Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
|
|
I'm thinking at 5pm Ida will be a hurricane, and the track will be moved a little towards the East. ( closer to Cuba)
|
rgd
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
|
|
nope still 70mph but what gets me is they kept the same track yet all the models shifted north.
but she is not any stronger maybe take another run before they change it but most are showing different then what they are.
but with the new cone below tampa is not in the cone anymore.
from the
By 120 hours...some of the guidance
suggest that the low will be absorbed by a frontal boundary...and
the official forecast does not provide a 5-day position for this
reason.
that is why there is no 5 day point.
Edited by rgd (Sat Nov 07 2009 03:59 PM)
|
JFV25
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
|
|
Hey, taking into account that as of the 4pm package update on now, Hurricane Ida, from the , Southeast, FL is no longer inside of storm's cone of concern; therefore, as a result of this recent development, what type of fringe affects, if any, will SF experience from Ida when she makes her closes approach to us, early next week? Thanks in advance to whom ever decides to answer my question. Cheers, 
|
Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
First of all, the 'cone' is not a 'cone of concern'. The cone defines the limits of variability for the track of the storm. As you get further out in time, that variability (or degree of uncertainty) increases, so that at days 3, 4, and 5 the potential deviation of the track from the forecast increases as well. South Florida covers a large domain, but, just like any other kind of weather, your local NWS office is the best source for expected conditions.
ED
|
charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
|
|
There is also a certain percentage of the time that a tropical storm or hurricane will travel outside the cone. It's not full proof. Best to stay posted to local NWS offices. You're in the clear when the final advisory is written. After all this is the tropics, and just about anything can and will happen.
|
Tony Cristaldi
NWS Meteorologist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: West Melbourne, Florida
|
|
Quote:
First of all, the 'cone' is not a 'cone of concern'. The cone defines the limits of variability for the track of the storm. As you get further out in time, that variability (or degree of uncertainty) increases, so that at days 3, 4, and 5 the potential deviation of the track from the forecast increases as well. South Florida covers a large domain, but, just like any other kind of weather, your local NWS office is the best source for expected conditions.
ED
Piggybacking on what Ed said, "the cone" simply explains 2/3 of the variance in T.C. tracks using the past 5-year history of track forecasts. In other words, 2/3, or 67% of the tropical cyclones with the given forecast track will fall within the cone.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
|
CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 237
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
|
|
Ida has been putting on quite a display today, showing us once again how quickly these systems can reorganize and re-intensify, provided the right conditions are present.
For illustrative and historical purposes, here's the obligatory animated visible loop of Ida earlier today, showing the transformation from a relatively weak tropical storm appearing as a mass of organizing inner core convection and deeply embedded in a solid and impressive Central Dense Overcast, (the result of sustained, explosive thunderstorm activity over the LLC during last nights' convective max after departing Honduras and entering back over water), into a rapidly strengthening tropical storm boardering on hurricane intensity, with tight convective banding features now developing and emerging from below the .
And outer convective features are re-developing again too, in a once-again rapidly-expanding tropical storm force windfield, especially noticable in the NE semi-circle, apparently in response to Ida's deeping of 10mb overnight and throughout the day today, down again from 1000mb to 990mb, and where she stops, nobody knows.
A decent 850mb vorticity max easily survived it's transit over the relatively flat terrain of NE Nicaragua and Eastern Honduras, and despite loosing it's deep convection after landfall and surface winds dropping to sub-tropical storm force, soon found itself exiting off the coast of Honduras and into very warm waters awaiting in the NW Caribbean.
In this passive microwave image of Ida near the Nicaraguan/Honduran border as a tropical depression, you may notice that despite having virtually no deep convection in the southern semicircle, and with surface winds still below tropical storm force, there still persists a good, tight 850mb (mid-level) cyclonic circualtion, drawing the deeper convection to it's north into it's still-robust circulation, and into a tight hook around the western quadrant, thus maintaining the relative health of the system and ready and waiting for rapid restrengthening to occur, once the center passes offshore and out over open water again.
And, as clearly shown in this microwave image from earlier in the day Saturday, that a well-organized and still-robust mid-level circulation was indeed able to tap into the very warm waters north of Honduras and quickly re-acquire tropical storm strength and even re-established a nearly complete eyewall structure, albiet slightly elongated and a tad open to the SW, presumably due to light vertical wind shear from the SW blowing over Ida throughout the day Saturday.
The end result of all this is that we now have a re-intensifying tropical storm heading for the Yucatan Channel that seems destined to re-acquire hurricane strength once again.
In the short-term, and especially judging from the small, compact size of the storm, it's entirely possible Ida could intensify substantially during tonight's convective max cycle.
Especially if the inner-core convection comprising the eyewall is deep and sustained enough throughout the night to negate the light shear currently over the system and it manages to close off a complete eyewall. If that were the case, a high-end Cat 1 or low-end Cat 2 Hurricane is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities!
... more analysis below ...
Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Nov 08 2009 10:18 AM)
|
rgd
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 65
|
|
Statement as of 7:00 PM EST on November 07, 2009
...Ida turns to the north-northwest...
Looks like the track is staying on course with the winds still 70mph
|
LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
|
|
limit of variabilities?
Interesting phrase... possible options?
areas to pay attention?
i dont know, dont think november storms are that easy to forecast... see how she does tomorrow...
take it one day at a time right now..
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
I think will keep Ida at TS level based on the current numbers. It will be interesting to see what recon finds when it gets there later this morning. I don't think they will make too many changes this advisory.
--------------------
Jim
|
tropicswatch
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
|
|
Can't help but notice how Ida takes on a more healthier cyclonic look in the last few images on this loop
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
Don't know if that translates to higher wind speeds but it looks more impressive.
|
Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 53
|
|
There is little question Ida is now a hurricane. The satellite loop and Cuban radar show a healthier core with deep convection encircling much of the center, whereas earlier it was stuck on the west side with dry air eating away at the east side. Also, Ida's center just went by a buoy. Even with strong wind from the north and now wnw, the buoy's pressure has plummeted to 985 mb. I have to think the center would be another few to several mb lower. When the last recon plane left this afternoon the pressure was 991 mb.
Update: The just officially upgraded Ida to hurricane based on the buoy data.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
|
|
Wow a few minutes ago I was talking with Mike Watkins in person at an event here in Orlando about Ida still being a Storm, and then I get home to see the special statement and the buoy report. I still expect it to weaken some in the Gulf, but maybe not as much as before. The transition will be interesting to watch. At this point those in the Eastern and northern Gulf want to monitor this VERY Closely.
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
|
|
looks like recon just passed the center... pressure 985mb? winds do appear higher in flight level winds coming in threw the NW Quad into the center. Will see what dropsonde finds, in about 10 mins
this HDOB was just before the eyewall on the NW side... into the Center... do see some suspect data showing 110mph at flight level
Time: 05:46:00Z
Coordinates: 20.2833N 85.3333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,396 meters (~ 4,580 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 992.0 mb (~ 29.29 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 84° at 91 knots (From the E at ~ 104.6 mph)
Air Temp: 15.1°C (~ 59.2°F)
Dew Pt: 9.6°C (~ 49.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 96 knots (~ 110.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: 81 knots (~ 93.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 20 mm/hr (~ 0.79 in/hr)
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Nov 08 2009 01:00 AM)
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
|
|
Well, Recon just found 90MPH Surface winds and a 985 surface pressure so far. no vortex message, but I suspect the storm is doing some pretty impressive deepening overnight.
I'm honestly not sure how it's going to affect the track and path of the storm, but if you're on the gulf coast, please pay attention to this storm, it could surprise people, particularly this late in the season over a weekend.
--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals
http://blog.bloodstar.org
|
berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
It is extremely important with Ida to pay particularly close attention to the terminology as we go forward. What makes an system different from a tropical and subtropical storm and the overall synoptic situation in relationship to the synoptic wind field and the wind fields with Ida as they interact tropically and ly. For the moment it is simply too complicated as to the number of variables that are and will be in play during the next few days. Personally, I can't remember the last time a tropical system underwent transition in the Gulf of Mexico and was bypassed by an incoming shortwave and frontal system. We all know what happens to old frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico; but it is November; not June.
You would HOPE the models would take the time of year into consideration.....I agree with you. I don't see how this system could hop over a front as if it wasn't there. This thing is headed northeast at some point and I don't see it turning around back to the south. Something is very odd about the models right now. (could it be that there are so few precedents for this type of system in early November?)
The processes which power a "pure" tropical system are fueled by what we know is latent heat; a steam engine in simple terminology. In the military, weather forecasters are taught the difference between what are called cold core lows, warm core lows and the aggravation that exists when their warm and cold depended upon the structure at that time. A warm core low can be a thermal low which are very common in the desert SW USA due to very hot temperatures at the surface and tropical weather systems; both have the common denominator of not requiring upper level support. A dynamic low is the same as an low. It is driven by baroclinic processes; the contrast in temperatures of varying air masses. This time of year the polar front and subtropical polar jet streams move south as we progress towards winter. The difference between the polar front jet and the subtropical jet are the temperatures in the respective air masses which they reside in. Throughout the winter season it is not at all uncommon to have the two jet streams merge as one. There are other jet streams; arctic and tropical easterly but not a factor here as their names imply. As per discussions there is a strong shortwave trough progressing eastward and will extend itself well into the Gulf of Mexico. This time of year the sea-state temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico are considerably cooler than the Carribbean Sea and will play a role in weakening Ida as she moves northward. The winds aloft are quite stout from west to east and they too will have a role in dampening Ida. The laws that drive these differing systems prohibit the union of a tropical hurricane and a frontal boundary. As Ida transitions to please note the course change to the east and south as Ida taps upper level support which we know is west to east and later this week as the shortwave trough and longwave pattern shifts east and the SE USA is under NW flow aloft. All of us are in for a treat; a hurricane becomes , it may merge with a frontal system and with a little luck we'll see something pretty cool; it become a stationary front draped across the state of Florida but not before this system dazzles us with why this forum exists.
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
|
Marvin
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
|
|
1st dropsonde showed 89knots
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
|
|
appears the northern side of storm is healthy...
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 06:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 5:50:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°06'N 85°21'W (20.1N 85.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 120 miles (194 km) to the SE (127°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,294m (4,245ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (8°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 82° at 96kts (From the E at ~ 110.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,537m (5,043ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,516m (4,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:46:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND THRU N QUADS
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Marvin
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 4
|
|
Looking at the GOM and floater WV loop, it appears that Ida is tracking more west/northwest than predicted...
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
|
|
eyewall/center of Hurricane Ida is showing up good on Cancun radar... appeared to be a closed center... but hard to tell, because the storm is far away from radar. Tracking it with radar will help show direction for the next 12-24 hrs, while in radar range
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
