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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Henri Waning
      #86997 - Tue Oct 06 2009 03:57 PM

9:43 AM 8 October 2009
Tropical Depression Henri is likely to fall back into an open low tonight or tomorrow, and the wave East of the Caribbean is very disorganized and likely not to develop.

Otherwise, there are indications that a MJO push for mid October will give likely the last period of likely high activity this season next week into the one after that, so conditions will be slightly more favorable then.


Original Update
91L has blossomed this afternoon and has become Tropical Storm Henri. Advisories will begin at 5PM.

Early model runs suggest it may miss the Leewards to the north, but those in the area should watch.

Henri will have a good deal of shear and poor conditions to look forward to in the future, which may keep it from lasting too long. Keep watch on it, though.


More to come soon....

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations
92L Event Related Links
AL922009mltsth.gif
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Henri Event Related Links
AL102009mltsth.gif
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Henri
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Henri (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Henri (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Henri
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Henri -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Henri Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #86998 - Tue Oct 06 2009 07:46 PM

Last few days not sure about NHC, now with them calling Henri a TS with only a T1.0 rating. lately it seems that they just want to make their forecast. .

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Tropical Storm Henri Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: Old Sailor]
      #87000 - Wed Oct 07 2009 10:47 AM

Odd feature...but the NHC is basing the call on the distinct LLC west of the envelope of convection. That big area does present an impressive satellite image and on WV appears to have a seperate mid/upper level circulation with it. on the western edge and to the SE of the visible LLC. That may also be seen in the visible view as well. Bad weather coming to the islands. However it is running into some serious head winds shorly thereafter. I agree with the forecast./prognosis.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Wed Oct 07 2009 10:51 AM)

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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Tropical Storm Henri Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: doug]
      #87005 - Thu Oct 08 2009 07:42 AM

A very nice LLC almost directly south of Henri. Could we have another player? The circulation looks better than Henri's has ever looked.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Tropical Storm Henri Forms East of the Caribbean [Re: saltysenior]
      #87019 - Sat Oct 17 2009 04:20 PM

Yes, I am waiting for such a statement. And just when they do, today's 12Z European will be correct. If you didn't see it, it shows a major cane coming into SW Florida from the SW Caribbean. This is the first time I've seen it develop something in this area in 2009. Second run in a row. Could this be the swan song for 2009???

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