F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Idalia) , Major: 201 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 201 (Idalia) Major: 201 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | (show all)
Confused
Unregistered




Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Raymond]
      #84938 - Thu Sep 11 2008 05:36 PM

None of the Gulf storms this year have developed in intensity as anticipated. A few years ago, if it made it to the Gulf then it was Everyman for himself and God for us All. I am not complaining, but the intensity forecast have been off for Gulf storms...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Raymond]
      #84941 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:10 PM

The 5pm EDT update moved the path slightly East (puts me on the west side of the storm) but the 18Z GFS and UKMET just came out and both have it going to my West, if the GFDL comes out with it's 18Z and also has it in the same spot it did before, the NHC track should also shift back slightly west. But we are also talking about a matter of maybe 20 miles, much less than the error on the 36 hour track.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rob In Miss
Unregistered




Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: hogrunr]
      #84943 - Thu Sep 11 2008 07:55 PM

The latest WV loop appears to be showing an eye in the last few frames but is to the left of the current forecast tract. A small cricle that could be an eye keeps popping up from time to time but is all over the place relative to the forcasted track.This wobble watching may be playing tricks on my eyes...Anyone else seeing this? I'm beginning to think the circle is not a true eye or the COC but is inside the COC and making the wobbles appear to be more pronunced. Yes? No? Maybe?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: ECMWF Called this landfall back on labor day weekend [Re: Rob In Miss]
      #84945 - Thu Sep 11 2008 08:01 PM

If you have followed imagery of Ike over time his eye has often been on the left, so far to the left it looked open a few times despite the large cloud cover that was round and circular. Something about the strangeness of this storm vs movement. He is also speeding up a little I think and that should also make him look a bit stranger. He is leaning to the left wnw/nw towards the coast line like he is in a hurry.

8pm shows he is now in fact moving 12 mph forward speed not 10, that trend should continue.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Boomer
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Loc: Maryland
Landfall? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84981 - Fri Sep 12 2008 08:13 AM

A lurker amateur question:
If Ike doesn't have a well defined eye, what is considered landfall? When does it occur?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
Re: Landfall? [Re: Boomer]
      #84986 - Fri Sep 12 2008 08:33 AM

There is still an "eye" center of circulation if you will. Just can't see it on the SAT pictures.

I think Ike is the strangest looking hurricane I've ever seen. Just never got ramped up in the Gulf
which is a good thing. It appears that Ike just spread out which hampered it's strenghening.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Forecast Points [Re: hogrunr]
      #85014 - Fri Sep 12 2008 02:50 PM

What not to do in ike:


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Landfall? [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #85017 - Fri Sep 12 2008 03:23 PM

oops... wrong forum!

Edited by ShanaTX (Fri Sep 12 2008 03:39 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Landfall? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #85020 - Fri Sep 12 2008 03:40 PM

Good live TV link for Houston http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/livenow?id=6384042
The local met just said that Ike looks to be strengthening and may already be a Cat 3 with 120 mph winds. He's also thinking that the track may be moved a bit south on the next update.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Landfall? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85023 - Fri Sep 12 2008 03:58 PM

Flight-level winds have supported cat 3 for awhile now, but SFMR obs and the dropsondes that have made it all the way to the surface have yet to confirm cat 3 winds. Unless that happens, or the flight-level winds increase even more, they will probably not bump the intensity up to cat 3.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 177000

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center