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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: scottsvb]
      #84493 - Sun Sep 07 2008 01:58 PM

And here Ike is:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realt...1151500.1km.jpg

Not a top view, but still a good view. MODIS Terra satellite, at 15:10Z today.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84494 - Sun Sep 07 2008 03:15 PM

Well it sure looks like ike is moving alittle more wnw now ???? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: scottsvb]
      #84495 - Sun Sep 07 2008 03:16 PM

I keep thinking of that track of the 1900 storm for some reason.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1900/index.html

or the 1979 season with the strong high

but none of these storms moved wsw to get here and I really would like some analog storms that show a dip down and then across cuba

anyone?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84497 - Sun Sep 07 2008 03:21 PM

New recon mission in: 950 hpa, 107 kt max flight level wind in a E to NW pass of the center (circular, closed eye). Net movement over 7 hours is straight to the west, but looking on satellite you see a northward component for the last 1-2 hours since he left Great Inauga. Let´s see, if this continues!
12 UTC Modell runs: GFDL stays consistent and sends him to eastern Texas, GFS stays consistent with central Texas, NOGAPS shifts to the Panhandle.


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rmiller1031
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Panama City, FL
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84499 - Sun Sep 07 2008 03:23 PM

I thought the same thing looking at this... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html Is it possibly a wobble or could this be the turn that most of you have been forecasting?

Rick


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Bev
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 98
Loc: Cortez, FL 27.59N 82.43W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: LoisCane]
      #84500 - Sun Sep 07 2008 03:32 PM

Quote:

...

but none of these storms moved wsw to get here and I really would like some analog storms that show a dip down and then across cuba

anyone?




I think Kate and Baker would be the closest equivalents for the track you seek, although neither originated near Ike, both made southward dips near Cuba.

--------------------
Never use a long word when a diminutive one will do.


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: rmiller1031]
      #84501 - Sun Sep 07 2008 03:35 PM

And HWRF shifts to a cat. 3 into Mississippi/ Alabama. HWRF, GFDL and GFS track Ike all to the south coast of Cuba and then to the central gulf with the biggest difference late in the runs. There GFDL and GFS shift more westward, but HWRF stays straight NW or even more NNW.
This is better then all words: Tracks

Edited by Raymond (Sun Sep 07 2008 03:40 PM)


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: scottsvb]
      #84506 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:15 PM

do you think we are now seeing just a wobble to the north? It will be very interesting to see if this motion continues.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: rmiller1031]
      #84509 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:19 PM Attachment (328 downloads)

There is a definite wnw component...how long it will last is anyones guess. This has thrown Ike off the NHC forecast points currently. I have graphic attached. For those in the Keys...this is NOT good news if this motion continues. I find it odd that the models shifted south and this northward component is happening. Is it possible that Hanna's departure is somehow exerting some northward pull on Ike?

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Sep 07 2008 04:23 PM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: WeatherNut]
      #84517 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:49 PM

But the last two center fixes say: movement straight to the west during the last two hours!
Pressure dropes to 945 hPa and the real news: two concentric eyewalls with 16 nm and 48 nm!


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2956
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: WeatherNut]
      #84518 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:50 PM

I don't see any reason to doubt the NHC's path right now, it's still going to move mostly west, right now it's probably wobbling a bit more south and then north, but generally due west. It should eventually slow down and more west northwest.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: MikeC]
      #84519 - Sun Sep 07 2008 04:56 PM

wobbling a bit more south? I don't see any southward movement at all.
It appears to me that the storm missed the current location a bit to the north.... and the it will have to turn left quite a bit to make the forecast track, but anything is possible.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: Hugh]
      #84520 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:00 PM

I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #84523 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:11 PM

Quote:

I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?




They adjusted the track when the new track came out at 5pm ET.. but it looks to me like it's already off that track... maybe it's the overlays on the satellite.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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jf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #84524 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:13 PM

Quote:

I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?




The points were adjusted to the north and it appears as though the NHC has new start points based upon the 5:00PM Bulletin.


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 68
Loc: St. Petersburg, FL
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #84525 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:15 PM

Quote:

I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?




You are not imagining anything. I saw that as well. And as far as a Southern "wobble" Mike, I sure don't see one and haven't seen one in quite a while. If anything, Ike is taking the Northern periphery of the cone right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22
Stormnet
TBW Skywarn Spotter


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #84527 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:15 PM

They change the points after every advisory so you can only see a variation from the points after about 2 hours starts.

Something is off here. I trust the NHC. They have been good but remember one t hing.. look at the picture to the left of the board that flhurricane has up of Ike's path.

See the cone.

Notice that wnw movement IS in the cone... the top part of the cone would be wnw so if it does start a real movment and not a visible wobble than they can say it's still on track

because... its a cone not a railroad track

it doesn't have to jump the track if it goes a bit to the north..they allow that there

so.............................. wait for 8pm, keep watching and remember even though the models go west the cone allows for wnw movement

hope that made sense

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 76
Loc: SW FL
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: LoisCane]
      #84530 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:32 PM

Ike's eye appears to be doing circles inside it's outer eye wall and throwing off our sense of direction - since he's now jogged back west and southwest after wobbling to the northwest earlier. I remember Wilma in '05 doing the same thing as she went through an ERC - except more pronounced since she had such a small eye. Ike's short-term direction will difficult to determine while he continues to do circles. Heck, on SSD loops I can't even tell his overall direction with such wild changes in eye movement. On longer loops the overall direction appears just north of west, but the current direction is really up in the air.

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jf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: Myles]
      #84532 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:39 PM

When looking at the sat images if you apply the LAT/LONG settings you can see that IKE is moving WNW and will again be north of the NHC plot points. If this direction continues for several hours will the cone be moved ?

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 832
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: Myles]
      #84533 - Sun Sep 07 2008 05:39 PM

the thing about direction is that it is determined over hours of observations. In this instance IKE is now due west of where he was before Great Anagua. He wobbled just south of west over the island ( it was actually just south of 21N) and then back north of west and now due west..average direction is west. A few more hours of that and he'll be on the northeast coast of Cuba.

--------------------
doug


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