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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Ida Lounge, What will happen?
      #87048 - Tue Nov 03 2009 04:36 PM

The system in the western Caribbean (97L) is needing slightly deeper convection, but otherwise seems on its way to developing. The current idea is that it will remain stationary or move very slowly at least in the initial run. It may go over Central America or stay more offshore potentially affecting the Yucatan or perhaps the Southeast.

This is where you can suggest what may happen, make a guess (with some reason behind it) or otherwise discuss
the models and possibilities with the system.

update: at 11 AM on the 4th, it was upgraded to a Tropical Depression

Update#2: at 3PM Recon showed what is very likely Ida, along with NRL updates


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MichaelA
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87054 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:58 AM

Looking at the satellite presentation this AM, I would not be surprised if this afternoon's recon finds a strong TD or minimal TS as long as the convection remains as strong as it seems to be. Until something definitive is determined, the model runs will be pretty unreliable. Something to watch, for sure.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87058 - Wed Nov 04 2009 11:57 AM

Long range models for TD#11 take it east or over the Yucatan into the Southwest Gulf. AKA GFS.

After that it may meander in the Gulf a bit too, great uncertainty in the forecast with a slow moving system, assuming it survives the cross over Nicaragua and Honduras.


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Marknole
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Posts: 44
Loc: Wacissa, FL 30.42N 83.95W
Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87059 - Wed Nov 04 2009 12:41 PM

One question, then a semi-educated guess.

I'm sure that SST's where TD #11 is currently located are supportive of development, but what about the SW GOM? Since we are looking at a system of questionable strength and organization when and if it re-emerges (early next week), there would likely be a digging trof that would shear and shred the circulation. After that, some areas would get bonus rainfall with the front that absorbs the remnants.

That being said, Tallahassee's last hurricane hit in November, (1985 - Kate), and tore this (inland) area up. Lots of big trees and branches in the State Capital...


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MichaelA
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Re: 97 Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MichaelA]
      #87066 - Wed Nov 04 2009 04:04 PM

Well, recon found a strong TS. Ida it is!

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87071 - Wed Nov 04 2009 06:34 PM

The 18Z GFDL. is moving closer to Cuba in the longer term, which is more usual for these type of storms, either they crash into Central America and die, or skirt along the coast and make it east of the Yucatan, a bit weaker. If it stays on the eastern edge of Honduras then it will pass along more flat terrain, west into Honduras gets into some fairly rugged mountains, which would tear up the storm.

The GFDL here somehow keeps it offshore, and s a bit nuts with intensity (on the high side), so I'm not sure I'd take much stock on this run.



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rgd
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87076 - Wed Nov 04 2009 07:21 PM

GFDL always does that it seems with the STR of a storm why no idea but it seems to over do there ppower.

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WeatherNut
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87082 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:17 PM

My forecast is that this site gets a whole lot more hits by the time Sunday comes round

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: MikeC]
      #87085 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:44 PM

I think the GFDL intensity is very believable if the models premise that it remains over water the entire time plays out. That said, its seems unlikely that it wont landfall to some degree in Nicaragua . I dont think it will be as much as forecast though

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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CoconutCandy
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Ida's Tantalizing Trek [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87086 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:17 PM

Quote:

My forecast is that this site gets a whole lot more hits by the time Sunday comes round



Hey, now there's a forecast that sounds more like a promise!

Yes, it should be a very interesting weekend should 'Ida' decide to not trek inland and fizzle out, which seems to be less likely with each model run and official advisory issued.

..


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rgd
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Re: Ida Lounge, What will happen? [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87087 - Wed Nov 04 2009 10:54 PM

seems like that is what people want more then anything

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berrywr
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Ida & Future Trek & Wind Shear [Re: WeatherNut]
      #87090 - Thu Nov 05 2009 05:05 AM

It is premature to think that Ida will be tropical and deep enough vertically to survive into what currently is a very hostile upper environment other than immediately over the storm. That said, there has been considerable discussion as to the evolution of the old dying frontal remains in the extreme SW Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche into becoming a subtropical or hybrid system later this week. It is highly doubtful a pure tropical system will evolve, however a subtropical system is more likely to be the result given the environment later in the week and where upper level features are progged to be. In that event, it is possible an approach to a US landfall along the Gulf of Mexico is possible.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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TampaDon
Registered User


Reged: Tue
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Re: Hurricane Ida Upgraded Just Before Landfall [Re: MikeC]
      #87101 - Thu Nov 05 2009 12:22 PM

Not sure which model they use to develop this forecast, but play out the wave height loop. Projecting 15' waves in the Central Gulf at about Tampa latitude mid next week. Wind vectors indicate a center of circulation driving the waves. I watch this site for deciding whether to fish the gulf or not and thought it would be interesting. On their hurricane page, the indicate that they use the GFDL wind table so that may be the underlying model for this projection.

http://www.swellinfo.com/surf-forecast/clearwater-florida.html

TD


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TampaDon
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87108 - Thu Nov 05 2009 02:49 PM

No wishcasting here, just posting up some interesting info. Lived in Fl all my life and know the unpredictability of these storms all too well. My post said Central GOM at about Tampa lattitude, not a Tampa landfall.

TD


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: TampaDon]
      #87112 - Thu Nov 05 2009 04:51 PM

Ida continues to need to be watched even up here, although conditions further north are much more hostile, it has a window to get stronger once it is back over water before hitting poorer conditions. It could bring more rainfall to the central or more likely eastern Gulf somewhere.

If it does make it to the Gulf, conditions will likely be very hostile for the system which may split it up vertically like so many other storms this season.

Ida is worth watching for this reason.


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87114 - Thu Nov 05 2009 05:23 PM

Definitely keeping an eye on Ida. The NHC discussion at 4:00 PM EST seems to be hedging a bit that Ida may dissipate over Central America, particularly if the circulation remains over land rather than moving more Northward back over open water. The time over land and the high shear environment just to the storm's north could well be its death.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MichaelA]
      #87122 - Fri Nov 06 2009 10:46 AM

If Ida restrengthens some and makes it into the Gulf (Around Monday) and converts over to an extratropical system, it still may be somewhat nasty and cause some coastal Flooding along the gulf. Ie, a pretty nasty day along the west coast of Florida.

How much it gets torn up depends on the Cold front approaching next week. If the front slows down or stalls out before that, it would give Ida more time to maintain itself. It's just if it's a tropical storm, or extra/sub tropical at the time.

The appearance of Ida Tues-Wed will probably be elongated southwest to northwest with it likely being fairly rainy cloudy and somewhat windy in Florida then. Nothing too dangerous except maybe some light coastal flooding.

The center of Ida could still stall and get blown apart or away either, so that's why this statement is in the lounge.


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Zosia
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87124 - Fri Nov 06 2009 11:07 AM

Quote:

If Ida restrengthens some and makes it into the Gulf (Around Monday) and converts over to an extratropical system, it still may be somewhat nasty and cause some coastal Flooding along the gulf. Ie, a pretty nasty day along the west coast of Florida.

How much it gets torn up depends on the Cold front approaching next week. If the front slows down or stalls out before that, it would give Ida more time to maintain itself. It's just if it's a tropical storm, or extra/sub tropical at the time.

The appearance of Ida Tues-Wed will probably be elongated southwest to northwest with it likely being fairly rainy cloudy and somewhat windy in Florida then. Nothing too dangerous except maybe some light coastal flooding.

The center of Ida could still stall and get blown apart or away either, so that's why this statement is in the lounge.





Hi!
I'm writing from Italy. In 10 days time I'll be in Miami: do I have to worry about this friendly Ida visiting Miami coast? What do you think? Will it be a danger over there, is it suggestable to avoid coming? Thanks for reading. Sofia


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Rasvar
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: Zosia]
      #87125 - Fri Nov 06 2009 11:12 AM

10 days from now, it seems likely that Ida will be ancient history. No need to change your trip. When all is said and done, for Florida, I think Ida will end up being a breezy rainmaker. At the worst, some broken tree limbs and power outages if it even holds together enough to strike land.

--------------------
Jim


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Ida [Re: MikeC]
      #87126 - Fri Nov 06 2009 11:31 AM

Tropical or extratropical, it has the potential of being dangerous and damaging. Evokes memories of the "no name" storm several years ago. It caused a lot of damage from wind and storm surge on the Florida West coast.

March, 1993

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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