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Low Pressure east of the Caribbean Islands (93L) looking less impressive today, chances for development are dropping.
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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3455
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Posts [Re: danielw]
      #86714 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:48 PM

Please don't post the WHOLE bulletin or statement from Official sources when posting.
Edit the post down to a few paragraphs and post a link to the Bulletin you are quoting from.
It will save time on everyone's part.
Thanks


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Beach]
      #86715 - Tue Sep 01 2009 01:53 PM

Taking a quick look at the GFS 12Z 200mb forecast, it would seem plainly clear that the shear that 94L is undergoing, is to certainly lessen with time. In fact, upper level southerly flow seems to back off somewhat and as soon as 18 hours from when initialed. Energy from the upper low well north of Hispaniola is progged to basically be pulled northward and absorbed well north and into the retreating westerlies. Significant upper air pattern changes seem to occur, especially starting in the 56 hour range. Upper high "bubble" currently slightly over and eastward of 94L seems to move westward with time, and a more overall area of bridged ridging seems to ensue.

Have not seen any 12Z Euro upper air data from today, but given the relative near term GFS upper air forecast, along with the European's recent trends to show rising heights over the Western Atlantic and Eastern CONUS, lead me to believe that unless 94L gets shredded during the next 24 hours, eventual intensification would be a given. Though I would not expect significant improvement in 94L's overall structure, I would be somewhat surprised in its near term to see its total demise. Providing this system is capable of fairly consistent bursting of convection, than aside from whether or not recon will cause NHC to classify this as a depression ( I think it will ), more important will be "what" it might be in 72 hours.

2:00pm T.W.O. from NHC just in......

ABNT20 KNHC 011751
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 260
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR...MORE
LIKELY...A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH............

Edited by weathernet (Tue Sep 01 2009 01:58 PM)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: weathernet]
      #86716 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:25 PM

Qucik note, upon closer observation of current 1KM vis. satellite, it appears that a fairly well and tight LLC has in fact formed around 17N and 57W. Looks like convective tops are starting to "pop" right on the eastern side of this feature. Overall apparent LLC looks to be not moving, yet convective mid level continues to slide WNW and is becoming closer to this feature. Banding feature also now starting to pull moisture up and into the south side of this apparent LLC. I would perhaps expect a short term hop more WNW or NW over this evening hours should a somewhat better co-alignment be taking place.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: weathernet]
      #86717 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:25 PM

RECON data looks real close. I've seen NE and SSW windirections and SFMR surface wind speeds close to Tropical Storm force. But we'll have to wait and see if NHC pulls the CODE Green...

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #86718 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:28 PM

Quote:

RECON data looks real close. I've seen NE and SSW windirections and SFMR surface wind speeds close to Tropical Storm force. But we'll have to wait and see if NHC pulls the CODE Green...




Uh, I know I'm sick and my mind is not working right but *what* is CODE Green?

It looks like convection MAY be trying to wrap around the developing LLC. It's going to be very interesting to see if they call it a TD or a storm.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #86719 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:34 PM

Code Green is the next level.... A numbered or named system. Hypothetical/ Pessimistic/ Optimistic color that I came up with.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #86720 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:43 PM

I think of Code Green as "all clear" LOL

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #86721 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:47 PM

That would depend on whether you are ahead or behind the storm I guess.
I don't know what other colors would be above yellow, orange and red... infrared?
Code Blue or Black. But I think we've hashed it enough.

I just noticed the wording in the 2 PM Trop. Outlook from NHC.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR... MORE LIKELY... A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 01 2009 02:50 PM)


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 61
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: weathernet]
      #86722 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:51 PM

Quote:

Qucik note, upon closer observation of current 1KM vis. satellite, it appears that a fairly well and tight LLC has in fact formed around 17N and 57W. Looks like convective tops are starting to "pop" right on the eastern side of this feature. Overall apparent LLC looks to be not moving, yet convective mid level continues to slide WNW and is becoming closer to this feature. Banding feature also now starting to pull moisture up and into the south side of this apparent LLC. I would perhaps expect a short term hop more WNW or NW over this evening hours should a somewhat better co-alignment be taking place.




I concur. The surface vortex was moving steadily wnw/nw all morning, but the convection has given it a little tug, leading to a north wobble. Any temporary halting of the vort's west movement can only improve the system's chance of development as it gives the shear zone time to back off a bit.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #86723 - Tue Sep 01 2009 02:56 PM

Quote:

That would depend on whether you are ahead or behind the storm I guess.
I don't know what other colors would be above yellow, orange and red... infrared?
Code Blue or Black. But I think we've hashed it enough.

I just noticed the wording in the 2 PM Trop. Outlook from NHC.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR... MORE LIKELY... A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.




Yep, basically they are waiting for recon confirmation is the way I read it. Before putting up a tropical storm warning for Erika, they want to confirm the existence of Erika.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3455
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Recon [Re: Hugh]
      #86724 - Tue Sep 01 2009 03:29 PM

Bet's are off it's still 50-50 on whether 94L attains TD5 or Tropical Storm Erika status.
As of 1907Z lowest filght level pressure 1007.0mb or (~29.74 inHg) maximum flight level wind speed so far is 49kts (~56.3mph) and the maximum SFMR estimated surface windspeed is 42kts (~48.3mph).


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Hugh]
      #86725 - Tue Sep 01 2009 03:31 PM Attachment (184 downloads)

Current recon has been flying on the west side of convection... they looked to have hit a area that could of been a the old level center... on the WSW side of convection... current flight path is headed NE into convection.. where tropical storm/gale force winds are been recored... see attached

one possible center near "16.8333N 57.2833W"

**note this is a low level invest mission... to find a "low".. if there is one... current flight level should have them less than 5 kft... as i wrote this... they turned around and are heading WSW now... so it appears the low center is near the above lat/long. pressure around 1007mb.. very weak and broad... will see what they keep finding.. do note... the highest winds are well to the NE of center

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 01 2009 03:34 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #86726 - Tue Sep 01 2009 03:58 PM

The most recent SHIPS guidance for 94L was initialized with an intensity of 45 kts, so this will be a Tropical Storm if it is determined to be a tropical cyclone:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR

This system could potentially affect the U.S. down the road, but it is going to have a hard time making it that far west without encountering quite a bit of shear.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2267
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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #86727 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:13 PM

As noted, NRL now lists the Invest at 45 knots and 1007MB. For site Users, this doesn't necessarily mean a TS - it just means that this was the initialization data used for model input.

From the NHC Glossary for Tropical Cyclone: "A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center."

I guess that the key word is 'organized' (which is not further defined). Even as a potential TD, the system is going to be problematic both for intensity and forecast track because of the strong southwesterly shear ahead of the system. Going to TD status doesn't solve those problems but at least the starting point will be defined (and perhaps even redefined at some future point). El Nino years often produce 'difficult' systems.
Cheers,
ED


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86728 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:15 PM

Storm Location
Date: Sep. 1, 2009 18Z
Coordinates: 16.8N 57.2W
Wind Speed: 45 knots
MSLP: 1007 mb

the 18Z runs have TS... will wait to see

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #86729 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:31 PM

A special tropical suite model run by NHC indicated 18Z coordinates of 17.0N 57.0W for Tropical Cyclone Erika - so at least they are thinking about it.
ED


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Storm Hunter
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86730 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:37 PM

is it me... or did they do two/three Tropical suit runs... on 94L ?



--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 01 2009 04:38 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86731 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:38 PM

80% chance they will classify this...TD or TS...circulation is there..but the area is small in the NW winds dept...but still LLC is there...and winds are over 35kts.... so probably a TS.... they are probably just waiting on extra data before the plane leaves....probably come out within the next few minutes!

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 811
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Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86732 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:42 PM

Convection is getting closer to that location - becoming more vertically stacked? We'll see if NHC pulls the trigger at 5 PM ET or waits a bit longer. (17.0N; 57.0W)

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0

Edited by MichaelA (Tue Sep 01 2009 04:45 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: HPC - Carribbean Forecast Discussion [Re: MichaelA]
      #86733 - Tue Sep 01 2009 04:49 PM

TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED...ALBEIT...BROAD
CIRCULATION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF
ABOUT 45 KT. THUS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 01 2009 04:49 PM)


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