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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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gsgs
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 9
Loc: Germany
damage predictions
      #84614 - Mon Sep 08 2008 02:18 PM

are there hurricane damage-estimates (forecasts), which are being updated
when new storm-data come in ?

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Sep 08 2008 02:35 PM)


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ClarkModerator
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: 45.95N 84.55W
Re: damage predictions [Re: gsgs]
      #84636 - Mon Sep 08 2008 05:22 PM

There generally are not, at least not publicly available, just expectations for various weather features (rain, wind, etc.).

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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gsgs
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 9
Loc: Germany
Re: damage predictions [Re: Clark]
      #84673 - Tue Sep 09 2008 02:34 AM

there should be a general list, how much windspeed is expected to cause how much damage
in which region.
This could be combined with the forecast-models.

I remember, I saw a quick estimate of the Gustav damage before the first reports
about actual damages came in

expected (local) damage is more important, more interesting for the mitigation,
evacuation plans than predicted paths and windspeeds


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: damage predictions [Re: gsgs]
      #84674 - Tue Sep 09 2008 03:09 AM

In a way, your question gets to another topic of discussion I have long advocated: Replacing the Saffir-Simpson scale with either a major overhaul, or something entirely new. I have my own share of ideas regarding this, and it has everything to do with IMPACT forecasting, rather than an almost myopic focus on maximum sustained wind speed (which occurs when using Saffir-Simpson).

You are right to put your finger on the crux of the problem: Currently, public forecasts (which are based on getting word of an expected Saffir-Simpson level out) by its very nature, focuses not on impact, but on some really rather arcane rating based on some core of wind that is unlikely to occur in roughly 99% of the total affected area.

For impact forecasts, I have long appreciated TWC. They truly *get it*. Leading up to most significant landfalling tropical cyclones, Dr. Lyons typically creates an impact forecast for "real people," if you will. Four of the key components of his forecasts cover:

Rain/Flooding potential
Wind damage potential
Wave threat potential
Storm surge potential

and are updated to reflect what is going on and what is expected.

You can read more about what Dr. Lyons has had to say about this subject here.


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gsgs
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 9
Loc: Germany
Re: damage predictions [Re: cieldumort]
      #84675 - Tue Sep 09 2008 05:03 AM

yes, looks similar to what I want.
What's TWC ?

They still need the windspeed-analysis, but only as a tool to predict damage.


BTW. why limit to 5 categories representing the windspeeds ?
Just give the speed. Or if folks can't remember their relations and significance,
extent it to fractions like Cat2.7 , see earthquakes.


I'd like several forecasters giving subjective expected damage predictions,
(expectation value,deviation) and an analysis who gives best predictions
as with the "competition" here with the several forecasters, forecasting-models.

And prediction-markets trading damage-contracts, with the opportunity to
"insure" by shorting damage-contracts. Well, there are catastrophe-bonds,
but only for big institutions

hmm... maybe I should start a different thread


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cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: damage predictions [Re: gsgs]
      #84733 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:20 PM

What's TWC ?
The Weather Channel (Click on the link I provided above for more on TWC & Dr. Lyons)

They still need the windspeed-analysis, but only as a tool to predict damage.
Yes, but the "analysis" as it is currently conveyed (by way of the Saffir-Simpson Scale) gives a horrendously unclear picture of what that damage is going to be like. (Ignores things such as the total duration of damaging winds, the radius of damaging winds, radius of exceptionally damaging winds, etc.)


BTW. why limit to 5 categories representing the windspeeds ?
Just give the speed. Or if folks can't remember their relations and significance,
extent it to fractions like Cat2.7 , see earthquakes.

Rating tropical cyclone windspeeds is not at all as simple as the Richter Scale. A "Cat 2.7" would never work, whatsoever. It would only be a worsening of an already flawed system.

I'd like several forecasters giving subjective expected damage predictions,
(expectation value,deviation) and an analysis who gives best predictions
as with the "competition" here with the several forecasters, forecasting-models.

Good luck with that! Hurricane forecasting is simply not that precise, and likely won't be for decades to come. Forecasters might have contests that could be tracked, but you're likely to get more snake oil than not, until forecasting improves markedly.

And prediction-markets trading damage-contracts, with the opportunity to
"insure" by shorting damage-contracts. Well, there are catastrophe-bonds,
but only for big institutions

I believe what you seek for the rest of us to be able to trade here already exists. (Oil futures, grain futures, etc.) While not "damage contracts," these are pretty darn close, when you think about it. As close as it's going to be given the state of the science -- although, I think more exactly of what you want might be a nifty item on Intrade.


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