CoconutCandy
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(Original Post Title: Unnamed Tropical Storm Upgraded to 35 Kts. - Major Philippines Typhoon Possible)
Yet another in a long series of tropical cyclones has formed in the same general area, ESE of Guam and the Marianas, that spawned the likes of CHOI-WAN, PARMA, and MELOR.
>> NOTE: (See the last post, below for latest updates on storm developments.)
Just upgraded to 35 Kts., and though not yet named, this tropical storm is passing south of Guam, all the while slowly intensifying.
Even now, you can begin to see the pronounced cyclonic rotation of the inner core convection, still not well organized, on the long-range doppler radar out of Guam.
For those wishing to see a real-time animated loop of 22W passing south of Guam, click ...
Long Range Reflectivity Doppler Radar from Guam
Unfortunately, it looks as though this small tropical storm will steadily strengthen as it passes west of Guam and will be at Typhoon (Hurricane) strength in a few days, and is then expected to further intensify into a 100 Knot (115 mph, CAT 3) Major Typhoon as it tracks steadily towards an already much-beseiged Luzon, the northern-most island of the Philippines where Manila is located.
I'm sure many readers are already familiar with the devastation wrought by numerous tropical cyclones over these past few weeks, including a weak, 35 Kt. tropical storm (KETSANA) that brought the worst flooding to the Metro Manila area in 43 years and claimed nearly 300 lives on Luzon.
More recently, Typhoon PARMA, after meandering under weak steering currents and crossing over the island an amazing 3 times, greatly componded an already crisis suituation on Luzon, and has proved even more fatal than Ketsana, laying waste vast agricultural areas due to storm surge and flooding, and entirely wiping out mountainous villages with massive land and mudslides.
Certainly, the LAST thing the Philippines need right now is yet *another* Major Typhoon tracking towards them, with models taking the cyclone across Luzon in about 6 days. Hopefully, the typhoon will begin to recurve more north than currently forecast before it resumes a more westerly course, possibly avoiding a landfall and tracking just north Luzon.
Nonetheless, it seems the cyclone is likely to adversely effect the Island with strong winds and dropping torrential rains on already saturated ground, regardless of its' exact track. And unfortunately that forebodes continuing disaster compounded on top of all the damage wrought by the many tropical cyclones they've already endured over this past month or so.
And finally (for now) here are some links to a color enhanced, animated IR satellite loop ...
Western Pacific Animated Color IR Loop
... and the NWS Guam Homepage for all the Watches, Warnings, Local Statements, Special Weather Statements and Tropical Storm / Typhoon Advisories ...
NWS Guam Homepage
Will be posting more as time allows ...
Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Oct 15 2009 07:35 PM)
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vpbob21
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Loc: Ohio
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Yes, I have to agree, 22W has the look of a system that could be a very dangerous typhoon somewhere east of the Philippines in a few days. Hopefully the trough that the latest discussion indicates will tug 22W a little to the north at about the 48 hour mark is able to pull it far enough to miss the islands. Hard to say, though. I have to think if it stays weak for another day or two it will probably stay more to the south, and that would be bad news. Still, it's probably 5-6 days out, so a lot can happen.
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CoconutCandy
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An unnamed tropical storm of 40 Kt. intensity, currently referred to as '22W.TWENTYTWO' on the Website, continues to organize in the very warm water WSW of Guam and the Marianas.
NRL Website for Tropical Cyclone '22W'
(You may notice Guam and the Marianas half way towards the upper right corner.)
The oceanic heat content is quite large in this vast expanse of ocean, and along with a very favorable upper level outflow pattern expected to develop, this as-yet-unnamed tropical cyclone is expected to 'take advantage' of all that potential heat energy, resulting in a Major Cat 4 Typhoon in a few days time, all the while on an apparent rendezvous with an already much besieged Northern Philippines.
(You may notice the Island of Luzon, in green, just to the left of the largest blue circle.)
Current prognostic reasoning indicates a slight weakening of the subtropical ridge to it's north in a few days that will help turn the by-then-typhoon towards the NNW allowing it gain a little more latitude, but then unfortunately, is then forecast to resume a largely westerly track towards a probable landfall squarely over Luzon, having likely strengthened by that time to a Major Cat 3 or Cat 4 Typhoon , or even possibly, (perish the thought!) Cat 5 Intensity.
The following is a paraphrased version of the latest prognostic reasoning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), now based in Pearl Harbor, on what is expected from 22W over the next 5 days.
Quote:
" ... 22W is expected to continue tracking along the steering ridge ... environmental conditions will become even more favorable for development with increasing poleward outflow as the to the northeast moves westward and closer to the system and vertical wind sheer remains light.
Additionally, along 22W's track, SST's will further increase after about a day and a half. Beginning before the 3rd day, a weak mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest will cause a weakness in the steering ridge and jog the system more poleward in it's track.
After day 3, 22W will resume a more westward trajectory as a secondary and deeper ridge north of Taiwan will assume steering of the system. The environmental conditions will remain favorable for continued development, and the system is expected to exceed 100-knot sustained wind speed (or greater) by day 5.
It remains curious to me why the hasn't named the storm yet, despite a 40 Kt. intensity for many hours now. Surely there must be a list of storm names at the ready.
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Quick update as of 9 AM Hawaii time, 3 PM Florida, October 15th, 2009:
22W Continues to slowly organize and intensify and now has 45 Knot (50 mph) sustained winds. Curiously, still no name has been assigned as yet, but it appears that "LUPIT" is next on the list, should they decide to go with that one.
The latest advisory now has 'Lupit' attaining 125 Knot strength (145 mph) as it draws ever closer to Luzon in about 5 days time, and considering the expected strengthening trend, it seems that 'Super Typhoon' status might be conferred before a possible landfall over Luzon.
The wee bit of good news, if you might call it that, is that the latest forecast track is slightly to the right of the previous few, so it remains to be seen whether 'Lupit' will make landfall or not, but it is still likely to have a major impact over Luzon, nonetheless, as the effects of tropical cyclones are far reaching, especially their torrential rains and associated flash flooding.
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More storm updates, graphics and analysis forthcoming as time permits ...
Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Oct 15 2009 03:38 PM)
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CoconutCandy
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Tropical Storm 'Lupit' has steadily strengthened over very warm waters in excess of 30C in the vast oceanic expanse WSW of the Mariana Islands, and has now crossed the threshold for it to become classified as a typhoon.
The following animated visible satellite loop taken just before sunset, local basin time, clearly portrays an increasingly well organized cyclone, with a nascent, ragged-looking, partially cloud-filled eye taking shape at 14N and 136E.
You may also notice from this visible loop that 'Lupit' has jogged a bit to the NW and has gained about a degree of latitude (60 miles) since the animated visible loop presented in an earlier post, as it proceeds generally to the WNW, with some wobble seemingly apparent from time to time.
However a recent polar orbiting, passive-microwave imaging satellite is depicting a considerably more organized system since the visible loop was taken earlier in the day.
Here you can clearly see an inner, clear, eye-like feature surrounded by inner-core convection looking more and more like a fusing eyewall structure, surrounded by many far-flung concentric spiral banding structures, quickly evolving in the apparently rapidly expanding tropical-storm-force wind field.
From the latest Advisory #10 Prognostic Reasoning ...
Quote:
"... TROPICAL STORM LUPIT ... CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN ... ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IMPROVING OVERALL SYMMETRY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH. THESE DYNAMICS ARE SUPPRESSING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM.
LUPIT WILL GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BUT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ... THEN, AFTER 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE AS IT VEERS POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THIS STAIR-STEP MOVEMENT WILL BE MOMENTARY AND LUPIT WILL RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES (AND) IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT."
There is currently some spread in the numerical model guidance with regard to 'Lupit's forecast track over the next 5 days, depending largely on amount 'poleward jog' induced by the aforementioned mid-latitude trough around about 36 hours from now. Some models have 'Lupit' recurving towards Japan, while others still have it on track towards an eventual landfall in the extreme NE Philippines, while peaking in intensity as a high-end Cat 4 with sustained winds of 125 Kts., or 145 mph.
It will be interesting to see how all this plays out, and hopefully the Philippines will be largely spared a direct impact (thought flooding rains over mountainous terrain still seems quite likely), while southern Japan in that case would become more at risk, should 'Lupit' track to the right of it's currently forecast path from the .
Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri Oct 16 2009 08:32 AM)
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ohio
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It is unfortunately looking very bad for northern Luzon in the Philippines. Typhoon Lupit is about 315 miles ENE of the NE tip of Luzon, and moving WSW at 9 kts. A couple days ago Lupit got tugged to the north by a trough passing to its north, and even moved NE for a time. But the ridge has built back in to the north and has turned Lupit back toward the Philippines.
The latest discussions from indicate much uncertainty about the future track of Lupit. The forecast had been (up until about 12 hours ago) for Lupit to continue WSW, passing near or over northern Luzon then continuing into the South China Sea. Recently however, a few models (most notably the ) are forecasting Lupit to slow down and then recurve NE just before reaching Luzon. The official forecast maintains the WSW movement but slows the storm down to less than 5 kts. as it crosses the island. This would certainly be a disastrous situation should it occur. Hopefully the may prove to be correct and the storm recurve away without causing too much in the way of flooding.
One bit of good news is that Lupit has "weakened" to just an 80 kt. typhoon, down from the 135 kt. supertyphoon it was several days ago. The storm ingested some dry air and went through an eywall replacement cycle which caused the weakening. It may regain a little strength over the next day or so but probably only to category 2 strength.
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