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MikeCAdministrator
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Ida a Hurricane Again Moving Northward
      #87155 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:04 AM

11:15PM EST Update 7 November 2009
A bouy near the center of Ida recorded 74mph sustained winds which puts Ida back at hurricane strength again. Recon is on the way overnight.



1PM EST Update 7 November 2009
Hurricane watch is still up for the eastern part Yucatan peninsula, including Cancun, since Ida is close to (70MPH, 5MPH Shy of) being a hurricane again.

Flhurricane Recorded Cancun Radar Animation

It is moving mostly north (with a hint of west) at 9mph, and has a window of opportunity to strengthen between now and Sunday evening. After it enters the Gulf it will likely start to lose Tropical characteristics and transform into a Extra Tropical storm, enhancing the pressure gradient differences and causing a breezy week ahead. A lot depends on forward motion, whether or not it stalls in the gulf, and not so much focused on the center if it becomes extratropical.

It may be a windy rainy week for north and eastern Gulf residents.

However, the situation is complex and could change, those along the North and Eastern Gulf will want to keep close tabs on the goings on of Ida over the next several days.


Original Update
Tropical Storm Ida is back, and it is heading generally north with a hint of a westward motion very late, it appears that it will enter the Gulf of Mexico around Monday and then things get interesting. Id has enough current support to get a chance to slowly strengthen. Once it approaches the Gulf conditions aren't great, but It likely will interact with a few other systems and become extra tropical in the Gulf of Mexico.



The water in the west Caribbean is plenty warm enough, so it has a small window to get stronger, but it also has the further it goes north, more storm killing shear to deal with (Similar to many other systems this season), but interesting even with the shear the environment around it will keep it from falling apart. It is gaining some strength, but it's about 50/50 it will make it all the way back to hurricane strength. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are on their way out there now to help determine what Ida is doing, it is possible they could find a stronger system than indicated at the earlier advisory.



extratropical Ida may be similar---but not quite the same-- as a nor-easter, and have a very large wind field (enhanced by a strong pressure gradient), which will likely make it windy east and north of the system, and because of the shape of the Gulf may cause some minor to moderate coastal flooding mid to late next week along the Gulf coastal areas.

That is the most likely threat from Ida, that it will likely be a ugly week in Florida outside, winds will gradually pick up this week. The pressure gradient even without Ida is high enough to make it breezy outside, when Ida gets closer it will likely pick up more, and the worst days will probably be Wednesday-Friday. Because it won't be purely tropical then the winds around there may likely be between 30 and 40 mph along the north and eastern coastal Gulf coast, and probably won't make it too far inland.

Since Ida will likely be transitioning to extra tropical in the Gulf, the winds will cover a much larger area than typical of Tropical Storms.

Things could change, so we'll watch.

Cancun Radar
Flhurricane Recorded Cancun Radar Animation
Ida Storm Spotlight
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Ida Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormPulse Map


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rgd
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87157 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:09 AM

The GFS...ECMWF...and
HWRF all move the cyclone quickly northward and show it reaching
the northern Gulf Coast in about 3 days as it becomes an
extratropical cyclone. The remainder of the guidance has trended
northward...but turns the system generally eastward before reaching
the northern Gulf Coast. For now...the official forecast is
between these two scenarios...but has been adjusted northward to
account for the latest trends.


If you look at the 7am runs they tend to take her now more towards the big bend area.Only 1 of the bigger models take her south before landfall but each run they have been trending her more and more north with lanfall in the north florida area.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87158 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:13 AM

With an extra tropical cyclone exactly where it landfalls really doesn't matter north and east will get the worst of it. Don't forget that it may very well stall out in the Gulf or curve back southward before the big bend. I think the NHC's long range cone is pretty good.

Long range models generally are in the lounge, though and will get moved there.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87162 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:36 AM

Recon is on it's way, but Ida's appearance now gives it a really good shot at become a hurricane again sometime today.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87164 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:08 AM

Recon has reached Ida, it shouldn't be too much longer until we have an idea where it's really at strength wise.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87165 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:34 AM

Judging from early recon, looks like windspeed is around 60 knots (70MPH), still shy of hurricane, but we don't have a vortex fix yet which will be the best indicator.

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rgd
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87166 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:38 AM

The forecast for Ida
Clipped.. pasting full articles is not allowed (out of respect for Jeff) Quotes from relevant portions are allowed. See Jeff Masters (also linked on the main page) - mike c.

Masters thinks it will not even be a TS and he just posted this.Not a long range forecast or a forecast but im sure you will remove it.

(To be correct, Dr Masters stated that it would probably not be a 45mph TS but that it probably would be a 45mph extratropical cyclone. If you are sure that we are going to remove something, then don't post it in the first place.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Nov 07 2009 12:11 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87167 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:43 AM

Pressure is down to roughly 989mb from recon, but still looks around 55-60knots at the surface (65-70MPH)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87168 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:14 PM

Added cancun Radar Animation recording for Ida:

Flhurricane Recorded Cancun Radar Animation


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87169 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:17 PM

Recon Vortex had a central pressure of 990mb and a surface wind of 56 knots. Location was 18.4N 84.0W at 07/1636Z.
ED


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Rasvar
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87171 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:38 PM

That recon is good to hear. I was a little worried that they may find her a little stronger. I wish the NHC forecaster luck in figuring out this complex forecast over the next couple of days.

--------------------
Jim


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Rasvar]
      #87172 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:10 PM

P. AF306 0211A IDA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 16:28:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 67 KT SW QUAD 16:41:10Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

Spiral Band Pattern is not really a welcome sign. Along with the high thin cirrus on top of the storm.
They may need to turn on the "Fasten Your Seat Belt" sign.

All of this backed up by the latest Discussion, first paragraph.

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF
HOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR. THE LATEST Dvorak INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM.



TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 (edited~danielw)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Rasvar]
      #87173 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:12 PM

AF306 first pass:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 16:36:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°25'N 84°01'W (18.4167N 84.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 263 miles (424 km) to the SE (136°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,355m (4,446ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144° at 65kts (From the SE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:28:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:41:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Nov 07 2009 01:15 PM)


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weathernet
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Rasvar]
      #87174 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:19 PM

Watching the day unfold, and with special interest in the various satelite resolutions, I could not help take notice of some appearant center to the north and east of the advisory points. Of course at first glance I was sure this feature was a "sucker hole", just some space in between forming banding features. However as the pics keep updating, I am becoming that much more inclined to wonder if in fact we are seeing some evidence of possible duel centers ( one soon to be absorbed by the more dominant one ), or a dislocated mid level center on one hand, with a lower level surface center on the other. Even looking at every resolution available, all I can come up with is greater evidence of this, rather than not. For the moment, just too hard for me to see distinct evidence of a rotation point under the massive bursting.

Nearly all models are seeing the "mean" steering to be towards the NNW. Given the southwesterly shear, one could make the case for the mid to upper level circulation to potentially zip off more to the north and east. Yet what appear to be some secondary center at the moment is most obviously not a mid to upper level circulation, simply obvious by all the convection shifting more north and westward. That and of course looking at the outflow....., there certainly does not seem to be any current impact by shear given the expanding Cirrus sheild in nearly all directions.

Finally, just to make the present appearance all the more odd, is that recon is appearantly finding surface winds, thus justifying a fix point at ( or just west of ) 84W. Will just wait and watch.....


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: weathernet]
      #87175 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:36 PM

Tropical cyclones organized enough to have a pressure of 990 mb do not have dual surface centers. What appears to be happening is some sw shear and dry air are slightly disrupting the core. If you look closely, it is almost like there is a supercell continuously firing on the west edge of the center, but the deep convection fades as it attempts to rotate around the east side. The apparent hole east/ne of the center is just a dry pocket where deep convection is lacking. There should not be anything more than slow intensification as long as the deep convection struggles to wrap around.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: weathernet]
      #87177 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:40 PM

recon in center 2nd time...around 1830z... looks like center moved DUE north... maybe just slight west... pressure near 988mb? will seen when vortex report in 10 mins... highest winds i've seen inbound on flight level.. From From 215° at 48 knots (From the SW at ~ 55.2 mph)... SE Quad... less then 20 miles from center.. flying 5k ft flight level

**note based on 12Z fix/data from today... storm is right of short term forecasted path by about 30 miles***

**UPDATE** GPS Dropsonde... has a 991mb in center drop at surface?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Nov 07 2009 02:01 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87178 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:04 PM

Drop from Center... 20 mins ago

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
991mb (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
904mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F)
850mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 17.6°C (63.7°F)
843mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 16.4°C (61.5°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
991mb (Surface) Unavailable
990mb 55° (from the NE) 23 knots (26 mph)
881mb 15° (from the NNE) 67 knots (77 mph)
843mb 30° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.


its not as warm as i thought it would be in the area the storm is in... the air temps and dew point are not as high as i thought they would be......

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Nov 07 2009 02:06 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87179 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:35 PM

last pass.. appears recon heading home... is this a sign of shear?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 19:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:32:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°52'N 84°10'W (18.8667N 84.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 234 miles (377 km) to the SE (132°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,349m (4,426ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 238° at 63kts (From the WSW at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:41:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN
ACTUAL CENTER APPROX 4NM SE


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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berrywr
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87180 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:55 PM

It is extremely important with Ida to pay particularly close attention to the terminology as we go forward. What makes an extratropical system different from a tropical and subtropical storm and the overall synoptic situation in relationship to the synoptic wind field and the wind fields with Ida as they interact tropically and extratropically. For the moment it is simply too complicated as to the number of variables that are and will be in play during the next few days. Personally, I can't remember the last time a tropical system underwent extratropical transition in the Gulf of Mexico and was bypassed by an incoming shortwave and frontal system. We all know what happens to old frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico; but it is November; not June.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: berrywr]
      #87182 - Sat Nov 07 2009 03:47 PM

Quote:

It is extremely important with Ida to pay particularly close attention to the terminology as we go forward. What makes an extratropical system different from a tropical and subtropical storm and the overall synoptic situation in relationship to the synoptic wind field and the wind fields with Ida as they interact tropically and extratropically. For the moment it is simply too complicated as to the number of variables that are and will be in play during the next few days. Personally, I can't remember the last time a tropical system underwent extratropical transition in the Gulf of Mexico and was bypassed by an incoming shortwave and frontal system. We all know what happens to old frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico; but it is November; not June.




You would HOPE the models would take the time of year into consideration.....I agree with you. I don't see how this system could hop over a front as if it wasn't there. This thing is headed northeast at some point and I don't see it turning around back to the south. Something is very odd about the models right now. (could it be that there are so few precedents for this type of system in early November?)

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


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Beach
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87183 - Sat Nov 07 2009 03:48 PM

I'm thinking at 5pm Ida will be a hurricane, and the track will be moved a little towards the East. ( closer to Cuba)

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rgd
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Beach]
      #87184 - Sat Nov 07 2009 03:52 PM

nope still 70mph but what gets me is they kept the same track yet all the models shifted north.

but she is not any stronger maybe take another run before they change it but most are showing different then what they are.


but with the new cone below tampa is not in the cone anymore.

from the NHC

By 120 hours...some of the guidance
suggest that the low will be absorbed by a frontal boundary...and
the official forecast does not provide a 5-day position for this
reason.


that is why there is no 5 day point.

Edited by rgd (Sat Nov 07 2009 03:59 PM)


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JFV25
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Beach]
      #87185 - Sat Nov 07 2009 04:09 PM

Hey, taking into account that as of the 4pm package update on now, Hurricane Ida, from the NHC, Southeast, FL is no longer inside of storm's cone of concern; therefore, as a result of this recent development, what type of fringe affects, if any, will SF experience from Ida when she makes her closes approach to us, early next week? Thanks in advance to whom ever decides to answer my question. Cheers,

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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: JFV25]
      #87186 - Sat Nov 07 2009 04:58 PM

First of all, the 'cone' is not a 'cone of concern'. The cone defines the limits of variability for the track of the storm. As you get further out in time, that variability (or degree of uncertainty) increases, so that at days 3, 4, and 5 the potential deviation of the track from the forecast increases as well. South Florida covers a large domain, but, just like any other kind of weather, your local NWS office is the best source for expected conditions.
ED


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charlottefl
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87187 - Sat Nov 07 2009 05:29 PM

There is also a certain percentage of the time that a tropical storm or hurricane will travel outside the cone. It's not full proof. Best to stay posted to local NWS offices. You're in the clear when the final advisory is written. After all this is the tropics, and just about anything can and will happen.

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Tony Cristaldi
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87188 - Sat Nov 07 2009 05:30 PM

Quote:

First of all, the 'cone' is not a 'cone of concern'. The cone defines the limits of variability for the track of the storm. As you get further out in time, that variability (or degree of uncertainty) increases, so that at days 3, 4, and 5 the potential deviation of the track from the forecast increases as well. South Florida covers a large domain, but, just like any other kind of weather, your local NWS office is the best source for expected conditions.
ED





Piggybacking on what Ed said, "the cone" simply explains 2/3 of the variance in T.C. tracks using the past 5-year history of NHC track forecasts. In other words, 2/3, or 67% of the tropical cyclones with the given forecast track will fall within the cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml


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CoconutCandy
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Ida Going Deep Once Again [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #87189 - Sat Nov 07 2009 06:05 PM

Ida has been putting on quite a display today, showing us once again how quickly these systems can reorganize and re-intensify, provided the right conditions are present.

For illustrative and historical purposes, here's the obligatory animated visible loop of Ida earlier today, showing the transformation from a relatively weak tropical storm appearing as a mass of organizing inner core convection and deeply embedded in a solid and impressive Central Dense Overcast, (the result of sustained, explosive thunderstorm activity over the LLC during last nights' convective max after departing Honduras and entering back over water), into a rapidly strengthening tropical storm boardering on hurricane intensity, with tight convective banding features now developing and emerging from below the CDO.

And outer convective features are re-developing again too, in a once-again rapidly-expanding tropical storm force windfield, especially noticable in the NE semi-circle, apparently in response to Ida's deeping of 10mb overnight and throughout the day today, down again from 1000mb to 990mb, and where she stops, nobody knows.



A decent 850mb vorticity max easily survived it's transit over the relatively flat terrain of NE Nicaragua and Eastern Honduras, and despite loosing it's deep convection after landfall and surface winds dropping to sub-tropical storm force, soon found itself exiting off the coast of Honduras and into very warm waters awaiting in the NW Caribbean.



In this passive microwave image of Ida near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border as a tropical depression, you may notice that despite having virtually no deep convection in the southern semicircle, and with surface winds still below tropical storm force, there still persists a good, tight 850mb (mid-level) cyclonic circualtion, drawing the deeper convection to it's north into it's still-robust circulation, and into a tight hook around the western quadrant, thus maintaining the relative health of the system and ready and waiting for rapid restrengthening to occur, once the center passes offshore and out over open water again.



And, as clearly shown in this microwave image from earlier in the day Saturday, that a well-organized and still-robust mid-level circulation was indeed able to tap into the very warm waters north of Honduras and quickly re-acquire tropical storm strength and even re-established a nearly complete eyewall structure, albiet slightly elongated and a tad open to the SW, presumably due to light vertical wind shear from the SW blowing over Ida throughout the day Saturday.



The end result of all this is that we now have a re-intensifying tropical storm heading for the Yucatan Channel that seems destined to re-acquire hurricane strength once again.

In the short-term, and especially judging from the small, compact size of the storm, it's entirely possible Ida could intensify substantially during tonight's convective max cycle.

Especially if the inner-core convection comprising the eyewall is deep and sustained enough throughout the night to negate the light shear currently over the system and it manages to close off a complete eyewall. If that were the case, a high-end Cat 1 or low-end Cat 2 Hurricane is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities!

... more analysis below ...

Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:18 AM)


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rgd
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Re: Ida Going Deep Once Again [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87190 - Sat Nov 07 2009 06:50 PM


Statement as of 7:00 PM EST on November 07, 2009


...Ida turns to the north-northwest...


Looks like the track is staying on course with the winds still 70mph


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LoisCane
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87192 - Sat Nov 07 2009 09:25 PM

limit of variabilities?

Interesting phrase... possible options?

areas to pay attention?

i dont know, dont think november storms are that easy to forecast... see how she does tomorrow...

take it one day at a time right now..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Rasvar
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: LoisCane]
      #87193 - Sat Nov 07 2009 09:40 PM

I think NHC will keep Ida at TS level based on the current Dvorak numbers. It will be interesting to see what recon finds when it gets there later this morning. I don't think they will make too many changes this advisory.

--------------------
Jim


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tropicswatch
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: MikeC]
      #87194 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:58 PM

Can't help but notice how Ida takes on a more healthier cyclonic look in the last few images on this loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

Don't know if that translates to higher wind speeds but it looks more impressive.


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: tropicswatch]
      #87195 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:19 PM

There is little question Ida is now a hurricane. The satellite loop and Cuban radar show a healthier core with deep convection encircling much of the center, whereas earlier it was stuck on the west side with dry air eating away at the east side. Also, Ida's center just went by a buoy. Even with strong wind from the north and now wnw, the buoy's pressure has plummeted to 985 mb. I have to think the center would be another few to several mb lower. When the last recon plane left this afternoon the pressure was 991 mb.

Update: The NHC just officially upgraded Ida to hurricane based on the buoy data.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #87198 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:33 PM

Wow a few minutes ago I was talking with Mike Watkins in person at an event here in Orlando about Ida still being a Storm, and then I get home to see the special statement and the buoy report. I still expect it to weaken some in the Gulf, but maybe not as much as before. The transition will be interesting to watch. At this point those in the Eastern and northern Gulf want to monitor this VERY Closely.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: MikeC]
      #87199 - Sun Nov 08 2009 12:58 AM

looks like recon just passed the center... pressure 985mb? winds do appear higher in flight level winds coming in threw the NW Quad into the center. Will see what dropsonde finds, in about 10 mins

this HDOB was just before the eyewall on the NW side... into the Center... do see some suspect data showing 110mph at flight level

Time: 05:46:00Z
Coordinates: 20.2833N 85.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,396 meters (~ 4,580 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 992.0 mb (~ 29.29 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 84° at 91 knots (From the E at ~ 104.6 mph)
Air Temp: 15.1°C (~ 59.2°F)
Dew Pt: 9.6°C (~ 49.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 96 knots (~ 110.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 81 knots (~ 93.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 20 mm/hr (~ 0.79 in/hr)

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Nov 08 2009 01:00 AM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: MikeC]
      #87200 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:05 AM

Well, Recon just found 90MPH Surface winds and a 985 surface pressure so far. no vortex message, but I suspect the storm is doing some pretty impressive deepening overnight.

I'm honestly not sure how it's going to affect the track and path of the storm, but if you're on the gulf coast, please pay attention to this storm, it could surprise people, particularly this late in the season over a weekend.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2014 Predictions)
03/03/01/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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berrywr
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87201 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:07 AM

Quote:

Quote:

It is extremely important with Ida to pay particularly close attention to the terminology as we go forward. What makes an extratropical system different from a tropical and subtropical storm and the overall synoptic situation in relationship to the synoptic wind field and the wind fields with Ida as they interact tropically and extratropically. For the moment it is simply too complicated as to the number of variables that are and will be in play during the next few days. Personally, I can't remember the last time a tropical system underwent extratropical transition in the Gulf of Mexico and was bypassed by an incoming shortwave and frontal system. We all know what happens to old frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico; but it is November; not June.




You would HOPE the models would take the time of year into consideration.....I agree with you. I don't see how this system could hop over a front as if it wasn't there. This thing is headed northeast at some point and I don't see it turning around back to the south. Something is very odd about the models right now. (could it be that there are so few precedents for this type of system in early November?)




The processes which power a "pure" tropical system are fueled by what we know is latent heat; a steam engine in simple terminology. In the military, weather forecasters are taught the difference between what are called cold core lows, warm core lows and the aggravation that exists when their warm and cold depended upon the structure at that time. A warm core low can be a thermal low which are very common in the desert SW USA due to very hot temperatures at the surface and tropical weather systems; both have the common denominator of not requiring upper level support. A dynamic low is the same as an extratropical low. It is driven by baroclinic processes; the contrast in temperatures of varying air masses. This time of year the polar front and subtropical polar jet streams move south as we progress towards winter. The difference between the polar front jet and the subtropical jet are the temperatures in the respective air masses which they reside in. Throughout the winter season it is not at all uncommon to have the two jet streams merge as one. There are other jet streams; arctic and tropical easterly but not a factor here as their names imply. As per NHC discussions there is a strong shortwave trough progressing eastward and will extend itself well into the Gulf of Mexico. This time of year the sea-state temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico are considerably cooler than the Carribbean Sea and will play a role in weakening Ida as she moves northward. The winds aloft are quite stout from west to east and they too will have a role in dampening Ida. The laws that drive these differing systems prohibit the union of a tropical hurricane and a frontal boundary. As Ida transitions to extratropical please note the course change to the east and south as Ida taps upper level support which we know is west to east and later this week as the shortwave trough and longwave pattern shifts east and the SE USA is under NW flow aloft. All of us are in for a treat; a hurricane becomes extratropical, it may merge with a frontal system and with a little luck we'll see something pretty cool; it become a stationary front draped across the state of Florida but not before this system dazzles us with why this forum exists.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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Marvin
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87203 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:33 AM

1st dropsonde showed 89knots

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Marvin]
      #87204 - Sun Nov 08 2009 01:42 AM

appears the northern side of storm is healthy...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 06:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 5:50:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°06'N 85°21'W (20.1N 85.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 120 miles (194 km) to the SE (127°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,294m (4,245ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (8°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 82° at 96kts (From the E at ~ 110.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,537m (5,043ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:46:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND THRU N QUADS

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Marvin
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87205 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:01 AM

Looking at the GOM and floater WV loop, it appears that Ida is tracking more west/northwest than predicted...

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Marvin]
      #87206 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:18 AM

eyewall/center of Hurricane Ida is showing up good on Cancun radar... appeared to be a closed center... but hard to tell, because the storm is far away from radar. Tracking it with radar will help show direction for the next 12-24 hrs, while in radar range

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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JFV25
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Marvin]
      #87207 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:20 AM

Hi, no offense, but that's clearly a directional oximoron right there. How on God's green earth would an exloding system like Ida right now, be moving towards the west, instead of moving towards the east, like history this time of the year WOULD CLEARLY dictate. Cheers, .

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: JFV25]
      #87208 - Sun Nov 08 2009 02:40 AM

recon just made second pass through the center... i think i see 979/980 mb in data... will see soon! They flew inbound from NE side of center... winds not as strong at flight level and suface as the NW side it appears to me at the moment.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Nov 08 2009 02:43 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87209 - Sun Nov 08 2009 03:00 AM

guess my math was off!

**note** Lightning in the EYEWALL


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 07:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 7:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°18'N 85°27'W (20.3N 85.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (172 km) between the ESE and SE (123°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,969m (9,741ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the south to the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 290° to 110° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:46:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FQT LTG IN EYEWALL


Have to say good Job to the NHC for being on top of things... u can tell there watching the AF recon data and the buoy data... They have issued a few special adv. this morning before the main adv. pkg comes out... they adjusted the short-term path in a 115am adv...

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST OF IDA. BASED ON THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS RAISED TO 85 KT AT 12 AND 24 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT SOMETIME
TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Nov 08 2009 03:05 AM)


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flarrfan
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Re: Ida Near Hurricane Strength Again Moving Northward [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87210 - Sun Nov 08 2009 06:21 AM

Good morning, constant storm-time lurker here with my first post in several years. Usually I find answers to my questions in the forum, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hurricane Kate. I lived in Tallahassee in November '85 and so would be interested in more about why the extra-tropical transition forecast. As an amateur in both tropical meteorology and weather history, I am guessing there are three factors in the forecast for Ida as distinguished from Kate: (1) Kate was a major hurricane that entered the Gulf from the east rather than from the south; (2) SST's were a little warmer in the northern Gulf in '85 than today; and (3) there was no front pushing down into the Gulf to disrupt the system, as the Ida forecast apparently contemplates. According to what I looked at this morning, Kate did not become extra-tropical until about the time it was approaching Georgia and knocking down most of the trees in Tallahassee while passing about 30 miles northwest of my house. Anyone else have any thoughts about why Ida would not follow Kate's example?

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LoisCane
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Re: Hurricane Ida Nearing Cancun, Bordering on Cat 2 [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87212 - Sun Nov 08 2009 07:14 AM

Excellent discussion here this morning, thank you!

Did she move west or was she really relocated?

Think everything beyond the next 24 hours is guessing, educated or otherwise. Hard storm to forecast.

Also, energy in the western gulf of mexico may be throwing a fly into the ointment

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

I had spent so much time watching the digging high in the atlantic and what was upstream to the north and nw that i really didn't notice how consolidated the western GOM had gotten and how if possible that area could reinforce some sort of sub tropical jet running energy out ahead of the front moving down.

November storms are ripe with possibilities...


Great image of her center off the tip of the Yucatan, thanks..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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