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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
93L Lounge
      #85663 - Fri Jun 26 2009 02:20 PM

this is the lounge for discussion on the long range of 93L.

Right now the only lounge worthy topic is the HWRF model, which suggests Florida's west coast may want to watch out for this system sometime next week. It's in the lounge since it is likely to change before then. Any time there is no set certain center of circulation (like right now) longer range models are a crap shoot at best.

The SHLP Model puts it close to hurricane strength toward the end (see the intensity models). This will probably change also, but means it's worthy to be watched.

HRWF Model Run for 6/26


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hogrunr
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Western Caribbean Flaring Up [Re: MikeC]
      #85665 - Fri Jun 26 2009 03:12 PM

For easier viewing...



This Weekend will show a lot more information as far as direction. The steering front that will be present over the northern gulf will make the final determination, so like Mike said above, really any of these models could be true at this point. I think the strength is a little bit more determined, if this survives the trip over the Yucatan, it shouldn't strengthen much more than upper TS to Cat 1.

Edited by hogrunr (Fri Jun 26 2009 03:24 PM)


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