2PM EDT Update 6 October 2009
Ex Grace has moved south of Ireland as is quickly approaching the coast of Wales in the United Kingdom.
91L has struggled to develop, but continues. Chances of development for that remain around 30%
Original Updates
An upper level low well west of Portugal is rapidly acquiring tropical characteristics with well defined banding and an eye or eye-like feature. The cyclone was located near 40.5N 21.5W at 05/00Z - moving to the northeast at about 25 knots. At 05/01Z the eye-like feature was not as well defined. Although southerly windshear is increasing, since this is a hybrid system it should be able to maintain its tropical identity for a short period of time with probable movement to the north northeast and northeast. No model data is currently available on this system, however, advisories may be initiated at 05/03Z.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook was issued by for this system:
"SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
AZORES
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR ...ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS."
ADDED: System was upgraded to Tropical Storm Grace at 05/0300Z with winds of 65mph and pressure at 990mb moving northeast at 25mph.
ED
As for 91L, east of the Caribbean islands, the current conditions in the area suggest it will continue moving more westward. Right now it has a 30% of development, and is hard to say if it will ever develop. If it does it will be important to watch. Even if it does develop it may weaken later. The October set up is much different than August, and if anything does come of it, it will have to be watched.
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
Grace Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Grace
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Grace
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Grace Clark Evans Track Plot of Grace
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Grace
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Grace -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Note: graphic currently is an older 91L and not the current.
Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of 91L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Edited by MikeC (Tue Oct 06 2009 01:41 PM)
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
