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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Tropical Storm Felicia
      #85847 - Mon Aug 10 2009 10:50 AM

TS Felicia should pass just north of the Big Island (Hawaii) and pass over Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Oahu on Tuesday - probably as a minimal Tropical Storm with isolated wind gusts in the mountains and passes as high as 50mph. Heavy rainfall likely from Monday evening through Wednesday morning (HST) with tropical depression conditions spreading to Kauai and Niihau Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. High Surf and rip current advisory for the eastern and northern shores of all islands through Wednesday.

Use this forum for additional updates on Felicia and to report observed weather conditions associated with the storm. Flooding is the likely major concern with Felicia, so if you live in the Islands, stay safe.
Mahalo,
ED


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CoconutCandy
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia Tracking Towards Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85852 - Mon Aug 10 2009 09:41 PM

Aloha Friends and Thank You Ed. Busy here in the Hawaiian Islands with folks getting ready for Tropical Storm Felicia.

Surprisingly, Felicia is *still* a respectible 40 Kt. Tropical Storm. Although struggling against SW'erly vertical wind shear and having all it's convection, what's left of it, severely displaced 100 miles to the NE of the LLCC, Felicia continues to buck the shear and is hanging in there with sustained winds of 45 mph, with gusts to 55 mph, in a broad area in the Northern Semi-Circle.

So we in Hawaii are not out of the woods just yet. And with the forecast track of TS Felicia expected to pass through the central Islands, things could still get *pretty interesting*, to say the least!




...

This is the *FIRST* time, after living in Hawaii for almost 30 years, that I have *ever* seen a Tropical Storm (there have been many very weak 'remnant lows') approach the Islands straight from the East and threaten the Islands with possible Tropical Storm Force damaging winds and torrential rains leading to possible flash flooding. Very, very unusual, to say the least !!

Will be updating here throughout this afternoon and into tonight (Hawaii time!) to see just what effects that Tropical Storm Felicia will bring to these Islands.

Sure hope we get some drenching rains from this (but not flash flooding!), as El Nino years tend to be very dry, but now that the Northern 1/2 of Felicia seems to be passing well north of the Big Island, their drought conditions are likely to persist there.

Alas, yet *another* tropical cyclone is brewing far to the ESE of the Islands (TD- 9E) and is expected to enter into the Central Pacific mid-week, next week as a Tropical Storm, and again will be approaching the Hawaiian Islands in some fashion or another.

Busy, busy, busy! Sure can tell it's an El Nino Year !!

Edited by CoconutCandy (Mon Aug 10 2009 10:04 PM)


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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Felicia Downgraded to Depression - Flooding still Possible [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85877 - Tue Aug 11 2009 10:34 PM

Great News Folks !! The Westerly Shear *finally* took it's toll on TS Felicia, weakening it even further, and now it is just a 'sniggling' little Depression, just northeast of the 'Big Island', tracking west, right through the Central Islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Oahu.

However, we're not totally out of the woods quite yet, as several juicy-looking spiral rainbands will be spinning through in the next day or two, so there remains a pretty decent chance we could still get some locally heavy downpours, leading to possible flash flooding.



It's *definately* going to be really HUMID and uncomfortable in Hawaii these next few days, as the flow will be from the S/SE. Looks like our 'natures air-conditioning', (our much beloved tradewinds), will be returning just in time for the weekend. Yay!

Tropical Storm 'MAKA' has formed well to the SW of the Hawaiian Islands and is tracking towards warm waters on it's way to the Dateline. So, Tropical Storm 'MAKA' will, in a few days time, become *TYPHOON* Maka !! (UPDATE: Maka never quite made it and is now dissipating, as of 8/12, well SW of the Islands.)

Also, a weak Tropical Depression, "TD-9E" is 1/2 way between Hawaii and Central America. It's struggling now with a very dry environment, but it is expected to enter into the Central Pacific as a TS, and where it goes from there is far too early to be certain. (UPDATE: TD-9E is having a tough go of it, too. NHC has dropped it for now, but it *might* regenerate further west in 2-3 days time.)

'Tis the season !! Looks like we're in for a BEVY of Tropical Cyclones in the EastPac/CenPack this season. And to think, *3 and 1/2 months* of Hurricane Season yet to go. Gonna' be a busy year ... just 'have it in my bones' !!


Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Aug 13 2009 05:43 AM)


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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Remnant Low of Felicia Brings Beneficial Rains to Middle Hawaiian Islands [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85923 - Thu Aug 13 2009 02:20 AM

So, as it turns out, it's the best possible outcome of all !! The center of circulation of Tropical Depression Felicia slipped through the Alenuihaha Channel (between Maui and the Big Island), all the while further weakening into a 'Remnant Low'.



Which is GREAT, because it brought the 'rain shield' in X-Felicia's Northern Semi-Circle right up and over Maui and Oahu. Certain parts of mountainous Oahu, up over the Ko'olau Mountains, picked up as much as 8 inches of rain !! And some other areas around 3 inches or so, and even the agricultural areas on Oahu (Waimanalo, Ewa Plain, Central Valley, etc.) got at least an inch or two, so that made the farmers *very* happy.

But the remnant low is still spinning just a hundred miles SW of Oahu, drawing up tons of moisture-laden air from points south, and 'swinging' it in long, curved arcs towards Oahu and surrounding coastal waters.



And, after totally dropping the "Flash Flood Watch" yesterday, it was re-implemented this morning due to these developments and remains in effect until at least tomorrow.

A few inches is great, but we don't need storms to 'train' over mountainous terrain for hours on end and dump 10-15 inches, which has sometimes happened in years past with passing, decaying tropical cyclones.

So, we're *still* not entirely out of the woods, quite yet. Let's see what transpires overnight here in the Islands.

And, there are several other cyclones in the EastPac (TD-9E and newly-named Tropical Storm GUILLERMO - "He-air-mo") that *might* effect Hawaii's weather in a week or so. Far too early to tell, of course. I will post about them in the coming days to a fresh thread. Much to watch, much to prepare for. We're getting a 'bumper crop' of TC's this year, that's for sure. Busy busy!

Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Aug 13 2009 02:52 AM)


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CoconutCandy
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Felicia Remnant Continues to Bring Beneficial Rains to Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #85942 - Thu Aug 13 2009 08:19 PM

Well, the good news for Hawaii is that the remnant circulation of Ex-Hurricane Felicia, now an open wave, continues to bring beneficial rains to mainly Kauai and Oahu.

The trough has just departed Kauai, moving off slowly to the west, as shown here in an animated visible satellite loop of the Hawaiian Islands.



You can easily see the trough axis 'spinning' just west of Kauai, drawing up copious amounts of moisure-laden air from the deep tropics up and over Kauai and Oahu.

And also notice the large 'blob' of moisture just south of Oahu, coming onshore at this hour and causing heavy rains, primarily over the Koolau mountains to the north of Honolulu.

Flood advisories have been posted, but no flash flooding is occuring at the moment. Last night, there was Flash Flood Warnings over the Koolaus, with some spots picking up a *whopping 10 inches* or more, as estimated by the Doppler Radar based on Molokai.

The trend is for dryer and sunnier weather as we head into the weekend, with our blessed tradewinds pushing their way back into the Islands from the east.

Yay! It's been sooooooooo HOT and MUGGY these past few days. However! It was *really great* to have the much-needed rains for the agricultural areas on Oahu and Kauai, and folks didn't seem to mind the rain too much, as we are just *hugely revlieved* that we had no hurricane or tropical storm. Hawaii dodges the bullet yet again! Whew !!

And Diamond Head is going to be a beautiful GREEN again, which usually only happens during our typical winter 'wet season'.

However, there may be more trouble on the horizon, so to speak. There is the remnant of once TD-9E, which looks to be attempting a shot at regeneration, and is just about to cross into the Central Pacific Basin.



Sometimes a vigorous mid-level circulation remains long after after convection fizzles, due to confluent winds or an unfavorable thermodynamic environment, only to re-develop again when it finds itself in more favorable conditions which tend to foster cyclogenesis. So it seems to be the case today with Ex-TD-9E.

We'll see what the approaching convective max will do for this disturbance tonight. These systems can ramp up in a hurry, as we seen with Felicia recently, going from Disturbance to HURRICANE in about 18 hours! Can you say "explosive intensification"? (I'll re-check this to be sure.)

And Finally ... There is Tropical Storm 'GUILLERMO', soon to become a Hurricane, already displaying a large, partly cloud-filled eye off and on this afternoon, local basin time, on animated visible loops.



TC Guillermo is expected to track *straight* towards the Hawaiian Islands and will be in our 'neck of the woods' sometime mid-next week, but thankfully as a weakening tropical storm.



Maybe more rains? Maybe for Maui & the Big Island this time, which largely missed out on a good drenching from Felicia, as she tracked through the *Middle Islands*, so Maui and the Big Islands' rain totals were much less than what Kauai and Oahu thankfully received.

So it looks to be something of a replay of Felicia. We'll have to see how this one pans out. I'll open a new thread soon for these 2 potential trouble makers.

Until then, wishing you Aloha from Hawaii !!


Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Aug 13 2009 10:49 PM)


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