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Archives >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Outlook for the 2010 Season
      #87366 - Sun Feb 14 2010 03:46 PM

Latest NOAA/CPC forecasts indicate that the current moderate El Nino should persist through Spring 2010, and probably linger in a weaker state through the Summer. The forecast implies a below normal season for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin. Initial selections for best analog years are 1973, 1993, 1968 and 1987, and my initial outlook for the 2010 season is 8/4/1 (8 named storms with 4 becoming hurricanes and one of the four becoming a major hurricane).

This is your chance to post your own forecast for the season. Rationale is not required, although the reasoning behind your numbers is always welcomed. I’ll keep this thread open until the end of May and then we can examine the results at the end of the season. Last year as a group we didn’t do so well with most of the forecasts running on the high side.

Note that multi-year below normal seasons are not that uncommon. Recent examples include 1967-68, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1986-87 and 1991-94. To make it easier to compile the end-of-season results, please limit your inputs in this thread to forecasts (and rationale if any).
Cheers,
ED


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87368 - Thu Feb 18 2010 12:27 PM

With trades being nonexistent the eastern atlantic is running above normal i.e.; main development region and would not be suprised for an early start to the capeverde season. ENSO model forecasts continue to show a rapid weaking of el nino transitioning to Neutral. 11-16 storms 7-8 hurricanes 3-5 majors.





Edited by Hurricane29 (Thu Feb 18 2010 12:41 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87369 - Thu Feb 18 2010 09:28 PM

SST forecast discussions now state that about half of the models show a decline in El Nino to a neutral state while half of the models continue El Nino through April, May and June. The NOAA consensus is that the current El Nino has peaked at +1.2C in the ENSO 3.4 region of the equatorial eastern Pacific.

Note that only those forecasts that state firm numbers (rather than a range of numbers) can be considered in the final tally of how well the site users forecasted the seasonal totals since scoring is based on numerical deviation from the final totals.

Also note that as the season approaches and new data becomes available, you can adjust your forecast until this thread closes at the end of May.

While current trends in ENSO anomalies would hint at the potential for a busier season, since SST forecasts during the winter season are notorius for considerable variability, I'm going to maintain my low-end forecast for awhile longer.

For those that might be considering a busy season, if in fact the El Nino declines, the best analog years are 1978, 1988, 1966 and 1998 in that order.
ED


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87372 - Sat Feb 20 2010 07:13 AM

I'm going to take a stab in the dark here and make an early prediction of 12 Depressions, 10 of which will become named storms, 6 of which will become hurricanes, and 3 of which will become major hurricanes.

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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: JoshuaK]
      #87373 - Sat Feb 20 2010 10:52 AM

Another quick comparison...Something to keep an eye on in the coming months.

Anomalies from this time last year Febuary-2009

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomw.2.19.2009.gif

Currently Anomalies 2010

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomw.2.18.2010.gif

Edited by danielw (Wed Feb 24 2010 07:32 AM)


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B.C.Francis
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #87374 - Mon Feb 22 2010 12:34 PM

2010 season....9/5/2........Looking forward to some nice balmy weather. I hate cold weather. Enough is enough here in East Central Florida. Bring on the 80s and a nice spring.

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enterlaughing
Registered User


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #87378 - Mon Mar 01 2010 09:45 PM

I'm thinking pretty calm, but not dormant.........10/5/2

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jessiej
Weather Watcher


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87379 - Wed Mar 03 2010 08:33 PM

14/7/3

--------------------
Katrina 2005
Wilma 2005


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87380 - Thu Mar 04 2010 12:29 PM

2010 Prediction

This forecasts are based on statistical methodologies derived from past data. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past. Qualitative adjustments are added to accommodate additional processes which may not be explicitly represented by the statistical analyses. This year these items includes:

1. The El Niño that many of the ENSO forecast models indicate that neutral condition are likely for this upcoming late summer/fall. d.

2. A declined change back to "normal" active (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) period dynamics. Unlike 2009 when both thermodynamic (i.e., sea surface temperatures, mid-level moisture) and dynamic factors (i.e., vertical wind shear, pre-existing vorticity) were less favorable for tropical cyclone formation and intensification..

Despite a fairly inactive 2009 hurricane season, it appears that the Atlantic basin is currently in an active hurricane cycle associated with a strong thermohaline circulation and an active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two at which time we should enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925. Atlantic hurricanes go through multi-decadal cycles. Cycles in Atlantic major hurricanes have been observationally traced back to the mid-19th century, and changes in the AMO have been inferred from Greenland paleo ice-core temperature measurements going back thousand of years.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=74948&Main=74348

No. of Hurricanes 9
No. of Named Storms 15
No. of Hurricane Days 30
No. of Named Storm Days 69
Intense Hurricanes 3
Intense Hurricane Days 5
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 154

Edited by danielw (Fri Mar 05 2010 08:14 AM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87381 - Thu Mar 04 2010 03:53 PM

Well, I'd done all this math to come up with a statistical reason for my prediction and I think I forgot to hit post. But here we go
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 21
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 19
Hurricanes - 10
Major Hurricanes - 5

Where did these numbers come from? by taking the most active of the 4 out of last 6 years and averaging out the totals and then adjusting by one, depending on my feelings of verisimilitude for my numbers.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Bloodstar]
      #87385 - Thu Mar 11 2010 01:04 PM

With El Nino making a withrawal I predict the following for 2010 season

Named systems: 15
Hurricanes: 10
Major Hurricanes; 6
Landfalling Hurricanes; 6
Florida landfalls: Let's not go there............

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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lawman6713
Registered User


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #87389 - Sat Mar 27 2010 05:50 AM

13/5/2

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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: lawman6713]
      #87396 - Sun Apr 11 2010 12:46 PM

My 2010 predictions are: 11/5/3

I WAY overshot last years predictions so I am going in another direction....

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #87397 - Sun Apr 11 2010 11:32 PM

looking at the past... 1958, 1966, 1969, 1998, 2005. The atlantic is warmer in a lot of areas, compared to last year at this time... and with El Nino forecasted to weaken... expecting an early start to the CV season and an above average season. Going with a highend forecast... 22 systems (atleast a invest tag)/ 18 storms/ 9 hurricanes/ 5 major

22/18/9/5.... *** landfalling guess*** <14>

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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gsand
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87398 - Mon Apr 12 2010 05:36 PM

20/17/11/4

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004
2014 Forecast- 11/4/1


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: gsand]
      #87400 - Wed Apr 14 2010 08:53 AM

20/10/5 == We've been dodging the bullet for to long.



--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2014 Forecast - 12,7,3


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87402 - Thu Apr 15 2010 07:53 PM

As a counterpoint to the Main Page article, I'm not yet convinced that the 'early indicators are shaping up to be an above average year'. NOAA's latest SST ENSO forecast (issued on April 11th) states an expectation that the current El Nino will last through this Spring with ENSO neutral conditions likely for this Summer.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, the winter SST anomaly predictions often come with a high degree of variability, and the same degree of forecast variability has already surfaced this year. As of February 18th the NOAA consensus was that the current El Nino SST anomaly had peaked at +1.2C in Sept/Oct/Nov - but the actual peak was +1.8C in Nov/Dec/Jan. I'd anticipate that the anomaly for Feb/Mar/Apr will be around +1.1C and that the decline will continue to an ENSO neutral state by Jul/Aug/Sep.

( Note that the anomaly for Feb/Mar/Apr came in at +1.2C )

I took a look at the SST climatological data where the SST anomaly had been around +0.6C during May/June/July of the previous year and had increased to about +1.5C in Jan/Feb/Mar and then decreasing at that point (or earlier). 1958, 1966, 1973 and 1992 met the criteria, however, the rate of decline was quite similar to the rate expected for this season in 1958 and 1966. The season totals for 1958 were 10/7/5 and for 1966 the totals were 11/7/4. While the SSTs in the tropical Atlantic are expected to be above normal, the amount of temperature increase is not too significant at about +0.5 or 0.6C.

With all of those considerations in mind, I'll nudge my seasonal expectations up to 10/6/3 - a rather normal season.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 04 2010 12:14 PM)


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IMTechspec
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87406 - Sat Apr 17 2010 11:06 PM

I have been thinking along the same lines as Ed, for the last few weeks. However, he said it clearer than I would have and with better data to back it up!

I see and hear some folks talking as if the El Nino and it's affects will turn off almost as if a switch has been thrown. While it has not been a strong El Nino, he has been a persistent little guy, and the effects will take a while to fade.
I recognize that there are some other potentially positive indicators shaping up that would favor more development, such as Atlantic SSTs and Winds, but so far these factors are not enough to push me into thinking that we at risk of a VERY active season. Let us hope that I am right.

At this point, I am predicting 11 named, 6 Hurricanes, 3 majors.


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ma10487
Unregistered




Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: IMTechspec]
      #87414 - Mon May 03 2010 05:07 PM

15/8/3

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srquirrely
Weather Watcher


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87415 - Tue May 04 2010 12:33 PM

14/8/4

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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: srquirrely]
      #87416 - Tue May 04 2010 01:41 PM

I'm still shooting high with 20/10/5. Last year with El Nino we had 9/3/2 and everybody agrees we got lucky. With any luck, I'm wrong. We'll see.

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2014 Forecast - 12,7,3


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #87417 - Wed May 05 2010 03:39 PM

My WAG: 14/8/4

Hopefully, they all will be fish spinners.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: MichaelA]
      #87418 - Fri May 07 2010 10:22 AM

Apparently the El Nino is fading fast and things over in the Pacific are almost neutral now, and trending to a weak La Nina. I think this will be a key ingredient in allowing for more storms, and for more Cape Verde storms.

Accordingly, I think we'll have a slightly above average system, but with weaker trade winds, I see more storms forming further East than say 2005, and thus becoming more of an East coast and a fish spinner season.

Water temperatures are prime in the tropical Atlantic, dust doesn't seem to be in the cards, and the tropical Atlantic seems to be a prime breeding ground now with sheer being relatively low.

In 2010 I do think Bermuda will have their fair share of "threats", close calls, and then some this year. I think N Carolina is prime for a hurricane too. Let's hope it's not a major. Florida will be threatened too, but they will watch several storms pass them by to the East and they head towards the outer banks or for an ever quicker recurve EAST of the CONUS.

I see the Gulf Coast being hit by two strong TS/Cat one hurricanes; but I think the Gulf states will not see a major hit this season. These two will be storms of the homegrown variety.

In the Carribean I see poor Haiti/DR, getting hit as a storm fails to recurve in time. Cuba will not be under the gun from a major hit.

My overall numbers are 17/8/5.


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: stormtiger]
      #87419 - Fri May 07 2010 11:00 AM

Greetings all! It's been awhile. Life has kept me pretty busy for some time.

I'm too rusty to attempt a prediction, however, the set-up for this year is a definite eye opener. Gulf water temps in my area jumped 11F in the past 5 days.

I'll be real interested in where the Bermuda High decides to park and what influence we get from the SAL.

Be safe everyone. Ill be around more frequently after I get this 5 point safety harness installed on my workstation chair...


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: srquirrely]
      #87431 - Sun May 16 2010 12:32 PM

Any updated thoughts ED on this season as june1 approaches. thanks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #87432 - Sun May 16 2010 08:31 PM

Nothing much to add except 1958 continues as the best analog year for the upcoming season - both in total number of storms and in potential track patterns (note: not exact tracks but areas of likely activity).

While a hybrid early season storm is possible in June or July, the real kickoff to the season will likely be in August (which is quite normal for a normal activity season). No changes to my earlier thoughts for 10/6/3.

As noted earlier, I'll be closing out this thread at the end of May, but that still gives you two weeks to post your own forecast for the season. Only those forecasts with exact numbers (i.e. 10/6/3), rather than a range of numbers (i.e. 8-12/5-8/2-5), will be considered in the summary at the end of the season. Good Luck.
Cheers,
ED


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87433 - Mon May 17 2010 10:03 AM

Not sure the reason for such low numbers there ED....

Let's see: El Nino is dead...shear should be weaker as a result.

Atlantic all time record TNA/AMO for MAR/APR in with robust SST that already look like July.

Analogous years with fading Nino/robust AMO : 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005.

Should be VERY active season (16+ storms), and the way the SSTa are shaping up, the Carib should be very warm...I would favor a GOM/Carib season once again.

Only negatives at this point is how much shear there is in the Carib, but I am thinking it is going to be weak.

ECMWF seasonal forecast mean MSLP forecast

This link supports consistent low pressures in the W. Atlantic/GOM. And with super warm SST in the Atlantic, should be no problem getting upward motion there when MJO pulses dictate so.

Edited by Hurricane29 (Mon May 17 2010 10:08 AM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Hurricane29]
      #87434 - Mon May 17 2010 12:31 PM

Hey all. Getting ready for the new season....glad to see some familiar faces visiting already. It was very interesting for me to read about very warm water temps in the Atlantic after the very cold winter we had here in Florida. I had just assumed that it would be similarly cool. The GOM DID start out cool early on but has really caught up the past 3-4 weeks. I don't have much prediction expertise to go on but I will give it a shot. After reading the somewhat conflicting viewpoints posted so far, I will have to blend them together a bit.
I am thinking there will be a solid upswing this season with El Nino going away so quickly. The possibility of La Nina conditions forming so soon after also leads to a belief in a busy season. Was going to go with 14 named storms, 8 of which will be hurricanes and 4 of those that will be considered MAJOR storms, but I see (after going back through the thread) that srquirrely beat me to that. I will trust Ed a bit and knock mine down to 13/7/4 but with about 20 systems all together (including depressions). I am thinking that those that DO get organized will have plenty of energy to reach hurricane strength. Hope all of the really high forcasts are dead wrong as I sit here on this peninsula of land jutting right in the middle of hurricane alley!
Looking forward to all the the excellent expert commentary and advice that this site is known for! Even after over 40 years of following tropical weather, I find I learn a LOT here every season! Keep up the good work!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


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saltysenior
Verified CFHC User


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87435 - Mon May 17 2010 10:32 PM


with the need of the weather people and the media to talk about something,i believe the qualifications needed to upgrade a weather system will be fudged upon........so i say 17-------11------3.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Bloodstar]
      #87442 - Thu May 20 2010 01:28 PM

Quote:

Well, I'd done all this math to come up with a statistical reason for my prediction and I think I forgot to hit post. But here we go
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 21
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 19
Hurricanes - 10
Major Hurricanes - 5

Where did these numbers come from? by taking the most active of the 4 out of last 6 years and averaging out the totals and then adjusting by one, depending on my feelings of verisimilitude for my numbers.




With the SSTs warming and we're already heading towards La Nina conditions I'm going to go ahead and revise my forecast:

Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 23
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 21
Hurricanes - 12
Major Hurricanes - 7

I've taken the three most active years this last decade (by catagory) and averaged them together and then bumped the numbers up by one.

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Bloodstar]
      #87443 - Thu May 20 2010 08:14 PM

Now I'm starting to get nervous.......I'm glad I'm up around Gainesville. We'll never get hit up here.

--------------------
Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2014 Forecast - 12,7,3


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87459 - Tue May 25 2010 03:42 PM

*edit* Raising my numbers after further study. In particular, trends continue *rapidly* developing in favor of a season of substantially lower-than-average shear, average to above average moisture content (perhaps much above average once the African monsoon kicks in), significantly lower MSLP, significantly enhanced instabilities, greater numbers of potential disturbances with which to build upon, and low and lowering SAL.

Additionally, historical trends since 1995 suggest that even an unimpressive, "average" season during these years would yield roughly 14-15 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. Barring any unforeseen changes, this year continues turning up to have the potential to best those figures by at least 20%.

My newly adjusted best guesses are now as follows:
19 storms total (named in real-time and/or added post-season), of which 11 become hurricanes, of which 6 become major hurricanes.

Orig. Entry:

Happy New Year, everyone.

It looks like a number of us are generally clustered around in above to well-above average numbers.

Given the likelihood of an Atlantic hurricane season that, as mentioned here and elsewhere, is currently following many similar trends as seen during 1958, 1969, 1998, 2005 and other very active years, calling for numbers considerably above the long-term average makes plenty of sense.

I'm finding my eagerness to join the chorus maybe only a little held in check by lots of seasonal shear and drier air still bantering about, some still cooler SSTs closer to home in regions that are typically more favorable for early development, relatively less activity and generally drier conditions over western Africa, and a potentially unknown variable in the form of a very large oil slick coating a TBD surface area, which could, in theory, hold back at least some statistically significant heat transferability.



Edited by cieldumort (Thu May 27 2010 06:22 AM)


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Doombot!
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: cieldumort]
      #87460 - Tue May 25 2010 05:42 PM

Going 13/7/5
weaking el niño and lighter sheer will be offset by higher volcanic activity and low solar activity.


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GlenJohnson
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Doombot!]
      #87461 - Tue May 25 2010 11:43 PM

Quote:

Going 13/7/5
weaking el niño and lighter sheer will be offset by higher volcanic activity and low solar activity.




The higher volcanic activicy I can understand, but where did you get the low solar activity?

http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2010...ss-with-gps.ars

(Remember, rationale in this thread is not required, and as mentioned at the start of the thread, please limit posts to those that contain your forecast for the season - it makes it easier for me to develop a summary of results at the end of the season. If rationale is given, it does not have to be justified. Perhaps the Private Message capability would have been a better choice for this.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed May 26 2010 08:03 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87462 - Wed May 26 2010 08:16 AM

Thr latest NCEP SST Outlook issued on May 23rd confirms an earlier end to El Nino conditions and a more modest La Nina in the ENSO 3.4 region for the next six months (or more). With consideration for this trend I'm going to nudge my seasonal outlook to 11/7/3. Note that 1966 replaces 1958 as the best analog year. There are some SST trends that support the season getting underway in July rather than August. You still have a few more days to throw your hat into the ring with your own forecast for the season. The latest CSU forecast is scheduled for release on June 2nd, and this thread will close on May 31st.
Cheers,
ED


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Chris 566
Unregistered




Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87463 - Wed May 26 2010 11:59 AM

I'm gonna go with 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes....

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87464 - Wed May 26 2010 12:07 PM

Hmmm. I kept my prediction a little low because of Ed's low numbers. Now he has edged his up.....should I push mine up respectively??? This actually makes me think my original 14/8/4 may have been the right way to go at the first. Looking at 1966.....it was a 12/7/3 year (if you include the non-tropical Kendra). Of note, two hurricanes struck Florida - Alma crossed the keys (IN JUNE) then up the west coast and back across the panhandle as a TS. and Inez went through the keys on its way to the Yucatan and Mexico. It was also an early season with 4 hurricanes (1 major) and 1 tropical storm before the end of July. Well...I think I will stick with what I said at 13/7/4. Certainly should be in interesting season and I would be interested in someone's take on how global climate changes may affect the comparison from 1966 to the present, or is that factored in already.
The countdown is to 6 days until the season starts!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


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Ed in Va
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #87469 - Thu May 27 2010 11:13 AM

NHC predicts a big season http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/27/active-hurricane-seasons-record-year-say-scientists/

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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okihabu
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87472 - Thu May 27 2010 12:14 PM

Well I am not as the rest of you, but here goes, 17 named, 8 hurricanes, 6 major. I think since El Nino presence will not be a factor it will have the same effect we had in '04. 22 yrs on Okinawa taught me cant predict these things.

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Chuck Good


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: okihabu]
      #87473 - Thu May 27 2010 12:33 PM

20/12/8 First named storm June 22nd.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #87474 - Thu May 27 2010 02:19 PM

Hello Ed. Shouldn't that be NOAA and not NHC?

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________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Ed in Va
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #87475 - Thu May 27 2010 03:35 PM

Technically NOAA, but in colleration with the NHC and others
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed in Va]
      #87476 - Thu May 27 2010 05:19 PM

I updating my 2010 outlook.. bumping up slightly... based on the last 25 - 30 days of new data.

I had 22/18/9/5.... *** landfalling guess*** <14>

I'm going with 27/20/11/7 *** landfalling guess*** <17> (27 systems...20 storms...11... Hurricanes... 7 majors)

First storm name May 31 <?.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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GlenJohnson
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87477 - Thu May 27 2010 11:38 PM

Wow, I thought my numbers were high.

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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
2014 Forecast - 12,7,3


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: gsand]
      #87479 - Fri May 28 2010 07:57 AM

This year, 17/11/5

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jamesrainier
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87486 - Sat May 29 2010 05:10 AM

29 Named storms, 16 hurricanes, 7 Majors

based on record high SSTs, El Nino gone, Saharan dust down, and I'm hearing lower wind shear


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weathernet
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: jamesrainier]
      #87490 - Sat May 29 2010 06:39 PM

Well for what its worth, decided to add my 3 cents worth. Besides, given that the one closest to season accuracy will receive 1MILLION Dollars...........why not! ( wishful thinking )

As I see it, were seeing the typical shear that this time of year might bring. Though there is no doubt some "lag" effect from El Nino, I have no reason to think wer'e going to see an early season. So given that a first named system doesn't form until the first week of July, it just seems so improbable to find a way to predict 20+ systems reaching Tropical Storm intensity ( or greater ). That said, present day SST anomolies are quite obviously high ( for Eastern/Central Atlantic ). It remains to be seen if we're already seeing the near maximum Atlantic temps., more typically witnessed in August/September, or if a continued rise continues. If the current SST anomolies continue to outpace a typical warming that we would normally see over the next few months, and forecast upper level winds truly relax as much as forecast......, than those especially along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard had better hope for a long wave to camp out over or just east of the U.S. Seaboard. Only saving grace for the Gulf states, might be whatever unusually favorable conditions in the Eastern Atlantic, might just mean that many less waves sneaking undeveloped into the Western Caribbean and Gulf.

This all said, and assuming actualization of forecasted below average surface pressures across the tropical Atlantic, coupled with forecasted low shear, I'm gonna bet against "crazy" busy, and simply go with "crazy" bad instead.

My 2010 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone forecast is for 17 Named T.S., with a high percentage of 14 becoming hurricanes, and 7 of them being major ( Cat. 3 and above ). To really go out on a limb, am guessing that at least 4 hurricanes this year reach Cat. 4 or greater strength.

Honestly though, other than the poleward moving storms that would normally develop in the W. Caribbean in October, if we can slip by the next 30 days or so without the typically early threats to the Gulf....."how many" or how bad" may prove mostly irrelevent if most end up as fish spinners. Any insights that anyone else might have regarding long term set up of the Western Atlantic ridge and longwave would be of greater interest to me. I don't believe such forecast tools exist however, that might accurately foresee such indications beyond a few weeks.

To summerize, am guessing 17/14/7

Edited by weathernet (Sat May 29 2010 06:41 PM)


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Epicyear2010
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87491 - Sun May 30 2010 06:44 PM

Just joined the site. I enjoyed reading all of the analysis so far, but here is mine.

1.) Because of the rapid decline of el nino in the spring to a weak nina, there is more than likely lagging effects, hence the higher shear. Although, hurricane season is just starting. Shear should decrease as early as late june. An active July is looking likely at this point.

2.) Carribean, Gulf, and the Atlantic SST's are all above normal, and should continue to rise into july as more east coast ridges start forming.

3.) Into August and September, things looks extremely active. There will more than likely be an above average cape verde season and quite a few long trackers . Depending on the position of the high, the long trackers can travel anywhere from the carribean, to out to sea.

4.) Oil in the Gulf - Dont think this will impact hurricanes at all that pass through, although i have read that it may warm the waters more - which would of course "fuel" the hurricane even more.

FINAL FORECAST

18-21 named storms
14 hurricanes
8 major

5-8 landfalls ranging from Brownsville to Cape Cod


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tekkrite
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87492 - Sun May 30 2010 10:08 PM

My guess: 26 named, 15 hurricanes, 6 major. WAG only, based on what everyone else is basing theirs on.

Further even Wilder AG: 2 hurricanes landfalling FL east coast, 3 GA/SC/NC, 4 around the Gulf Coast, the rest spinning fish and tarballs.


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WeatherNut
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87496 - Mon May 31 2010 11:03 AM

26 / 17 / 7

I still see a lot of similarities to 2005

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87499 - Mon May 31 2010 11:05 PM

This thread is now closed and we'll summarize the results at the end of the season. Thanks to all of you who participated.

Seasonal forecasts by various agencies:
WSI (5/25): 18/10/5
NOAA (5/27): 18/11/5 (averages)
CSU (6/2): 18/10/5
TSR (6/4): 18/10/4

ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Jun 04 2010 01:26 PM)


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