Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2008 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch
      #85254 - Mon Oct 13 2008 10:31 AM

6:45PM EDT Update
Also beyond, TD#15, another system in the Southwestern Caribbean is likely for Development tonight or tomorrow. This system is moving generally northwest. Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Northwestern Caribbean will need to watch this one.


10:50AM EDT Update
The 15th tropical depression has formed, in the Central/Eastern Caribbean. The current forecast track takes it over Puerto Rico as a Tropical Storm.

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Original Update
An active wave in the Eastern Caribbean is likely to develop into a depression or storm today, the current projections place it over Hispaniola (Again!) and will have to be watched by them and Puerto Rico as well as the Virgin Islands.

It is likely to move generally to the northeast.

More to come soon...

Nana continues to move west northwest, and will likely not last past 24 hours before it dissipates.

TD#15 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#15


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#15 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#15 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#15

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#15
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#15 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Nana Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nana


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nana (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nana (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nana

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nana
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nana -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #85255 - Mon Oct 13 2008 01:43 PM

so the navy has 99L.INVEST now... wow... October is busy now... I'm interested in the western Carb. system... when it starts moving north more... i think it has the best chance to develope at this point to be something to watch... especially for Cuba.. Jamica... etc. NW. Carb.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Oct 13 2008 01:57 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #85256 - Mon Oct 13 2008 04:07 PM

The GFDL and hwrf move it along the Nicaraguan coast into Belize while the MM5fsu-merge has it follow 15L. Of course, future model runs will have more substantial data input.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch [Re: MichaelA]
      #85257 - Mon Oct 13 2008 06:23 PM

What could be Paloma looks to be a wild card as it's hard to say for sure what that will do. 15 seems to be your typical "get me out of here" November sort of system but not sure on the other area that looks like it should or could be a depression soon.. if not more.

Amazing after such a quiet time we could be a day or so away from having Omar and Paloma. Go figure. The lull definitely seems to be over in the tropics!

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch [Re: MichaelA]
      #85258 - Mon Oct 13 2008 09:23 PM

The models may be onto something with regard to 99L, but it doesn't make sense climatologically to me. October systems are more likely to move poleward, aren't they? It seems very odd that TD15 (future Omar?) is forecast to move northeast, which 99L/future potential Paloma is forecast to move west.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch [Re: Hugh]
      #85259 - Mon Oct 13 2008 10:14 PM

The models are seeing High Pressure building over the GOM. If 99L was more east it would likely linger until a weakness developed but right now the models see it going in to CA.

The Tampa Bay force field is working this year for the whole state of Florida.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #85260 - Tue Oct 14 2008 12:52 AM

Navy has 90L.INVEST now... looks like it's S of Nana. NHC says < 20% chance of development in next 48 hours. But it sure looks like more than a bunch of thunderstorms to me... but I could be confused.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Depression #15 Forms in East Caribbean, Puerto Rico Needs to Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #85261 - Tue Oct 14 2008 01:27 AM

The tropical Atlantic has turned back on very much according to climatology, in that we are hitting the October secondary-maximum that is often seen before the usual long goodnight into winter weather. This climatological upswing is related to a substantial increase in thunderstorm activity associated with increased basin-wide instability. However, unlike September, shear is much more pronounced over a much larger area. This environment tends to be supportive of smaller, weaker and shorter-lived systems, and so far, this is about what we have been seeing.

TD-15 looks to be caught in a cull region of very weak steering currents. Even though models and the official forecast seem to insist on sending it off to the northeast, if its current erratic drifting continues as the trough to its north hesitates on diving much farther south, 15 could become quite a bit more landlocked in the Caribbean than advertised, and could eventually begin following 99L to the west-northwest. Definitely a number to watch for all with interests in the Caribbean, eastern Mexico, central America, and possibly even the southern United States. Not a whole lot holding this one back from strengthening, either, and things could even become much more interesting if the upper-level trof opens up an outflow channel to 15's northeast the next few days.

99L is another upgrade just waiting to happen. The TUTT scooting off to its northwest should continue to pull this deepening incipient tropical cyclone either into or around central America, eventually leaving open the door for the Yucatan to eastern Mexico, and, perhaps, some risk for the southern U.S. Several days out still making the odds of this all a bit clouded. Intensity-wise, upper-level conditions are beyond superb, and so, despite its size, 99L has an environment very favorable for some rapid intensification upside surprises. Its one single potential impediment to such rapid intensification is proximity to and interaction with land.

Nana has almost become nada, leaving the door open for 90L to become more dominant. 90L is one of those smaller satellite systems that, had it been closer to home, recon certainly would have flown and likely found to be another stunning micro-tropical cyclone, the incredible second of this season that has set several all-time records in the Atlantic basin, and now even at least one if not two global records, as well. Maybe reanalysis will do 90L that justice, even if it does get upgraded Tuesday. Either way, it's probably mostly a fish spinner.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 9 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 8707

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center