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Atlantic Basin has Turned Quiet Again.
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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Forecast Points [Re: Raymond]
      #84779 - Wed Sep 10 2008 11:43 AM

Since last night I have observed a couple of things. The outer bands of cold cloud tops that were swirling around the center in 2 large globs have since all but disappeared. The coldest cloud tops are now closer to the center so Ike is bundling the energy closer in. Ike was undergoing an EWR when it hit Cuba the first time which it did not complete totally. I think what is happening is that the smaller eye is eroding in favor of a larger one. This was mentioned in the 11am discussion. Once the new and larger eye forms (and I have little doubt it will), I think we will see some rapid deepening. The question is does Ike do this in the time he has? This slow motion right now is just buying more time.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: Forecast Points [Re: WeatherNut]
      #84782 - Wed Sep 10 2008 12:03 PM

This would be not a classic ERC. There isn`t a second concentric wall, but an outer band trying to wrap around. Yes, it could wrap fully around and take over the center later on, but it`ll take time!

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Forecast Points [Re: Raymond]
      #84791 - Wed Sep 10 2008 01:50 PM

Evacuations are starting:

Texas: Brazoria County

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for zip zone 77541, a special needs evacuation order is in place for the entire county. A voluntary evacation is in place for the entire county. Residents in the coastal areas and those requiring transportation from Brazoria county to Bell County must rush their preparations to completion.


Galveston County:

A voluntary evacuation will begin this afternoon for Bolivar Peninsula... The west end of Galveston Island, including Jamaica Beach, San Leon, Bacliff, Bayou Vista, Omega Bay.... Tiki Island...Dickinson...Kemah...and Clear Lake Shores.

Citizens may also consider evacuation if they live in low-lying areas subject to flooding or in mobile homes. If you decide to evacuate... please remember to pack your disaster kit and important papers.

The Galveston-Bolivar ferry will likely cease operations at 11PM Thursday night.

Jackson County:

A voluntary Evacuation has been initiated for the entire county.

Matagorda County:

A mandatory evacuation has been ordered for people who live and work south of Highway 355.

This mandatory evacuation includes the communities of Palacios, Ashby-Buckeye, El Maton, Collegeport, Matagorda, Wadsworth, Sargent, Cedar Lane, Chinquapin, Tres Palacios Oaks, and Tidewater Oaks.

Blessing is also included in the mandatory evacuation even though it is north of highway 35. The mandatory evacuation does not include Bay City or Van Vleck.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Forecast Points [Re: MikeC]
      #84800 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:36 PM

Is anybody paying attention to what is actually going on with IKE? Its structure is not too good, and I have seen as much northern component to the movement as westward (It does not seem to be making much progress actually).

What is going on?

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Vertically Stacked [Re: doug]
      #84802 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:42 PM

It's not very often that you see a Vortex Report with the surface center inline with the 10000 foot center.

URNT12 KNHC 101805 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/17:29:50Z
B. 24 deg 10 min N
085 deg 43 min W
C. 700 mb 2738 m
D. 68 kt
E. 312 deg 052 nm
F. 027 deg 073 kt
G. 312 deg 053 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 15 C/ 3047 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 02 CCA
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 17:15:00 Z
SFC CTR VISIBLE; COLLOCATED WITH FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 315/06NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 79KT SE QUAD 1732:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 76KT SE QUAD 1732:00Z


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Forecast Points [Re: doug]
      #84803 - Wed Sep 10 2008 03:48 PM

I have noticed that northward component all day..and not just for a couple of hours, either. I would say that if this continues, it is not going to be considered a trend. In fact, the 2pm has it going NW (which I can see..it goes a little west, then north - but more North).
I don't know what's going on...but people all along the Gulf Coast better pay real close attention to Ike.
We got hit by a squall here in Lakeland that had small trees bending over - and I bet the winds were over 40mph..and dumped at least 1" of rain into the McDonald's we were at when it hit. Meanwhile, everyone was staring at the TV screen as they showed Ike supposedly going W/NW.
Remember..some of the outlier models had further east of the current track..only a couple, but that could change.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: danielw]
      #84804 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:00 PM

From the last two Vortex fixes... difference is 0.10 N/ 0.08W.
I think that would be more NNW... ugh!

URNT12 KNHC 101939
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 10/19:09:50Z
B. 24 deg 20 min N
085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2723 m
D. 70 kt
E. 046 deg 10 nm
F. 140 deg 089 kt
G. 046 deg 091 nm
H. EXTRAP 958 mb
I. 11 C/ 3046 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 08
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 18:33:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 47 / 9NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
SFC CTR COLOCATED WITH FL CENTER
SFC WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY


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Scott3294
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 5
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: danielw]
      #84806 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:04 PM

Nothing too scientific, but if you run this animation and rock it back and forth you can see pretty clearly that it is moving between 315 and 325 degrees...so NW or NNW seems right.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: danielw]
      #84807 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:11 PM

Ike has a huge circulation. The most recent vortex message indicates that the max FL wind of 93 kts was found 91 nautical miles (about 105 statute miles) NE of the center. That is quite a bit stronger than any winds found near the center of Ike. Ike's size and the presence of outer wind maxima will make it a struggle for Ike to intensify very rapidly. The rather anemic inner core needs to become much, much stronger for Ike to consolidate. Otherwise, slow intensification and lower max wind speeds than you would expect from the central pressure will be the rule.

Ike was drifting north earlier, but seems to have resumed a mostly NW motion. The weak trough to the north of Ike is in the process of lifting out, so Ike should make a turn back to WNW later tonight.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Scott3294]
      #84808 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:14 PM

Yes,,you can see it...but I wonder why and what is causing this NW/NNW motion? Is there a weakening in the high pressure that is supposed to be so strong? Or is it just a temporary motion since it's going so slow? Or is it just that our eyes have been watching this storm for so long that we're seeing things?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Colleen A.]
      #84811 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:23 PM

some of the models had Ike moving more NW in the Gulf until the high builds west, which would turn the storm more west..the diff. is not too much, but the shift in the GFDL continues to put Houston more under the gun...the slower speed means the turn may begin more near landfall

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
nw movement...perhaps nnw [Re: Colleen A.]
      #84813 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:27 PM

and I thought I was the only person in the world that was seeing this thing to the right of the NHC's track. I've been seeing it since I woke up at 4:00....a slowdown and a more northerly component...

a coupla models had it heading in this direction...all the way to Mobile/Pensacola.

two things to consider:
if it explodes to a cat 3 or larger...and it sure looks like it's only a matter of time.....it will get more POLAR...in it's tendencies....

and the high might not be strong enough to push it west. Dr. Lyons thought that the stronger it got...the more to the right of the CONE it would go....

it sure looks like a Louisiana and even more right of that event. I am NOT understanding why the NHC is so SLOW to respond to changing their cone. maybe big pressure on them right now...since obviously huge evactuations and money are involved...and the last thing they need is confusion.

I am seeing a huge shift from the supposed path....huge.....


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Colleen A.]
      #84814 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:30 PM

Hurricane Watch:
Port Mansfield to Cameron
TS Warnings Mouth MS to Cameron
Cat 4 at 48 hours. 115 kts gusting to 140 kts

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #84815 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:36 PM

Yes I see that trough and that was forecast too wasn't it. I note it has some depth, with a little push down over Alabama and Georgia.
But what of the high in the W GOM? Won't that necessarily force IKE to follow the western edge of the high that has directed it so far? What of the timing on this? Will IKE slow down further?
Things may be changing I think.

--------------------
doug


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: HCW]
      #84816 - Wed Sep 10 2008 04:37 PM

If you look at the CIMSS steering maps Ike is sandwiched between the Atlantic High, and the Ridge over the Western Gulf. With a weakness between the two. Until one builds, or weakens, or the two merge Ike is going to continue to meander around about where he's been.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 998
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Vertically Stacked [Re: doug]
      #84818 - Wed Sep 10 2008 05:13 PM

From the 5pm:

"THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE."

Doesn't mention anything about motion, which is barely moving right now.


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