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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Josephine Lounge
      #83747 - Tue Sep 02 2008 07:58 AM

This is the lounge for TD#10 (Josephine), right now I think the most likely fate of this is the classic fish spinner, but there are some models bending it back more west, the NHC is also leaning toward moving more west, so the jury is still out .

Edited by John C (Tue Sep 02 2008 02:05 PM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #84797 - Wed Sep 10 2008 02:43 PM

Just thought I open up this lounge and say Josephine's rements are still out there around 17.5 N and 58W as of Weds afternoon. Some models want to pick up on her but its pretty iffy right now. She has a flare up enhanced by the upper low to her west. If she can gain more convection and get a better defined circulation in a day or 2, she might be a threat to the bahamas!

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scottsvb
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #84915 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:09 PM

Josephine or 91L heading to Florida. Now in what strength, its hard to tell. Most models have a strong wave- a moderate tropical storm. Alot of dry air might be a problem for this to become more, but not sure yet.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #84916 - Thu Sep 11 2008 02:22 PM

What models are you looking at? What I can find shows two going south of FL (maybe one grazing the tip) and two out to sea.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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scottsvb
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: Ed in Va]
      #84925 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:06 PM

Um,, CMC, GFS,GFDL,HRWF,Nogaps,Ukmet, and most dynamical models! LOL, now again, most have this as a strong wave, some show up to a moderate T.S ala (ships,GEM)

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Robert
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #84927 - Thu Sep 11 2008 03:22 PM

I hope they keep the name Josephine! I have been watching this area and well id say there is 50% of her contribution. The developing part that is. Had there been no wave to entrain i think the remants would not have fired back. Further there is the argument well had there been no remanints then the wave would have developed so pick your poision.

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jessiej
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Loc: Pembroke Pines, Fl 26.02N 80.33W
Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #84946 - Thu Sep 11 2008 08:55 PM Attachment (508 downloads)

The NHC Tropical Cyclone Model Output Maps site is showing Invest 91 as a Low Pressure System. See attached.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005


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Ed in Va
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: jessiej]
      #84947 - Thu Sep 11 2008 09:17 PM

Well, that really nails the track. I guess we're going to have to wait awhile for anything definitive.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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DianneT
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Loc: Davenport, FL, USA 28.29N 81.68W
Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #84949 - Thu Sep 11 2008 10:04 PM

Hi! I'm new here. Here's my question. Since Josephine was once a TS and then not a TS, if she forms again, will she still have the name Josephine or the next name on the list? Thanks!

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Evan Johnson
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Reged: Fri
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: DianneT]
      #84984 - Fri Sep 12 2008 08:28 AM

i dont believe the storm will. once it leaves status of a tropical storm and the NHC center stops tracking it and it comes back it will most likely be issued a new name. so long as ike is still lurking this new tropical low will be a weather-maker for florida. latest wind steering product here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF . i personally dont think there is a enough time for this thing to get any stronger then a tropical depression, but who knows.

Edited by Evan McCone (Fri Sep 12 2008 08:32 AM)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #85009 - Fri Sep 12 2008 01:42 PM

This area showing a bit of interesting convection firing today. Looking at the models for this, it could head right across Florida. I know all attention is focused on IKE, but does anyone have a read on whether this is going to develop/expand/stay the same?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #85061 - Sat Sep 13 2008 09:28 AM

right now it looks like the leftovers of josephine are having a hard time of doing much of anything. there is no forward movement right now it is kind of lurking which can be a bad thing if it were somewhat organized however, that is not the case. i will be watching it all day to see if it musters up enough steam to stay organized and begin a westwardly or north westardly movement whatsoever.

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scottsvb
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Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #85064 - Sat Sep 13 2008 01:16 PM

Upper Low has been hindering this for days now. The ULL never went SW as predicted by the NHC. Chance of this becoming a TD is less than 10% in the near term.

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Evan Johnson
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Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
Re: Josephine Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #85065 - Sat Sep 13 2008 02:00 PM

only one model has this thing spinning up into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours. the closest it will get is borderline tropical depression before it makes any kind of landfall. id sooner concentrate on the area of showers out to the east that actually have time to develope into something.

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