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Archives >> 2009 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86858 - Thu Sep 03 2009 06:00 PM

Quote:

How much does historiography play into the models? The history of all early Sep trop storms in the vicinity of Erika is a mixed bag in terms of eventual path http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200906_climo.html#a_topad,
but the track record of those that did becomes canes is impressive. From the graph, Hortense, Ella, Jeanne, Baker, and Enda all became major storms and Gert was a Cat 2. Soooo, if E survives, there is strong potential for intensification.




The dynamical models do not contain any knowledge of historical storms and their evolutions. These include the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, ECMWF, and so on.

The statistical and dynamical-statistical models, however, have varying degrees or forms of climatological information in them. Some are solely based off of climatology (CLIPER) whereas others are statistical regression models based upon observed conditions and what has happened in the past with similar storms.

All in all, though, there's no inherent knowledge of other September storms near that area in most of the reliable guidance. Information about the current atmosphere and ocean play a primary role in forecasting.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 03/20Z - Tropical Depression Erika? [Re: Clark]
      #86859 - Thu Sep 03 2009 06:32 PM

More suprises. NHC track which usually is a blend of all models seems to be leaning toward the tropical suite (the Bams). With depression reforming over dominican republic. Vortices racing ahead of what appears to be stationary mid level circulation supported by what? A fluid moving within a fluid. I give up, but would not suggest to stop watching Erika. There is obviously a lot of energy
here and the ocean has to exhaust heat. I think I'll change my screen name to Erika after this post. Keep an eye on wave off of Africa.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Thu Sep 03 2009 06:34 PM)


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 260
Loc: Southeast, FL
Martinique radar [Re: craigm]
      #86860 - Thu Sep 03 2009 07:03 PM

Look at the Martinique radar you can clearly sea the low level go bye followed bye the eventual evolution of the broad Mid level to east or low level or what ever you want to call the second center.



Martinique Radar..
....
..

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.
.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Martinique radar [Re: Robert]
      #86861 - Thu Sep 03 2009 07:08 PM

There's been a impressive little burst of convection to come out around the center of Erika recently. If this sticks around it may stay alive for a bit longer.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 246
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Martinique radar [Re: MikeC]
      #86862 - Thu Sep 03 2009 08:02 PM

She's like the energizer Bunny.
Anyway let me throw these intensity trend estimates out there from CIMSS
Neutral right now to favorable in 24 hrs. They bring intensity back to tropical storm strength before crossing the islands.

06L
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA 18:00UTC 03September2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 17:05:35 N
Longitude : 64:04:10 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 920.5 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 88.5 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.9 m/s
Direction : 252.5 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differentia
Forecast Interval : 6hr N 12hr N 18hr N 24hr F


Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

- Current shear charts for the ATLANTIC BASIN can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...zoom=&time=
- Additional information about this product can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/misc/winds/info.winds.shr.html
- Contact : Chris Velden (chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu)
CIMSS Internal Code : Basin - atlantic Storm - ERIKA

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Thu Sep 03 2009 08:03 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
E Caribbean [Re: craigm]
      #86864 - Fri Sep 04 2009 05:00 AM

Some of the remnants of TD Erika are in the Eastern Caribbean this morning. Post satellite eclipse IR enhanced shot below. Very interesting. Labor Day Weekend Bear Watch



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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 267
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: E Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #86865 - Fri Sep 04 2009 05:58 AM

Definitely an impressive burst of convection as of this writing. Also. do I see a circulation just south of PR on this radar image?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=jua&product=N0Z&loop=no

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: E Caribbean [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #86866 - Fri Sep 04 2009 06:36 AM

Although its weak, sure looks like it to me. Satellite suggests a center near 17N 66W at 04/10Z and the radar location seems to indicate the same area. Movement slowly to the west southwest. Since the height of the radar beam would be at a few thousand feet above the surface at that distance, it will be interesting to see what the first visible satellite images look like.
Cloud streamers indicate that the windshear has become more westerly and has declined a bit. Looks like Erika is not going to quietly go away - at least not in the near-term.
ED


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 267
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: E Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86867 - Fri Sep 04 2009 06:43 AM

Also interesting on the IR RGB loop that there appears to be a circulation at 17.5N 61.5W. It looks mid or low level.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2330
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: E Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86868 - Fri Sep 04 2009 07:18 AM

First visible images don't show anything too definitive - possible remnant low near 17N 66.5W at 04/11Z. The weak low is riding within a small zone of lighter windshear, however, by Saturday evening the shear ahead of the system is forecast to increase to 40 knots in an area extending from southwest of Cuba northeastward into the southern and central Bahamas. Whats left of the former Erika is likely to be a slow mover and face a constant struggle with strong windshear to its northwest.
ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1213
Loc: South Florida
Re: E Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #86869 - Fri Sep 04 2009 09:27 AM

It's been a season of struggle for the tropical systems.

Cannot believe she is so red and has a look of a spin considering everything she is up against, and models still play with her...which means they recognize her as a system.

Africa went from "vigorous" to "still has a chance" and the Gulf has been swirling with energy from fronts diving and well...not that favorable anywhere. Though if the fronts stagnate a bit something could form I suppose.

Was trying to figure if Erika redeveloped south of Haiti where she would end up but unless she goes due west...she is going to hit another wall of tough winds.

I can see the spin but I just can't see where should would go if she could get her tropical legs back...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: E Caribbean [Re: LoisCane]
      #86871 - Fri Sep 04 2009 11:05 AM

Sure has been a struggle for Tropical Systems this year! For myself, the onset of El Nino was an impact that I did not foresee as early as the beginning of September. Now looking at the GFS 0600Z run ( 200mb ), I'm playing the loop out to 384 hours in amazement, and trying to recall when I remember seeing as overall hostile upper air conditions, that now prevail.

As for Erika ( or "once" Erika, but maybe almost Erika again, but...), I'm seeing what looks to be the original or old vorticity which rapidly spun to the WSW and into the Caribbean, appear to be developing once again. This feature better enjoy whatever rotation it can muster, as some pretty nasty upper level winds are practically at its doorstep! Meanwhile, nearly all the models want to develop yet another one of Erika's features into yet a newly developing reincarnation of itself, deepen and then ( hopefully ) harmlessly change neighborhoods, where the upper air is just a bit more palpable, while on a more or less NNW course and eventually simply out to sea. This new feature somehow develops just north of the Greater Antilles, and though I could'nt even imagine "where" or how that is supposed to happen......., sure enough after looking at satellite visible loops this a.m., one could nearly allow their imagination to take the remnant alto-cumulus and see some broad weak rotation. Any other year and especially any other system, I'd say NO WAY, yet given the "Many Faces Of Erika" ( movie release coming in '10 ), I'd believe just about anything.

Probably no big deal should this occur, but you gotta believe the folks at NHC, couldn't be happier if this current feature south of Puerto Rico would just die and go away. Could you imagine? "Son of Erika" forms..., or wait a minute? Perhaps "it" is Erika, but then what do you call that thing spinning in the E. Central Caribbean? All mute points, so long as both go away and bother no one. For us and the general public, perhaps the beginning of a premature ending, of an odd hurricane season. However, and not unlike a pesky gnat that just won't go away, for the good folks at NHC, possibly just one more way that Erika would stay with them for weeks longer - if only due to the drudgery of factual debate on historical documentation of which storm was Erika and when it formed, died, was reborn, and on, and on, and on and on.....


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: E Caribbean [Re: weathernet]
      #86875 - Fri Sep 04 2009 12:13 PM

All of the models are still showing some kind of regeneration in the Bahamas and East of Florida in a few days, so I still wouldn't give up on the remains of Erika. Looks like the severe shear is from Hispaniola southward with little shear over the Bahamas. If the remnants drift due West, then there is little chance of development, but if the remaining energy moves NW into the Bahamas, then some redevelopment could be possible.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2968
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: E Caribbean [Re: LoisCane]
      #86876 - Fri Sep 04 2009 02:34 PM

95L is now being tracked in the Eastern Atlantic, 30-50% chance of development in the next 48 hours, but there doesn't seem to be that great of model initialization on it yet.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 837
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: E Caribbean [Re: MichaelA]
      #86878 - Fri Sep 04 2009 03:57 PM

regeneration looks bleak based on the amount of damage being reaped upon the remenants of Erika by shear.

--------------------
doug


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 260
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: E Caribbean [Re: doug]
      #86879 - Fri Sep 04 2009 05:07 PM

What do you all think of this???



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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 253
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
RIP - Erika [Re: Clark]
      #86880 - Fri Sep 04 2009 05:08 PM

She still had some pretty impressive convection up until a couple of hours ago. She looks WAY past and sort of possible regeneration now. Not even an impressive wave. Seems like the shear just held her in place until she was torn apart. I suppose there is always a chance of something reforming, but there won't be anything left by midnight. [turns attention to the eastern Atlantic again]

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 819
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: RIP - Erika [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #86881 - Fri Sep 04 2009 05:54 PM

Yep. What remains of the mid-level circulation is now being sheared off.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 7/6/2


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