Outlook for the 2010 Atlantic Season

The latest NOAA/CPC forecasts indicate that the current moderate El Nino should persist through Spring 2010, and probably linger in a weaker state through the Summer.

The forecast implies a below normal season for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Initial selections for best analog years are 1973, 1993, 1968 and 1987, and my initial outlook for the 2010 season is 8/4/1 (8 named storms with 4 becoming hurricanes and one of the four becoming a major hurricane).

If you have numeric guesses, click here to add and see others. Rationale is not required, although the reasoning behind your numbers is always welcomed. It will be open until the end of May and then we can examine the results at the end of the season.

Last year as a group we didn’t do so well with most of the forecasts running on the high side.

Note that multi-year below normal seasons are not that uncommon. Recent examples include 1967-68, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87 and 1991-94. To make it easier to compile the end-of-season results, please limit your inputs in this thread to forecasts (and rationale if any).

(Above was Reposted from ED)

In other hurricane related news, the format for public advisories is changing for 2010, and warning lead time is being added.

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