MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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90L is likely to become TD#3 today, and some of the long range models are interesting. It's the lounge category because these models tend to get wacky at long range. Anything you see here past 4 days or so probably will not happen, but it's interesting to note the trends from day to day on these.
It may get near the US around August 24th.
I'll do a model rundown here:
CMC -- Out 6 days, approaching Leeward Islands of the Caribbean.
GFDL - Approaching just to the north of the LeewardIslands.
GFS - Into Leeward Islands... Through Puerto Rico, clipping Hispaniola, through the Straights of Florida into the Gulf and into Louisiana. (Fantasyland at that far out)
Strength wise it may get larger, weaken somewhat and then fluctuate. If it gets in the Gulf all bets are off, if it stays east, then it'll likely run into more shear but still be fairly large.
At this point I would take the models with a huge grain of salt. Around 15N 50W is a good aim point to determine how likely the Leewards and Puerto Rico will see the storm. If it's south or just at that point, it'll be more likely for them to see something.
There are other indication that the ridge may weaken, which would open a hole for it to recurve. (EURO/HRWF) as well. So in short at that far out it is anyone's guess.
Otherwise there is a good week to 10 days to watch this system.
Into the Caribbean is also a possibility.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I agree with the grain of salt. I looked as and last night and was a bit shocked to see how deep that system is predicted to become in about 5-7 days time!! Nice convergence in the forcast tracks for this far out. I would imagine this will change when data from closer in becomes available. Some even show a pretty solid system following this one. Been nothing to cool the waters down so far, so anything is possible. Haven't been watching here much so far this season, but it looks like now is the time. Keep us informed!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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12Z now has 90L moving through the northeast Caribbean and then into the tip of S. Florida up along the western side of the state. It's not doing much except playing with the nerves at the moment. The consensus of all the models in the short term is pretty interesting though. Long term, I still don't buy it.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
12Z now has 90L moving through the northeast Caribbean and then into the tip of S. Florida up along the western side of the state. It's not doing much except playing with the nerves at the moment. The consensus of all the models in the short term is pretty interesting though. Long term, I still don't buy it.
Maybe it's just my eyes,but it looks to me like it has it going more up the east coast or middle of Florida.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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well, apparently, all the model plots are comfortable with this thing coming to florida long term. since this is best guesses, im going to give my best guess. cat 2 hurricane. impact on broward county nw through the west coast of florida and a shimmy of a recurve past the carolinas into the hurricane dumpster.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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is tow taking into the eastern Caribbean. Still much ado about nothing until 90L has formed solidly.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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yeah you have to admit though mike, it looks preety impressive at this point. im thinking its only a matter of a couple days before it becomes a cane. although thats a best guess i suppose it depends on that system that sheared 2.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Oh it's definitely impressive for now, I'm just not trusting the models currently.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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the long range models? i wouldnt either. i learned that mistake last season lol. i usually wait till its about 1200 miles from the east coast of florida before i start believing those models.
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
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I don't put much stock in those scary models this far out (that's not to say I don't look at them, of course), especially with 90L still in its formative stages. It certainly has the potential to make us nervous toward the latter part of next week, but so many conditions can change between now and then.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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thats true, overall, i think we are looking at our first cane. and i think thats whats sparking these models up. its fairly impressive at its current stage.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Well, ok....., i'll play. Though the limb that i'll crawl out on right now will remain a rather short 60hr.  one.
Overnight this evening ( Fri ), we'll see "ex-02" maintain its overall structure, and continue to fight off slowly ( and slightly decreasing ) easterly shear. Banding features to become a little more distinct. Tomorrow ( Sat. ) will see even less westerly displacement of convection, and getting close to reclassification to depression #2. With loss of sunlight, and perhaps waning diurnal convection...., will hold back from "pulling the trigger" and await first vis. satellite on Sunday a.m. Bursting pattern and lessening shear will lead to system being upgraded right to T.S. on Sunday.
Meanwhile 90L, which despite strong easterly shear, continues to organize and despite some dry air being entrained by its own large envelope system, will continue to organize slowly overnight. Tomorrow ( Sat. ), organization will be evident, but outside of cycles of convective bursting, most convection will be within banding features. ponders consideration to upgrade to depression #3 during the day, but holds off. During Sat. evening, maintained banded convection near the center along with surface ship reports reporting seagulls off the starboard bow - flying backwards. Though the 8:00pm T.W.O. just released, Ships report prompts late evening Special Tropical Advisory & upgrade 90L to Depression #3.
First visable satellite prompts immediate decision to upgrade both systems to Tropical Storm strength, however decision must first be made which name ( Ana or Bill ) to be tagged, to which storm. That, and given persistant 90L HWRF/GFDL intensity forecasts, which name would they prefer to retire given the choice.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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18Z is further south than the earlier one. Into the Caribbean and going over Hispaniola. This jives with the going further west too. 90L could wind up being one of those systems that keeps heading westward if the trend continues. I'll check again in two days to compare it.
Activity Behind 90L is interesting too.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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yeah mike, there are some models that show flare up of 2 other systems behind 90l isnt there?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Latest stalls the storm off the Southeast coast of Florida, is still unreliable that far out.
With Ana and 90L following a similar track with the models, we could have storm scares back to back in Florida. I doubt both would hit, but it's seems likely at least one of the two will. I just hope they remain weak and the El nino westerly shear comes to tear them up at some point.
The thought of a double hit on Florida is disturbing, they would be mere two-3 days apart if the worst case were to happen.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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All of sudden I have Bill Chill in Brevard. I would love to pick Clarks brain on this system. A shift to the left by 11pm or 5am tomorrow?????
(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 15 2009 07:08 PM)
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Johncn
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
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Just got a name....Bill...let's hope it doesn't live up to the major storm predictions.
My place is in Cape Canaveral, and I've just discovered this forum. Got done putting my boat in the Cape Marina inside storage today and discovered that Ana was not alone on the list of named storms so far this year.
Nice to know you guys are here. Does the board get pretty active during the season?
Johncn
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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yes we get active come this time of year. while this isnt an official source (it should be) everyone here gets together and grinds their skulls to figure out best guesses and formulate general opinions to help give everyone an idea of how things will be. its without the hype.
i noticed something though. that forecast from the previous advisory to this advisory shifted south to the keys. i wonder if thats going to become a normal trend for ana. and bill, i wonder if bill will follow the same path. while we should watch both closely its bill im concerned with. ana looks to be something similar to another fay perhaps. very small in size. a rain maker. ill be curious to see how bill shapes up. the intensity plots have been preety tight in the past couple of days for bill.
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Johncn
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
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Thanks for the reply.
I'm hoping that similarities to David (1979) are only superficial, as I'm not really all the knowledgeable about the forecasting models.
Regards,
Johncn
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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well the latest spaghetti plots for bill seem to do a 180 from what they were earlier today. same with ana.
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