CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserves 403rd Wing (the "Hurricane Hunters") have just arrived in Hawaii this afternoon from their 'home port' at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi to begin making regular 6-hourly flights into Hurricane Felicia tomorrow.
The information they collect will assist the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, located here in Honolulu, to begin Tracking and Forecasting Hurricane Felicia as soon as she enters the Central Pacific Ocean, sometime on Saturday.
Also, the high flying Orion P3 Aircraft is already in Hawaii and has been hard at work for the past 2 days, collecting and transmitting data to the & CPHC for use as guidance in preparing the forecast packages and advisories.
Today's Requirements:
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS:
1. HURRICANE FELICIA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0108E FELICIA
C. 07/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 08/1800Z
NEAR 19.7N 140.5W.
A G-IV MISSION FOR 08/1200Z.
Tomorrow's Requirements:
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE FELICIA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 08/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0208E FELICIA
C. 08/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT - TEAL 70
A. 08/1800Z,09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0308E FELICIA
C. 08/1400Z
D. 19.4N 140.1W
E. 08/1730Z TO 09/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71
A. 09/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0408E FELICIA
D. 09/0145Z
D. 19.6N 142.7W
E. 09/0530Z TO 09/1215Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
A G-IV MISSION FOR 09/1200Z
There's a lot going on here in Hawaii. Follow along and feel free to post your thoughts and comments!
Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Aug 09 2009 01:28 PM)
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NickH
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Nebraska
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This is definitely a potentially exciting weather event. Depending on how organized the system is when it arrives, it could be significant. I'm concerned about the heavy rain that could result over the mountainous terrain of the Island of Hawaii. Especially the longer the the system holds together in such an organized manner. This was what I was worried about with Hurricane Flossie 2yrs ago, but luckily it stay far enough away that the torrential rain bands stayed offshore. A direct hit from even a dying Felicia could mean something worse. I'm very impressed with the system so far. It's staying fairly decent in strength over waters that are pretty much lacking much oceanic heat content. I think the shear will be a strong determinant of how strong it'll be when it makes landfall. I was thinking it would arrive as a depression, but now i'm thinking 40-45mph tropical storm isn't out of the question at all, even with moderate shear distorting it.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The lifting on the windward side of the island is the major concern determining rainfall. It won't be "pretty" at all. I'd expect flash flooding and slides.
--------------------
Michael
PWS
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NickH
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Nebraska
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Quote:
The lifting on the windward side of the island is the major concern determining rainfall. It won't be "pretty" at all. I'd expect flash flooding and slides.
Agreed. WFO Honolulu seems to think so too. Here's the point forecast for Hilo from Monday-Wednesday:
Monday : Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 78. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.
Monday Night: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 71. Windy, with a north wind 20 to 23 mph becoming north between 36 and 39 mph. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
Tuesday: Frequent showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 80. East wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tuesday Night: Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 73. East wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday: Showers likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
They seem pretty confident this system's moisture plume is gonna produce lots of rain. 
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NickH
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
Loc: Nebraska
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
334 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2009
...FELICIA TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE...
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI LEEWARD-LANAI MAKAI-LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-LEEWARD HALEAKALA-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-KONA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
334 PM HST SAT AUG 8 2009
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...MAUI...MOLOKAI AND
THE BIG ISLAND
* FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING INCREASING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED TO PREPARE NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA. ROCK AND MUDSLIDES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE THE HEAVY RAIN BEGINS.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY...FLOODING RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR EVEN WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF FELICIA.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
$$
BURKE/R BALLARD
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The P-3 Orion (pictured above) usually flies the same altitudes as the WC-130J Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft do.
Surface to about 12,000 feet on reconnaisance missions. Enroute altitudes are much higher.
The NOAA 49 referred to in the Plan of The Day is a Gulfstream 4-SP jet aircraft. Reconnaisance flight levels up to 45,000 feet are common.
See the link to the NOAA Aircraft Ops site.
http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/aircraft.htm
The WP-3s are NOAA 42 and 43.
More info here:
http://www.aoc.noaa.gov/aircraft_lockheed.htm
The U.S. Navy also operates P-3 Orions for weather reconnaisance, anti submarine and anti smuggling missions.
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/fact_display.asp?cid=1100&tid=1400&ct=1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-3_Orion
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 09 2009 09:39 AM)
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Aloha from Hawaii,
I've been away for a day helping friends to prepare for 'the big blow', now that it is certain that a weakening TS Felicia will be tracking *right through* the Main Islands from East to West.
In 30 years of living in Hawaii, I have *never* seen this occur. Either the storms will transit south of the islands, like TS Lana did last weekend, or veer off to the north still some distance from the Islands (Hurricane Daniel, 2000).
But a even more likely scenario is for the storm to have been *sheared further east*, and nothing more than a remnant low (not even a Depression!) will roll through and disrupt the tradewinds for a few days, making for very humid and muggy weather. 
There is both good news and bad news for the Hawaiian Islands. The good news of the day is, of course, that the Westerly Vertical Wind Shear has arrived right on schedule, and has already made it's presence apparent. By effectively blocking the upper portion of the cyclone in it's westward progression, while the increasingly exposed low-level circulation continues to chug westward, Felicia is ungoing the process of 'de-coupling'.
This Microwave Image of Felicia, taken at around 3:30AM Hawaii time, clearly shows the now largely exposed low-level circulation in shades of light blue and the remaining deep convection (with bright red reflectivites) being held back 50-60 miles to the east, thanks to the westerly wind shear!
If you look closely, you can actually see the remaining 'eyewall feature', open to the NW, as a bright red "J" shape, some distance to the east from the now fully exposed LLCC, which clearly indicates that the storm has decoupled.
Hence, Felicia has been downgraded to a 70 mph tropical storm, just under the threshold of a minimal hurricane, but still a very strong tropical storm none-the-less.
======================
The bad news is ...
More coming soon ....
Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Aug 09 2009 01:34 PM)
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