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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84646 - Mon Sep 08 2008 06:59 PM

Currently in Lee County, Florida, we have started to feel the effects of Ike. Current conditions are winds of up to 20mph, and we are getting downpours of rain. They have told us to expect Tornado Warnings..The Keys have a mandatory evacuation also..

http://www.nbc-2.com/Articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=21463&z=63

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84650 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:23 PM

and based on the floater loop it moved faster than expected. it still could cause a little trouble in the keys especially if its a trend going farther north and not a jog

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84651 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:25 PM

I just pulled up the Key West long-range radar, and the eye of Ike is just within the radar range, it looks like. Assuming it IS the eye, this is another indication that Ike is beginning to wobble or turn, and is just onshore along the south coast of Cuba.

Edit: Well, as Raymond indicates below.. it must have been a wobble because the Key West radar also shows what the recon did, that the LLC is offshore. Radar now seems to indicate a west wobble.

8pm is out.... and CONFIRMS motion is now WNW at 12mph... so, the turn has begun....



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Mon Sep 08 2008 07:50 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84653 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:39 PM

gfs has gone from Mobile al last night to Brownsville TX on latest run....shows after 3 days, models are still far from accurate

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84654 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:39 PM

No, last center fix some minutes ago shows it just offshore moving WNW. The wind data would justify a cat. 1 with 70-75 kt. It looks like, as it should move just offshore parallel to the coast for a while and then go past Cienfuegos a bit inland later on. Nevertheles it`ll be a hard fight for Ike to stay a hurricane!

Edited by Raymond (Mon Sep 08 2008 07:40 PM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Raymond]
      #84655 - Mon Sep 08 2008 07:48 PM

And the very latest GFS run (18:00 UTC) shows it making landfall at the Texas-Mexico-border. So will it be no US-landfall in the end?
And the HWRF follows with a 917 hPa-landfall near Corpus Christi, TX.
And wow, Air Force Recon is leaving straight to the north via Cuba. Haven´t seen this yet!
And a final edit: The GFDL follows with a 942 hpa-landfall near Corpus Christi, too. Very good agreement between this three, even in the face of the fact, that the two hurricane modells GFDL and HWRF get their border data from the global GFS. Landfall time in around 102-108 h ( should be the night from saturday to sunday local time).
And a Good Night to Florida!

Edited by Raymond (Mon Sep 08 2008 08:18 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1235
Loc: South Florida
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: andy1tom]
      #84658 - Mon Sep 08 2008 08:47 PM

well that was what i was worried on .. winds picked up in miami strong tonight, winds 29mph with gusts 42mph
so though expected i was wondering if the weather mass itself was also lifting higher

hard to tell but i think he is moving faster.. hard to tell

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_09L/webManager/displayJavaBy12hr_21.html

looks wnw on this loop

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Hugh]
      #84660 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:37 PM

Quote:

Quote:

just as I thought the models were doing a great job moving Ike westward. This will be a Texas storm. Keys probably will get tropical storm conditions.




It's still too early to say with certainty that Ike will be a Texas storm. Certainly current models point that way, as does the official forecast... but... Ike appears to have already made its second landfall over Cuba, just a few hours after moving offshore. It's too early to determine if this is a wobble or a definitive change in motion, of course, but it appears that Ike is a considerable distance north of the forecast track.

Edit: Local (WALA FOX 10 in Mobile) weather just said "we could be getting some rain from Ike later in the week"... if Ike were certain to move to Texas, Mobile would not get rain, would it?





I tend to trust the NHC and hurricane forecast models rather than local weather stations. Every local station on the gulf I'm sure has said "we may see rain etc due to ike". Also its not impossible that you will see rain. Bands from the storm could effect a large area as it passes to your south, toward Texas.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84661 - Mon Sep 08 2008 09:48 PM

I am compleately flummoxed with this storm . Has anyone a handle on IKE?
I am unable to differentiate deasil from widdershins.
HELP!

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1006
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #84667 - Mon Sep 08 2008 11:14 PM

A video of Ike's affect on Cuba: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

Maybe someone that speaks spanish can clue us in on what they are saying.

Ike looks to be regenerating some now that it is over water. GFDL keeps the storm mostly over water until it reaches the western tip of Cuba. Going to be interesting watching where the storm actually heads.

NHC has released it's 11pm, keeping Ike at Category 1, though a very well organized yet disrupted category 1. The official forecast cone calls for landfall almost anywhere in the northwest portion of the gulf, from LA through northern Mexico. Expect variation in this cone as the storm continues to defy long range predictions, as it has most of the last week (ergo, even if you aren't in the cone, beware).

-- RC


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1235
Loc: South Florida
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #84669 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:03 AM

The NHC has a good handle on the storm. It wobbles nw .. it wobbles west, when you "smooth out the movement" it's wnw.

And, really he has been an easy storm in ways compared to the others...w or wnw or wsw at 14...

Rarely sped up, hasn't stalled out (watch him do it now) and hasn't done any really strange deep dips..

Just plods along, at one point I was worried on the Yucatan today but think he'll go the distance to the borderlands.

Images from Cuba spellbinding..

And... Ike looks strong to me. Not a wet storm ever, read a few times when he was a 4 he was a dry, windy storm like Andrew.

Still spinning, and pounding Cuba and he found his way to stay over water as much as he could.

A very memorable storm.

NHC is doing a good job...their 5 day not withstanding .. but their 3 day has been pretty good.

Great pic
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/atlantic/tropics/vapor/LATEST.jpg

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1113
Loc: fl
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84671 - Tue Sep 09 2008 01:11 AM

IKE is pretty straight forward since Sunday morning. I'm still guessing a Corpus Christi-Brownsville landfall even though models want to now take this further into Mexico.I'll wait for Tuesdays 12Z run but it looks good by looking at other data.

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Mike V
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami, FL 25.75N 80.23W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84683 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:17 AM

Quote:

A video of Ike's affect on Cuba: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03JU_ScZJtg

Maybe someone that speaks spanish can clue us in on what they are saying.
-- RC



Basically they are saying about the waves going past the five story building, sustained winds of 40 km/h with gust to 140 km/h, the extensive flooding, rains and damage.

MV

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Mike V]
      #84692 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:22 PM

The center of Ike is about to pass over the mountainous area of eastern Cuba. The amount that it gets disrupted will be crucial to its eventual intensity. Conditions over the Gulf look like they will be very favorable for intensification in the next 36-48 hours, but maybe less so after that. If Ike takes a long time to recover from Cuba, it may miss its window of opportunity for significant intensification.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3482
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84698 - Tue Sep 09 2008 12:58 PM

At Ike's current speed. He should reach the GOM in 2 hours.
At better than 124nm range the EYE is defined on radar.

The ride is about to get very rough. The Captain has turned on the Seat Belt sign. And Key West is about to see some thunderous rainfall.



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: danielw]
      #84704 - Tue Sep 09 2008 03:09 PM

Ike seems to have a rather strange structure, with a very large cyclonic circulation, but only a very small inner core area, and a substantial dry area outside of the immediate inner core. If that inner core comes apart again in its present state, Ike may never fully recover. So far, IR tops are warming, but the inner core appears to still be intact.

The dry area surrounding the inner core could also be a disruptive factor if it persists and if Ike ever attempts another ERC at some point in the future.


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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: Normal Hurricane Weather [Re: danielw]
      #84706 - Tue Sep 09 2008 03:28 PM

Quote:

The ride is about to get very rough. The Captain has turned on the Seat Belt sign. And Key West is about to see some thunderous rainfall.




I don't know about any captains turning on signs, but you are correct about rainfall, danielw...as here in my state of Florida, especially South Florida - we are certainly feeling the outer effects of Ike's gusty winds and moisture.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?l...ire=0&tor=0


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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.95W
Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: ltpat228]
      #84709 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:01 PM

West Coast (Cape Coral) currently getting squalls and wind gusts from Ike's outer bands...

Not a good day to ride the Harley..

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #84710 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:12 PM

Recon just welcomed Ike in the Gulf. HDOB says: pressure 968 hPa, no winds higher then 55 kt at flight level and surface until now. Let´s wait for the vortes message!
edit: Ok, 62 kt estimated surface wind and an circular eye open to the SE.

Edited by Raymond (Tue Sep 09 2008 04:35 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Raymond]
      #84711 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:36 PM

HDOBs indicate a secondary wind maximum well removed (around 60-70 miles) from the center. The tiny inner core is still there but is rather feeble looking right now. It'll be interesting to see how Ike evolves over the Gulf.

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