Cuba.
I
I agree. It looks like wobbles to me. Ike appears to be heading west on SAT loop. I am sure there will be fluctuations in movement as is common in these storms. A general trend is what to look for. If Ike trends wsw or w and then wobbles north and back west it is not a change just a bobble. I would say three to four consistent model runs for a trend in direction.
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Survived:
Gloria '85, Bob '91, Irene '99, Francis & Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Fay 08'
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Colleen A.
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I'm sorry...I disagree...I have been watching these "wobbles" and to me it appears that Ike is trying to move in a different direction. Not sure where...and you can call me out if I'm wrong..but I think if Ike keeps on his current track, there is no way that he will track all the way through Cuba. Just my own eyes...which have been watching storms for a long time.
Remember...every "cone" is only good for 3 days...and can change at any time.
Not an alarmist post, just a realistic one.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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JonB
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I'm sorry...I disagree...I have been watching these "wobbles" and to me it appears that Ike is trying to move in a different direction. Not sure where...and you can call me out if I'm wrong..but I think if Ike keeps on his current track, there is no way that he will track all the way through Cuba. Just my own eyes...which have been watching storms for a long time.
Remember...every "cone" is only good for 3 days...and can change at any time.
Not an alarmist post, just a realistic one.
Watch the sat http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html. It wobbles nw then N then tracks back west. again you need a trend and the last update verified as due west. I would take the over any other weather forecast out there. The general direction is definitely west.
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Survived:
Gloria '85, Bob '91, Irene '99, Francis & Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Fay 08'
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kromdog
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For now it does look west. But if you keep this "stairstep pattern" up over time, you ultimately will end up more north.
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smorse22
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Colleen,
I will have to agree with you. I'm not a expert but have noticed throughout the day that Ike is trying to go in a different direction. Seems to be moving alittle NW. The Weather channel says that Ike should pass just north of Cuba. We will have to watch this one carefully.
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Hugh
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Colleen,
I will have to agree with you. I'm not a expert but have noticed throughout the day that Ike is trying to go in a different direction. Seems to be moving alittle NW. The Weather channel says that Ike should pass just north of Cuba. We will have to watch this one carefully.
The Weather Channel actually said something DIFFERENT than the official forecast???
Interesting...
I'm not sure one way or the other if it will actually make landfall over Cuba, but I do think it will go north of the official forecast, in general.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Thunderbird12
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Ike took a slight jog to the north after leaving Great Inagua, but has resumed an almost due west motion since then. It is only a few hours away from the coast of Cuba based on its current motion, though at the angle it is taking relative the coastline, it may take a while longer before the entire eyewall makes landfall.
The concentric eyewall structure reported in the last vortex message is still apparent in the double wind maxima reported in the lastest HDOBs from the NOAA plane. So while Ike has been deepening in the last few hours, the max winds will not respond until the eyewall cycle is complete. Ike may make landfall with the double eyewall, leading to less intense winds right near the center (compared to a comparable storm with a single eyewall) but a broader swath of potential cat 2-3 winds away from the center.
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Rasvar
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The track does seem to be trending on the northern side of the cone at the moment. Probably the biggest implication of this would be less time over Cuba and may be in better shape than currently forecast. Not sure it will be that big of a diff in the long term track, though.
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Jim
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LoisCane
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Look at the cone.. one solution has Ike staying just offshore and sliding wnw through the Florida Straits
Goes back to timing and something Ed said a while back..
IF it goes over Cuba, friction slows it down and it comes off weaker. It could more further north if a weakness appears later rather than sooner but it would be a weaker storm.
IF it rides the far right side of the cone... stays over water it will stay stronger, come in to the Lower Keys/Straits faster and as a much stronger storm.
Bands of weather would spread across the Florida Keys FASTER and they would get stronger storms than they would if he was dawdling down on Cuba headed west towards Havana.
so.. timing is a problem as a sooner storm would be a stronger storm
a slower storm would be a weaker storm
I think.
Remember... it is totally within their forecast for Ike to ride the white line on the right of the cone and come off being within the forecast
..... watch the whole cone...
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Random Chaos
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Ok...I'm a bit confused.
SFMR found 119kt surface winds. Dropsonde found 120kt surface winds in a different area. All of this within the last hour or so.
Why does the still have Ike at a Category 3 per 8pm advisory? Those readings are both into Cat 4, which starts at 114kts.
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Hugh
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Ok...I'm a bit confused.
SFMR found 119kt surface winds. Dropsonde found 120kt surface winds in a different area. All of this within the last hour or so.
Why does the still have Ike at a Category 3 per 8pm advisory? Those readings are both into Cat 4, which starts at 114kts.
Maybe they didn't get the info in time to include it in the 8pm advisory? The satellite presentation did seem to indicate a Cat 4 rather than a Cat 3 until 2315, but that was before the advisory time, so maybe it weakened right before the advisory, would be another possibility?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ftlaudbob
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The track does seem to be trending on the northern side of the cone at the moment. Probably the biggest implication of this would be less time over Cuba and may be in better shape than currently forecast. Not sure it will be that big of a diff in the long term track, though.
It would make a big difference to S Florida.LOL.This is going to be an all nighter.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
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Quote:
Quote:
The track does seem to be trending on the northern side of the cone at the moment. Probably the biggest implication of this would be less time over Cuba and may be in better shape than currently forecast. Not sure it will be that big of a diff in the long term track, though.
It would make a big difference to S Florida.LOL.This is going to be an all nighter.
No reason, there is almost no chance the center of Ike can directly affect south Florida (not including the western Keys). The storm is moving west at 14MPH. There is a bit of dryness on the southwest side of the storm along with an eyewall replacement cycle attempting to get going, this makes in more vulnerable to negative factors... Thus the land interaction that will probably take a lot of the punch out of Ike when it gets over Cuba,... and unfortunately it will tear up parts of Cuba as it moves westward.
Ike is on the track, and still moving due west and wobbling both north and south of due west. It looks like it'll be dead on for the next 8-12 hours or so.
Florida is going to miss the worst of it, (Keys will see some effects as it will get pretty close), but the cone at large is off of Florida for good reason I think. Points west, Louisiana or Texas are still the most likely, but there is a good way to go to determine that. Mexico isn't out of the question either if Ike goes further west than forecast (it has a better chance of that then heading more north early). I think points east will still want to watch closely until Ike clears Cuba, but it's by no means something to lose sleep over in Florida.
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Rasvar
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Except for the Keys, who should have been preparing for a major hurricane anyways, this will not be a major effect on S Fla. Some parts of SW Fla could get some TS winds if it passes on the north side of the forecast cone. I still expect this to make a landfall and transit of a good bit of Cuba in some way. I really doubt it shoots the Straights without hitting Cuba.
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Jim
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danielw
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Remember, the wind speeds found above the surface. Whether by SFMR, dropsonde or HDOB are nearly Always reduced to the surface by roughly 90%.
100kt flight level wind reduces to roughly 90mph at the surface.
Flight level wind in knots x 1.15 = flight level wind in mph x 0.90 = surface wind estimate. This is for the 700mb or 10000ft flight level. But it is close enough for the lower levels.
Damage difference between a 100mph surface wind and a 140mph surface wind is roughly the difference between loosing your roofing materials to loosing your whole roof and more.
See the enhanced Fujita Scale at http://www.spc.noaa.gov for more information.
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Hugh
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100kt flight level wind reduces to roughly 90mph at the surface.
Flight level wind in knots x 1.15 = flight level wind in mph x 0.90 = surface wind estimate. This is for the 700mb or 10000ft flight level. But it is close enough for the lower levels.
Uh, check your math Danny 
100kt = 115mph at flight level...
115mph FL * .9 = 103.5mph at the surface
I always look at flight level winds in knots, and just use the same rough number in MPH at the surface, since .9 * 1.15 is 1.035, which is close enough to 1.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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For those interested in the dropsonde I speak of:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ar...;product=UZNT13
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LoisCane
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Well, whatever was going on with that eye which I am sure will analyzed nonstop in the days to come those are some of the most amazing eye images Ive seen in a while
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html
last few frames, amazing
and managing to stay partially over water as part is over land... taking the water road it seems along cuban coastline
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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That was the shortest eyewall replacement cycle I've ever seen, I believe.
It ALMOST appears to me that Ike may be turning south of west... but I'm sure it's my imagination...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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[Uh, check your math Danny
100kt = 115mph at flight level...
115mph FL * .9 = 103.5mph at the surface
I always look at flight level winds in knots, and just use the same rough number in MPH at the surface, since .9 * 1.15 is 1.035, which is close enough to 1.
You are correct. Take the flight level wind and change the knots to mph and that should be near the surface wind.
18 hour days will mess up the grey matter!! 
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