JFV25
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
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Hi, no offense, but that's clearly a directional oximoron right there. How on God's green earth would an exloding system like Ida right now, be moving towards the west, instead of moving towards the east, like history this time of the year WOULD CLEARLY dictate. Cheers,  . 
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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recon just made second pass through the center... i think i see 979/980 mb in data... will see soon! They flew inbound from NE side of center... winds not as strong at flight level and suface as the NW side it appears to me at the moment.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Nov 08 2009 02:43 AM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1369
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
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guess my math was off!
**note** Lightning in the EYEWALL
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 07:49Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 7:27:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°18'N 85°27'W (20.3N 85.45W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (172 km) between the ESE and SE (123°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,969m (9,741ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE (23°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 125° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the south to the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 290° to 110° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) in the north quadrant at 5:46:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FQT LTG IN EYEWALL
Have to say good Job to the for being on top of things... u can tell there watching the AF recon data and the buoy data... They have issued a few special adv. this morning before the main adv. pkg comes out... they adjusted the short-term path in a 115am adv...
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST OF IDA. BASED ON THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS RAISED TO 85 KT AT 12 AND 24 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT SOMETIME
TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Nov 08 2009 03:05 AM)
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Spring Hill FL
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Good morning, constant storm-time lurker here with my first post in several years. Usually I find answers to my questions in the forum, but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hurricane Kate. I lived in Tallahassee in November '85 and so would be interested in more about why the extra-tropical transition forecast. As an amateur in both tropical meteorology and weather history, I am guessing there are three factors in the forecast for Ida as distinguished from Kate: (1) Kate was a major hurricane that entered the Gulf from the east rather than from the south; (2) SST's were a little warmer in the northern Gulf in '85 than today; and (3) there was no front pushing down into the Gulf to disrupt the system, as the Ida forecast apparently contemplates. According to what I looked at this morning, Kate did not become extra-tropical until about the time it was approaching Georgia and knocking down most of the trees in Tallahassee while passing about 30 miles northwest of my house. Anyone else have any thoughts about why Ida would not follow Kate's example?
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Excellent discussion here this morning, thank you!
Did she move west or was she really relocated?
Think everything beyond the next 24 hours is guessing, educated or otherwise. Hard storm to forecast.
Also, energy in the western gulf of mexico may be throwing a fly into the ointment
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
I had spent so much time watching the digging high in the atlantic and what was upstream to the north and nw that i really didn't notice how consolidated the western GOM had gotten and how if possible that area could reinforce some sort of sub tropical jet running energy out ahead of the front moving down.
November storms are ripe with possibilities...
Great image of her center off the tip of the Yucatan, thanks..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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