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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell

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spinup
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 25
5-day wind shear analysis
      #87128 - Fri Nov 06 2009 12:04 PM

The NHC is currently forecasting that Ida will survive it's passage into and through the GOM (to somewhere), but that wind shear will seriously inhibit significant development. Can someone please provide relevant links to long-term forecast wind shear maps? Thank you.
Spinup

(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Nov 06 2009 05:49 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 5-day wind shear analysis [Re: spinup]
      #87138 - Fri Nov 06 2009 05:46 PM

I'm not sure that a 5-day wind shear chart exists. Long range wind shear is not a very reliable calculation. Unisys does have one that goes out to 48 hours:

48hr Wind Shear

Note that the parameter is in meters per second - double the value for an approximation in mph.

Cheers,
ED


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 355
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: 5-day wind shear analysis [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87139 - Fri Nov 06 2009 06:28 PM

Ed is that shear being caused by the subtropical jetstream? I hear talk about it and the connection with El Nino allowing this jet to move farther south than usual. Is the purple colored areas the only ones that will allow significant strengthening of tropical systemS?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 5-day wind shear analysis [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87145 - Fri Nov 06 2009 10:19 PM

The answers are 'yes' - and the El Nino has been a major contributor to the strength and the persistence of the southern branch of the jetstream. Given the massive areas of the Gulf with expected windshear in excess of 40mph, the likelyhood of a strong storm in the Gulf is mighty slim. If we are lucky, Florida will get some much needed rain - but even that prospect is still uncertain if the storm gets shoved to the south by the building ridge over the southeast.
ED


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: 5-day wind shear analysis [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87148 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:04 AM

I am not aware there are any graphics which forecast Wind Shear aloft beyond 96 hours but the US Navy does have model graphics and that link is - http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+ngpshrcolor+aor+ngpshr+aor+avnshr. CIMMS out of the University of Wisconsin is who the NHC refers to when discussions speak of shear; that link is - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-...0000&loop=0 .

The evolution of Ida is to say the least extremely complicated. Ed is right and as I stated a couple of days ago short of Ida being subtropical or extratropical it cannot survive given the shear which resides in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and as analysis currently indicates as of 07/03Z.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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