Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Recon found a center for 93L (VDM), so it is likely to be upgraded to a depression soon.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 109 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3284 (8 y 11 m) (Wilma)
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84712 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:44 PM

Yes, the circulation is really huge and the winds in this remote band to the ENE are even higher as in the center (66 kt flight level, 74 kt surface). The inner core doesn´t look strong. I would gues, that Ike needs a lot of time to recover over the Gulf. We will see!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Christian
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84713 - Tue Sep 09 2008 04:46 PM

I have been using Cuba's government weather site for tracking Gustav and Ike. Here is the link to a radar that is closest to Ike: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../csbMaxw01a.gif .

Christian


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
forward speed slower..dynamics in shape [Re: Christian]
      #84715 - Tue Sep 09 2008 05:19 PM

what if....the models re-calculate the forward speed...now that it is going just 10 miles per hour...
they didn't predict this slow down...

what if....it slows down more?

NO one is out of the cone right now....the models and the projections tend to push more polar and east....and the hurricanes tend to go right of the forecast models....

the outflow is impressive in all four quadrants, the inner core is well established...and as the NHC said..it will pass over very warm eddies....with that....it was mentioned that a stronger storm would tend to go more north on the forecast track...

I see a much more northerly hit that the NHC is posting....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Fasten Seat Belt [Re: Christian]
      #84717 - Tue Sep 09 2008 05:43 PM

Pressure already down on second AF Recon pass... down 1 mb...

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 21:15:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°54'N 83°42'W (22.9N 83.7W)
B. Center Fix Location: 33 miles (53 km) to the N (359°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,820m (9,252ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg) - Extrapolated

L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:39:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb

Kermit is inbound from the NW and about to pass the AF Recon heading outbound

Dropsonde released in the NE eyewall supports a Hurricane... winds from 70-80mph less than 2kft above surface

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 09 2008 05:45 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2967
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: LoisCane]
      #84720 - Tue Sep 09 2008 06:44 PM

Now that Ike is back over water in the Gulf, Central to Northern Texas needs to be watching closely. I updated the main page with more information.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: MikeC]
      #84722 - Tue Sep 09 2008 07:27 PM Attachment (198 downloads)

The last couple frames of IR show an eye starting to reform, and radar from Key West confirms it within the last 15 minutes.



The eye had previously collapsed on IR and Radar following it's pass over the mountains in Cuba, between Daniel's post and it's exit over the gulf water.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84723 - Tue Sep 09 2008 07:33 PM

In the last sunlight on very recent visible imagery you can see the forming of hot towers in the eyewall. This could be the start of the formation of a strong and healty core!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Raymond]
      #84728 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:10 PM

According to SST data from NOAA, this rapid regeneration is over a relatively cool location in the GOM:

SSTs: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008252gosst.png
Huricane Heat Potential: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008252go.jpg

Also, IR data is showing a rapid reformation of a strong core, though aircraft recon has not indicates winds or pressure beginning to pick up. It's headed strait toward the Loop current - so we will see what happens over the next 24 hours.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Raymond]
      #84729 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:12 PM

Ike's about to hit the loop current which Gustav missed. I think Ike could become a very dangerous hurricane.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl 30.16N 81.63W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84730 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:13 PM

What is the loop current?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: 30.47N 84.29W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84731 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:16 PM

The loop current is an area of very warm water to significant depths which can fuel tropical systems. At this time it is located in the southeast Gulf.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl 30.16N 81.63W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: flahurricane]
      #84732 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:20 PM

Thank you. I just did some reading about it and it seems that most of the hurricanes that have passed over it intensified to no weaker than a CAT 3, most of them being 4's or 5's.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84734 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:26 PM

Given Ike's existing organization even after passing over Cuba for a day and a half, combined with the rapid reformation of the core, that Ike is heading toward the loop current has me quite worried as to his potential.

Shewtinstar, if you look at the Hurricane Heat Potential link I provided in my above post, the orange finger sticking up into the Gulf is the Loop Current. It is a relatively stationary current that cycles water vertically causing the water to be very warm very deep, and thus providing excellent power source for hurricanes.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl 30.16N 81.63W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84735 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:37 PM

And given Ike's track, it looks like he will be over the loop for a while. That can't be a good thing.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84736 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:49 PM

For those interested in the reformation of the core, the eye is clearly visible on:

Key West Radar
Cuban Radar
IR Satellite
Microwave 85GHz Polarization Corrected Temperature

Additionally, the system appears to be flaring convection in two outer spiral bands to the SE and to the NW. At the same time, it appears to be shedding outer convection outside these two spiral bands.

Last, the hurricane hunter is continuing to report little to no change in central pressure per HDOB data, and flight level wind maximas appear to be quite low. The central pressure supports significantly higher winds than are being found in the central core. In fact, SFMR has not recently detected any hurricane force winds on a storm that has a pressure that should indicate category 2 winds should be found.

This is a storm badly disrupted by Cuba, but very much intact organizationally. It's satellite appearance appears typical of a storm much stronger than we are seeing, and with the convection flaring and a definite eye developing, it has all the characteristics of significant restrengthening over the next dozen hours. Unlike Gustov that came off Cuba with bad disruption in the core and having been ripped apart organizationally, Ike is showing none of these signs of further deterioration, and in fact is showing the opposite results.

It is simply amazing to see a storm that has been over land so long stay so intact.

Edit: And soon after I post this, recon HDOB detected 64kt surface winds via SFMR - that's the minimum for hurricane force, so it's definitely back to a category 1 storm. Too long enough for the plane to find winds that strong...and in the Western eyewall too. Wonder what the E and NE have by now - probably stronger.

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Sep 09 2008 10:11 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 139
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84737 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:51 PM

I think Ike might become our first (and maybe last) Cat 5 of the season. Too early to tell yet, but the storm has doubled in size since just before it hit Cuba, yet the core of the storm is still well and intact after coming off the coast.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
shewtinstar
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Jacksonville, Fl 30.16N 81.63W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #84738 - Tue Sep 09 2008 09:54 PM

It looks like Ike is almost stationary in the radar loops.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 139
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: shewtinstar]
      #84741 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:38 PM

I dunno, the last few frames it looks like when the eye reaches 23.2N 84W it started taking a westward jog and is about now at 23.2N 83.4W. The storm will probably be jogging between W to NW motions until it intensifies enough to resist the effects of the ridge to it's north.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Ike jogging back to the NW? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #84742 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:44 PM

11pm is out... TD sums it up nicely

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008

...IKE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...


One thing i noted.. Ike slowed down just a tad.. to 8kts

I expect ike is about to make a run up to a strong Major Cane in the next 12-24 hrs...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

just watching the loop, its amazing to see the inner core flare up and an eye pop up in the center of convection... nice inner banding showing up. i see the eyewall is closed per last vortex

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 09 2008 10:51 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheElNino1
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Orlando
NHC 11PM is very conservative on Ike's future intensity [Re: MikeC]
      #84743 - Tue Sep 09 2008 10:56 PM Attachment (235 downloads)

Ike has that 'look' this evening of becoming a formidable hurricane very soon. It has a small eye but a large area of circulation to pull in and focus a lot of energy. I expect significant strengthening over the next 48 hours with a very favorable environment with the loop current providing extra fuel to intensify. Look at this pic of Camille. She had a small eye but also had a large circulation in the Gulf.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: ****
Topic views: 41468

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center