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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: Hugh]
      #84571 - Sun Sep 07 2008 11:44 PM

Does anybody know if Cuba will give us permission to do recon tomorrow ? I know that it's rare for them to give us permission to fly over or get close to there coast but I would expect that this would be one of those rare times that they wouldn't mind .

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1403
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical [Re: smorse22]
      #84572 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:40 AM

Quote:

The Weather channel says that Ike should pass just north of Cuba. We will have to watch this one carefully.





The Weather Channel has said nothing of the sort. Their cone has consistently kept Cuba completely in the mix, and their OCMs broadcast based on that cone. See for yourself (LINK)

Let's please keep attributions on the lead page in this forum more restricted to those we can provide bona fide links to, with less speculation, hearsay and loose interpretation.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1114
Loc: fl
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: HCW]
      #84573 - Mon Sep 08 2008 12:51 AM

GFS 0Z run up to 120hrs is alittle east (50-100 miles) from the 18Z run. After that, it takes IKE northeast towards a landfall next Sunday around Mobile Al-Pensacola Fl. First off (like I always preach) anything more than even 3 days out is not even a 50% chance it will come true, and after 5 days its less than 25%. The reason its slightly east in the near term is cause its alittle slower with a slightly weaker midlevel-ridging and a faster flow across the continental U.S. The longer range shows a stronger front than the 18Z and also the cold front further east.
Like I said earlier today, I suspect IKE to slow down due to the first trough swinging by and missing him in a day or 2. This will create a weakness in the ridge and he may meander (like Hanna) until the next trough (as shown in the 0z run) picks him up. Question is How Fast Will The Trough Come Down? How Strong Will The Trough Be? and Finally, Where is IKE Located When He Hits The Weakness? 88W? 86W? The 3 Questions for the Extended Range, but first lets focus on the nowcast as model runs change, but focus mainly on the GFDL and GFS!


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: HCW]
      #84574 - Mon Sep 08 2008 01:29 AM

Quote:

Does anybody know if Cuba will give us permission to do recon tomorrow ? I know that it's rare for them to give us permission to fly over or get close to there coast but I would expect that this would be one of those rare times that they wouldn't mind .




They will, on occasion, allow the NOAA high altitude flights but never the Air Force flights.

The 0Z GFS is an interesting change. It is also the first run that did get some of the high altitude ingest. Will be interesting to see if this is just a blip or not. Since the GFDL feeds off of it, I suspect there will a shift in that model too. However, I think most dramatic changes are post 120 hours.

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cate
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 13
Loc: Florida
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: HCW]
      #84576 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:36 AM

Quote:

Does anybody know if Cuba will give us permission to do recon tomorrow ? I know that it's rare for them to give us permission to fly over or get close to there coast but I would expect that this would be one of those rare times that they wouldn't mind .




Since the US has refused to temporarily suspend the embargo for people in the US to assist family and friends in Cuba, why should they accommodate us????

I know, I know...probably off-topic, but we're talking about peoples' lives here.

edit: Cuba will suspend overflight for Life Safety reasons I'm sure. A CAT 3 or 4 on an east to west track should qualify as a Life Safety issue.
I recall RECON flying near and possibly over Cuba at least once this year. Probably was Dolly. ~danielw


Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 08 2008 03:06 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: cate]
      #84578 - Mon Sep 08 2008 03:15 AM

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

VALID SEP 08/0000 UTC THRU SEP 11/1200 UTC

IKE...
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH IKE OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RUNS...THOUGH MOST OF THE TREND HAS BEEN SINCE ITS 07/12Z RUN.
SINCE ITS 12Z RUN...IT HAS SLOWED IKES FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH VARIATION SEEN OVER ITS
PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...DUE TO CHANGES IN SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
IKE...
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH IKES
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE WELL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD SEEN IN THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM 12Z...THEY LIE AT THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING SEEN IN THEIR SURFACE LOW
POSITIONS. WHILE THIS IS A GOOD PLACE TO BE FOR A RECURVING
TROPICAL CYCLONE /WORKING OUT WELL FOR GUSTAVS INLAND TRACK AND
HANNA ONCE IT FINALLY MOVED NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/...IT HAS NOT BEEN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR FORECASTING IKE AS
IT HAS MAINTAINED A MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAN ANTICIPATED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SPREAD. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS ON IKE FROM NHC FOR ITS FUTURE TRACK.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: danielw]
      #84579 - Mon Sep 08 2008 03:19 AM

That slow forward speed is going to be real nasty at any Category!!!

WHXX04 KWBC 080530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 8

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

...
FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LAT LON HDG/SPEED(KT)
102 27.5 90.3 295./ 8.2
108 28.2 90.9 316./ 8.8
114 28.7 91.5 312./ 6.7
120 29.1 91.8 325./ 4.9
126 29.4 92.0 321./ 4.3


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: danielw]
      #84580 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:27 AM

At this time all my feelings are with the cuban people, which suffer Ike´s fury. This is a horrible catatrophe for this country, which effects nearly all of the country. Don´t want to be come overly political, but I certainly don´t like the attitude of the US government to not lift the embargo for some time for some help in the face of this catastrophe.
I know the home of this forum is in Florida in the US and all your concerns are of course for the coming US landfall of Ike. Sometimes I have a bit of a feeling, as Cuba is seen as a kind of impersonal obstacle in the way of Ike, which has the positive effect of weakening Ike and making him less dangerous for a later US landfall. If this would be the case, I would wish, that you can feel, that there are people like you on Cuba, which suffer like you would be in the face of such a catastrophe.

Now to the meteorological situation: Cuban radar shows Ike continue to move to the west. Only around 6 hours longer of this west track and Ike`s core would be over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. So very small deviations can have a lot of impact.
Latest GFS/GFDL/HWRF model runs are a bit frightening conerning the later US landfall. All three slow Ike down around day 5 at a bit differnet points with a N/NE turn. The GFS does it already a bit before the coast , the strormfield already effecting the coastline and this for a very long time and then turning it NE to Alabama or so. Ike is till over the Gulf at +168 h. The GFDL slows it down a bit later around the landfall in the middle of Louisiana around +126 h. The HWRF is the most horrible for New Orleans. It also slows down Ike just before the coast of Louisiana. It´s still over water at +126 and you see with the last frame, that it turns NNE, which would mean, that IKe would move directly over New Orleans later on.
This isn´t the point to worry too much about the US landfall, because modell shifts are still huge and the whole of the northern US gulf coast is under the gun.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: Raymond]
      #84581 - Mon Sep 08 2008 04:41 AM

Quote:

This isn´t the point to worry too much about the US landfall, because modell shifts are still huge and the whole of the northern US gulf coast is under the gun.




I agree....really, not much if any at all of the gulf coast is in the clear yet.

Part of the Area Forecast Discussion out of Tallahassee this AM....

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...THIS FCST PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IKE. INITIALLY,
THE 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING IKE WNWWD
INTO THE SERN GOMEX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WRN PORTION
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
GENERAL NWWD TRACK THROUGH THE CNTRL GOMEX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
TOWARD THE TX/LA COASTS BY THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z GFS
WHICH STALLS IKE SOUTH OF THE LA COAST, THEN LIFTS IT NEWD BY A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAN WHAT THE OTHER MODELS ARE
INDICATING, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A RADICAL DEPARTURE FROM THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST.
REGARDLESS, ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY IKE AS IT SPENDS
SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE NHC FCST
TRACK. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE GFS` WINDS AND SEAS, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN IKE`S INTENSITY AND SIZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH CUBA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS FAR AS TEMPS AND POPS ARE CONCERNED, WILL LEAN
CLOSE TO THE GRIDDED MOS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IKE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Note that the last ECMWF takes Ike near the Texas/Mexico border.

ECMWF

Check out the link below. I don't recall seeing it here but may be wrong. It has a lot information compiled in different format....you may like it.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Mon Sep 08 2008 05:52 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1021
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Wind Speeds and Category [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #84584 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:58 AM

5am NHC discussion mentioned that the eyewall was disrupted. Based on Cuban radar, it looks like the eyewall was open on the SE quadrant.

Since that time, the eyewall looks to have closed and reformed...over land. Both Microwave imagery and Cuban radar show this.

Cuban radar: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif
Microwave imagery: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/AT...N-766W.57pc.jpg

Additionally IR (via SSD) satellite shows the convective cloud tops re-encircling the eye area.

From everything I can see, Ike is doing everything it can to fight off the effects of land.

It's current track, per IR, looks to take it offshore south of Cuba for a short period of time before recrossing Cuba. Ike is also forming up a new convective band well out in front (east) of the main convective cover. This has become distinctly evident on the last couple IR frames. The storm appears to be growing in size as it's core is weakened.

This could become very interesting. Wonder how long it will keep fighting to keep it's core intact. Still has another day overland...unless it manages to escape N or S for a short while.

Edit: Just going to point out the latest GFDL (0600Z), just available in the last 10 minutes, shows Ike with it's eye partially to completely offshore south of Cuba for most of it's traverse of tie island before recrossing about where Gustov did. Looks very close to the track I am seeing on IR.

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 08 2008 08:08 AM)


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