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Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2953
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again
      #85108 - Sat Sep 20 2008 10:12 AM

It's been over a week since Hurricane Ike made landfall in Texas and it's been relatively quiet in the tropics. However, 93L in the eastern Caribbean may form over the next few days. Convection is higher on the eastern side of the system. It has about a 50/50 shot of developing.. It would likely affect Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (again).



Beyond that a few waves off Africa have an outside chance of developing later. But most of next week will likely be slow as well, with things perhaps gradually getting more active. (But not nearly as active is the past several weeks)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

93L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85109 - Sat Sep 20 2008 11:17 AM

FYI, I think you may have put up the wrong graphic for the spaghetti model for 93L. Seems to be for a different storm because when I pull up the models from the tagged link, as opposed to the graphic, its completely different.

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KikiFla
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Miami, FL 25.83N 80.20W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: lawgator]
      #85111 - Sat Sep 20 2008 12:30 PM

I think that is an old model plot for Ike when it was near the Turks and Caicos...

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cosmicstorm
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Loc: Florida 26.48N 80.16W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85113 - Sat Sep 20 2008 01:16 PM

Actually, I think it was the model runs for the remnents of what had been Josephine. At any rate that graphic is in need of an update. The links are accurate to SFWMD plots. This new area has an increased probability of forming according to the NHC as upper level winds are expected to become more favorable over the next few days. I was enjoying the break in the tropics.

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ltpat228
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL 27.20N 80.30W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: cosmicstorm]
      #85115 - Sat Sep 20 2008 01:50 PM

The below link is directly from Skeetobite's web site displaying 93L.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93&a=2


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85117 - Sat Sep 20 2008 02:36 PM

It's been a nice break since Ike, however things seem to be ramping back up once again. There is a lot of convection in the tropics that will need to be watched, as conditions become more favorable for development.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2295
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: MikeC]
      #85118 - Sat Sep 20 2008 07:14 PM

The model plot on the Main Page has been corrected.
Thanks,
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85121 - Sun Sep 21 2008 07:28 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W THROUGH A
WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N67W TO CURACAO AND THEN INTO NERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS
GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-68W...INCLUDING THE
NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 21 2008 07:30 AM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: danielw]
      #85122 - Sun Sep 21 2008 07:50 AM

Radar imagery out of PR would seem to indicate that there may be a circulation centre south of St Croix, moving slowly north or north-northwest.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Rich B]
      #85124 - Sun Sep 21 2008 10:49 AM

Quote:

Radar imagery out of PR would seem to indicate that there may be a circulation centre south of St Croix, moving slowly north or north-northwest.




Satellite imagery would seem to indicate that the circulation is still not very organized overall, though, with a lot of westerly or southwesterly shear. In fact, I'd say that the radar shows only a very broad circulation (not enough for NHC to pull the trigger, I don't believe). Recon will tell the tail this afternoon - I'd definately say it's organized enough to go ahead with the flight, even if its not yet a depression.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Hugh]
      #85125 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:01 AM

Where is the center is the question? There is a low level center and a mid level center and it hasn't pulled together yet clearly that I can see though recon may solve that problem.

Next problem.. it's moving very slowly, really just hanging there and going to give prolonged rain totals to PR and other areas already hard hit.

I would think the longer it sits there (and it's forecast not to move fast) the further west it will creep with the lower level flow.

Can see pre-banding going on... I'll give it an A for putting on a real show but for actual strength... a C-.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: LoisCane]
      #85126 - Sun Sep 21 2008 11:06 AM

The NHC has (30 minutes ago) issued a STDS... saying that a tropical depression could form at any time. Per the STDS, recon is now on the way, so the first advisory should be issued on TD 11 by 2pm, I'd say.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Hugh]
      #85127 - Sun Sep 21 2008 12:42 PM

Well... we'll see. Gonna watch. It's a big system even if you can't find it's center well.

And... even moving northwest/north it will bring heavy weather to areas already hurting.

Thanks for update.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: LoisCane]
      #85128 - Sun Sep 21 2008 01:48 PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1217 PM AST SUN SEP 21 2008

.UPDATE...DISTURBED WEATHER AFFECTING THE NE CARIB REGION THE PAST
24 HOURS OR SO AND ASSOCIATED WITH A SW TO NE AREA OF ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED
AND OVAL IN SHAPE... WITH STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTING VIGOROUS MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN A CLUSTER OF TSTORMS INVOF 17N 66.3W.

THIS FEATURE HAS DRIFTED SSW DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... BUT WITH
SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR NOW SUGGESTING A MORE NE MOTION AND
ELONGATION OF THE RAINBANDS THAT WERE DEVELOPING AROUND THIS
APPARENT LOW.
TUTT LOW TO THE NNW OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIFTING SLOWLY NW AND ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO RELAX... AND BANDING ON THE E SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THUS
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ON ITS WAY TO BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON
STLT SIGNALS AND DOPPLER WINDS I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT THE HURRICANE RECON FLIGHT FINDS 35 KNOT WINDS AT 5-8K FT
BETWEEN SE PUERTO RICO AND ST CROIX. REGARDLESS OF WIND
STRENGTH... THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE A HEAVY RAIN MAKER FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE E AND SE SECTIONS OF PR AND FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... AND A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT N FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THIS ELONGATED
TROUGHING REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE... AND MID
LEVEL HIGH BUILDING INTO SE CARIB UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH OR LOW MAY THEN LINGER ACROSS THE ATLC WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY... AND COULD
PROLONG THIS RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THUS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND 4 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Sorry about the length... lots of info.~danielw


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Hurikid
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 14
Loc: Barbados
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: LoisCane]
      #85129 - Sun Sep 21 2008 02:28 PM

Recon inside "tropical disturbance" now. Finding FL winds of 47 mph and they're not flying THAT high. It might def. be our next tropical storm by tonight if not by 5 p.m. or even inbetween now and 5

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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: danielw]
      #85130 - Sun Sep 21 2008 02:37 PM

Looks as if this system is trying to get going. Conditions are favorable for further development. The good news for us in the US, is that, given the current conditions, it should move north and be a fish spinner.

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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: k___g]
      #85131 - Sun Sep 21 2008 02:54 PM

No, that isn´t correct. All modells turn it NW later on in the forecast period and show a landfall in North Carolina or more to the north in about 6 days. The hurricane modells forecast a cat. 1-2 with central pressure around 970 hPa.

Edited by Raymond (Sun Sep 21 2008 02:55 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Raymond]
      #85132 - Sun Sep 21 2008 03:01 PM

Interesting timing on all those mid-Atlantic/NE landfall, as today is the 70th anniversary of the 1938 Long Island Express which killed 500 people.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Tropics Slowly Stirring Once Again [Re: Hurikid]
      #85135 - Sun Sep 21 2008 05:39 PM

Quote:

Recon inside "tropical disturbance" now. Finding FL winds of 47 mph and they're not flying THAT high. It might def. be our next tropical storm by tonight if not by 5 p.m. or even inbetween now and 5


Not yet, still no low level circulation. From the STDS issued at 4:15 (see the top page for full text):

THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

Bill


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Re: San Juan Area Forecast Discussion afternoon version [Re: Ed in Va]
      #85136 - Sun Sep 21 2008 05:46 PM

The mid level center is over Puerto Rico. So it´s a bit complex, to define it and to find a closed low level circulation. Recon found 41 kt at the flight level to the SE. The meteorological conditions for developement are quite good. So I guess we`ll get the first warnings, if we have a well defined center over water to the north of Puerto Rico.

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