Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

The Atlantic Basin continues to sleep, but there are some potential candidates for a wake-up call in a few days. Upper lows and the east coast trough have really compressed the Atlantic ridge and as a result, the basin is not what one would normally expect for early August with small jet streaks and areas of shear. SSTs are still sub-par in the far eastern Atlantic above about 12N and the compression has shoved the quite a bit to the south in the central north Atlantic. Interesting to note that in many previous years which had early activity, that early activity was often followed by a rather quiet August (the exception was 1995, but conditions were quite different in that year).

The Four Corners:
Extra-tropical low near 35.4N 45.1W at 12Z this Sunday morning is drifting to the east southeast and has developed convection east through southeast of the center. Not much chance for development,...but its there.

East coast trough (the former Invest 99L) continues to fire convection but shows no real organization. Has a possible weak mid-level center near 27.0N 74.4W at 12Z. Movement is to the west northwest at about 7 knots. Saturday at 18Z this feature was located at 26.0N 72.5W and movement at that time was to the northwest at 10 knots. Still a slim chance for some development in this area.

Active tropical wave with a focal point near 12.2N 67.5W at 12Z moving to the west at 12 knots. No evidence of circulation but excellent outflow to the east. System is about to encounter some southwesterly shear, however this may tend to nudge the system more to the northwest rather than diminish it. The wave became active yesterday in the eastern Caribbean Sea but lost most of its convection yesterday evening. It fired up again early this morning and may be a 'sleeper' in the four-corner scenario.

Invest 90L has maintained its low-level circulation center (barely, but its still there). At 12Z the center was located at 14.4N 50.6W and it was moving to the west northwest. System has been moving to the west northwest for the past 48 hours, although at a slower rate in the past 24 hours. The system is forecast to continue on this slow west northwest course for the remainder of the week. Convection is currently far removed to the north northwest, however, as long as the circulation center survives, development is certainly possible.

The Plus One:
A new active tropical wave has emerged from the west African coast - southeast of the Cape Verde Islands near 10N 20W. Currently embedded in the , but appears to have a weak circulation center - still way too early to tell if this one has a chance at development - like all of the waves of the past few weeks, this one also has a rough road ahead of it.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

Edited by John C (Mon Aug 04 2003 06:45 PM)

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