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News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge
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Kristi
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Reged: Sat
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Computer models
      #84557 - Sun Sep 07 2008 08:49 PM

I live in south Louisiana, between Southwest Pass and the Sabine River, I looked at the AVNI computer model and it seems as though Hurricane Rita was closest to that model. Historically, how accurate is that model?

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swne
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Re: Computer models [Re: Kristi]
      #84561 - Sun Sep 07 2008 09:22 PM

well regardless of where ike goes it is pretty evident that south fl will feel some winds and rain. this system is massive and by looking at the radar it appears inevitable alot of florida will feel some affects especially if it has any northerly, wobble, jog, moonwalk or whatever. i bet when it arrives into the center of the gulf (if it does) it will encompass 90 percent of it..

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Clark
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Re: Computer models [Re: Kristi]
      #84568 - Sun Sep 07 2008 10:48 PM

AVNI, or the GFS, is one of the better global models. Historically it is not often the best but is often toward the top. However, I would not advise taking one storm -- especially from past years, when the model setup was different -- and using it's performance with that storm to predict what any other storm will do.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)

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