GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
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I'm still shooting high with 20/10/5. Last year with El Nino we had 9/3/2 and everybody agrees we got lucky. With any luck, I'm wrong. We'll see.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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My WAG: 14/8/4
Hopefully, they all will be fish spinners.
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Michael
PWS
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Apparently the El Nino is fading fast and things over in the Pacific are almost neutral now, and trending to a weak La Nina. I think this will be a key ingredient in allowing for more storms, and for more Cape Verde storms.
Accordingly, I think we'll have a slightly above average system, but with weaker trade winds, I see more storms forming further East than say 2005, and thus becoming more of an East coast and a fish spinner season.
Water temperatures are prime in the tropical Atlantic, dust doesn't seem to be in the cards, and the tropical Atlantic seems to be a prime breeding ground now with sheer being relatively low.
In 2010 I do think Bermuda will have their fair share of "threats", close calls, and then some this year. I think N Carolina is prime for a hurricane too. Let's hope it's not a major. Florida will be threatened too, but they will watch several storms pass them by to the East and they head towards the outer banks or for an ever quicker recurve EAST of the .
I see the Gulf Coast being hit by two strong TS/Cat one hurricanes; but I think the Gulf states will not see a major hit this season. These two will be storms of the homegrown variety.
In the Carribean I see poor Haiti/DR, getting hit as a storm fails to recurve in time. Cuba will not be under the gun from a major hit.
My overall numbers are 17/8/5.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Greetings all! It's been awhile. Life has kept me pretty busy for some time.
I'm too rusty to attempt a prediction, however, the set-up for this year is a definite eye opener. Gulf water temps in my area jumped 11F in the past 5 days.
I'll be real interested in where the Bermuda High decides to park and what influence we get from the SAL.
Be safe everyone. Ill be around more frequently after I get this 5 point safety harness installed on my workstation chair...
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Any updated thoughts ED on this season as june1 approaches. thanks
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Nothing much to add except 1958 continues as the best analog year for the upcoming season - both in total number of storms and in potential track patterns (note: not exact tracks but areas of likely activity).
While a hybrid early season storm is possible in June or July, the real kickoff to the season will likely be in August (which is quite normal for a normal activity season). No changes to my earlier thoughts for 10/6/3.
As noted earlier, I'll be closing out this thread at the end of May, but that still gives you two weeks to post your own forecast for the season. Only those forecasts with exact numbers (i.e. 10/6/3), rather than a range of numbers (i.e. 8-12/5-8/2-5), will be considered in the summary at the end of the season. Good Luck.
Cheers,
ED
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Hurricane29
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida
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Not sure the reason for such low numbers there ED....
Let's see: El Nino is dead...shear should be weaker as a result.
Atlantic all time record TNA/AMO for MAR/APR in with robust SST that already look like July.
Analogous years with fading Nino/robust AMO : 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005.
Should be VERY active season (16+ storms), and the way the SSTa are shaping up, the Carib should be very warm...I would favor a GOM/Carib season once again.
Only negatives at this point is how much shear there is in the Carib, but I am thinking it is going to be weak.
ECMWF seasonal forecast mean MSLP forecast
This link supports consistent low pressures in the W. Atlantic/GOM. And with super warm SST in the Atlantic, should be no problem getting upward motion there when pulses dictate so.
Edited by Hurricane29 (Mon May 17 2010 10:08 AM)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Hey all. Getting ready for the new season....glad to see some familiar faces visiting already. It was very interesting for me to read about very warm water temps in the Atlantic after the very cold winter we had here in Florida. I had just assumed that it would be similarly cool. The GOM DID start out cool early on but has really caught up the past 3-4 weeks. I don't have much prediction expertise to go on but I will give it a shot. After reading the somewhat conflicting viewpoints posted so far, I will have to blend them together a bit.
I am thinking there will be a solid upswing this season with El Nino going away so quickly. The possibility of La Nina conditions forming so soon after also leads to a belief in a busy season. Was going to go with 14 named storms, 8 of which will be hurricanes and 4 of those that will be considered MAJOR storms, but I see (after going back through the thread) that srquirrely beat me to that. I will trust Ed a bit and knock mine down to 13/7/4 but with about 20 systems all together (including depressions). I am thinking that those that DO get organized will have plenty of energy to reach hurricane strength. Hope all of the really high forcasts are dead wrong as I sit here on this peninsula of land jutting right in the middle of hurricane alley!
Looking forward to all the the excellent expert commentary and advice that this site is known for! Even after over 40 years of following tropical weather, I find I learn a LOT here every season! Keep up the good work!!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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saltysenior
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 19
Loc: stuart,fl.
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with the need of the weather people and the media to talk about something,i believe the qualifications needed to upgrade a weather system will be fudged upon........so i say 17-------11------3.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
Well, I'd done all this math to come up with a statistical reason for my prediction and I think I forgot to hit post. But here we go
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 21
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 19
Hurricanes - 10
Major Hurricanes - 5
Where did these numbers come from? by taking the most active of the 4 out of last 6 years and averaging out the totals and then adjusting by one, depending on my feelings of verisimilitude for my numbers.
With the SSTs warming and we're already heading towards La Nina conditions I'm going to go ahead and revise my forecast:
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 23
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 21
Hurricanes - 12
Major Hurricanes - 7
I've taken the three most active years this last decade (by catagory) and averaged them together and then bumped the numbers up by one.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
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Now I'm starting to get nervous.......I'm glad I'm up around Gainesville. We'll never get hit up here.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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*edit* Raising my numbers after further study. In particular, trends continue *rapidly* developing in favor of a season of substantially lower-than-average shear, average to above average moisture content (perhaps much above average once the African monsoon kicks in), significantly lower MSLP, significantly enhanced instabilities, greater numbers of potential disturbances with which to build upon, and low and lowering SAL.
Additionally, historical trends since 1995 suggest that even an unimpressive, "average" season during these years would yield roughly 14-15 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. Barring any unforeseen changes, this year continues turning up to have the potential to best those figures by at least 20%.
My newly adjusted best guesses are now as follows:
19 storms total (named in real-time and/or added post-season), of which 11 become hurricanes, of which 6 become major hurricanes.
Orig. Entry:
Happy New Year, everyone.
It looks like a number of us are generally clustered around in above to well-above average numbers.
Given the likelihood of an Atlantic hurricane season that, as mentioned here and elsewhere, is currently following many similar trends as seen during 1958, 1969, 1998, 2005 and other very active years, calling for numbers considerably above the long-term average makes plenty of sense.
I'm finding my eagerness to join the chorus maybe only a little held in check by lots of seasonal shear and drier air still bantering about, some still cooler SSTs closer to home in regions that are typically more favorable for early development, relatively less activity and generally drier conditions over western Africa, and a potentially unknown variable in the form of a very large oil slick coating a TBD surface area, which could, in theory, hold back at least some statistically significant heat transferability.
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
Edited by cieldumort (Thu May 27 2010 06:22 AM)
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Going 13/7/5
weaking el niño and lighter sheer will be offset by higher volcanic activity and low solar activity.
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
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Quote:
Going 13/7/5
weaking el niño and lighter sheer will be offset by higher volcanic activity and low solar activity.
The higher volcanic activicy I can understand, but where did you get the low solar activity?
http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2010...ss-with-gps.ars
(Remember, rationale in this thread is not required, and as mentioned at the start of the thread, please limit posts to those that contain your forecast for the season - it makes it easier for me to develop a summary of results at the end of the season. If rationale is given, it does not have to be justified. Perhaps the Private Message capability would have been a better choice for this.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 26 2010 08:03 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Thr latest SST Outlook issued on May 23rd confirms an earlier end to El Nino conditions and a more modest La Nina in the 3.4 region for the next six months (or more). With consideration for this trend I'm going to nudge my seasonal outlook to 11/7/3. Note that 1966 replaces 1958 as the best analog year. There are some SST trends that support the season getting underway in July rather than August. You still have a few more days to throw your hat into the ring with your own forecast for the season. The latest CSU forecast is scheduled for release on June 2nd, and this thread will close on May 31st.
Cheers,
ED
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Chris 566
Unregistered
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I'm gonna go with 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes....
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Hmmm. I kept my prediction a little low because of Ed's low numbers. Now he has edged his up.....should I push mine up respectively??? This actually makes me think my original 14/8/4 may have been the right way to go at the first. Looking at 1966.....it was a 12/7/3 year (if you include the non-tropical Kendra). Of note, two hurricanes struck Florida - Alma crossed the keys (IN JUNE) then up the west coast and back across the panhandle as a TS. and Inez went through the keys on its way to the Yucatan and Mexico. It was also an early season with 4 hurricanes (1 major) and 1 tropical storm before the end of July. Well...I think I will stick with what I said at 13/7/4. Certainly should be in interesting season and I would be interested in someone's take on how global climate changes may affect the comparison from 1966 to the present, or is that factored in already.
The countdown is to 6 days until the season starts!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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NHC predicts a big season http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/27/active-hurricane-seasons-record-year-say-scientists/
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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okihabu
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Spring Hill, Florida
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Well I am not as the rest of you, but here goes, 17 named, 8 hurricanes, 6 major. I think since El Nino presence will not be a factor it will have the same effect we had in '04. 22 yrs on Okinawa taught me cant predict these things.
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Chuck Good
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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20/12/8 First named storm June 22nd.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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