Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
North of Antigua
      #85088 - Wed Sep 17 2008 11:56 PM

A new tropical wave is firing a burst of convection north of Antigua. The wave is under light southerly wind shear and has very little movement - perhaps a slow westerly drift. Elsewhere the Atlantic Basin is tranquil.
ED

Added: Not really a tropical wave after all - its a developing upper level low with a difluent zone that is enhancing convection over the Islands. However, enhanced convection north of Panama is associated with a tropical wave.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 18 2008 08:06 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: North of Antigua [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85089 - Thu Sep 18 2008 10:47 AM

The southwestern Carribean has been under a generalized area of lower pressure for a while. The models show this but nothing is supposed to popup in the near future. However, this is the area we will need to watch more now that we are moving past the peak Atlantic season. Some hefty late season storms have developed here (Mitch comes to mind.)

(It is interesting that today's discussion did classify the activity north of Antigua as a wave interacting with an upper low and indicated a low level of probability for development.)

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Sep 18 2008 10:58 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: North of Antigua [Re: doug]
      #85090 - Thu Sep 18 2008 03:13 PM

There have been models and discussions about possible development off the east coast next week. Here is the
Wilmington NC take on it:

AN INTERESTING ASPECT TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SCENARIO IS HOW MANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL LOW COULD PICK UP
WHILE OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE HPC EXTENDED
DISCUSSION GIVES MORE DETAILS ABOUT POSSIBLE IMPACTS SHOULD AN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OCCUR. MORE MUNDANE TO CONSIDER...BUT
SITUATIONS SUCH AS THESE OFTEN WRAP CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH WHICH LIMITS THE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD PENETRATION OF RAIN.
THE UPPER LOW INLAND MAY MITIGATE THIS SOME...BUT MANY POSSIBILITIES
REMAIN OPEN. SINCE THIS IS STILL A 6 AND 7 DAY FORECAST WE HAVE ONLY
RAISED POPS 10-20% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL DETAILS CAN GET HAMMERED
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Here's the actual HPC discussion"

...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS PROVIDE IMPUT FROM 06Z GFS/DGEX AND
ECMWF ENS MEAN..CHANGES MADE ARE TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ECMWF BUT
WITH MODIFICATIONS TO ITS SFC PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS THE EAST
COAST DAYS 6 AND 7 MORE TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF OP MODELS TOWARDS
MORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
SUBTROPICAL LOW/HYBRID TYPE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INCREASING THE WIND FIELDS TO FULL GALE OR STORM CONDITIONS
LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. DGEX AND
CMC INDICATE FULL BLOWN TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WHILE EVEN THE MOST
CONSERVATIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE AS DO THE ENS
MEANS. BELIEVE IT PRUDENT TO START LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE
SIGNIFCANT THREAT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A WESTERLY PHASE MJO
AND FAVORABLE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H250 AND H850
COVERING AN AREA INCLUDING THE TROPICAL EPAC/GULFMEX/CARRIBBEAN
AND OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH ATLC SEABOARD/BAHAMAS.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Thu Sep 18 2008 03:15 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: North of Antigua [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85091 - Thu Sep 18 2008 04:44 PM

Interesting discussions. The HPC comments may be influenced by what appears to be the remnant low-level circulation of the former 'Josephine'. The circulation is still intact near 23.2N 67.3W at 18/20Z moving to the west northwest at about 10 knots. Occasional convection is still firing to the northeast of the center and windshear ahead of the system is forecast to decline in the next 48 hours.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Cat 5orBust
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 90
Re: North of Antigua [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85094 - Thu Sep 18 2008 09:42 PM

we have 93L now. Need to wait for some more computers to run, but the few that have run (BAMS) AND CMC take it over Hispaniola.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Taz16
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Re: North of Antigua *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Cat 5orBust]
      #85096 - Fri Sep 19 2008 02:52 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: North of Antigua [Re: Taz16]
      #85098 - Fri Sep 19 2008 02:19 PM

Today's HPC discussion on possible EC storm next week...maybe more of a northeaster than a tropical system:

THE ATLC COASTAL SIGNAL HAS BEEN SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW PLACING
A 1035-1040 MB HIGH IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
IN THE WEST ATLC AND ALONG THE COAST ALONE. ALL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE INDICATED SOME CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY EVEN A
SUBTROPICAL LOW. GFS SERIES HAS BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE WHILE CANADIAN AND DGEX HAVE BEEN MORE TO THE LEFT.
PREFERENCE IS TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET AND LATEST DGEX OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE GA COAST MOVING NWD TO ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BRISK/STRONG ONSHORE WINDS
TO THE MID ATLC SOUTHEAST COAST TUES INTO FRIDAY AND NWD UP THE
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THREAT OF GALE TO STORM FORCE COASTAL AND
OFFSHORE WINDS/PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH TIDES WITH ENHANCEMENT BY
NEW MOON PHASE/COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION/AND HEAVY COASTAL
RAINS. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 6993

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center