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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Area of Interest - TD1 North of the Honduras Coast

#87765 - Fri Jun 25 2010 06:53 PM

The season's first Tropical Depression has formed just north of the northeast coast of Honduras near 16.5N 83.5W. A has been developing over the past hour and if trends continue, additional intensification to tropical storm strength is likely later tonight. As with any embryonic system that is still organizing, centerpoint adjustments are possible. The tropical cyclone has moved very little in the past couple of hours which does allow for consolidation and intensification to take place - and also makes a future track forecast somewhat uncertain, although impact with the Yucatan Peninsula is the most likely scenario. Stronger windshear in the Gulf of Mexico and brisk upper level westerly winds could make for an interesting long range track (and weekend).
ED

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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Re: Area of Interest - TS Alex

[Re: Ed Dunham]
#87878 - Sun Jun 27 2010 09:55 PM

Alex has again regained tropical storm strength and is located on the western coast of the Yucatan about 55 to 60 miles southwest of Campeche, Mexico, near 19.2N 91.1W at 28/00Z. The system has been almost stationary for a couple of hours.

Changes are taking place in the Gulf of Mexico. Windshear has been on a rapid decline over just about the entire Gulf - and so have the westerly winds. Steering currents are becoming rather weak and a compression trough (for want of a better way to describe it) is creating a weakness in the western extension of the Atlantic ridge from Alex literally all the way to Cape Hatteras.

An upper level low (formerly Invest 94L) near 23N 68W at 28/00Z may have had more to do with the breakdown in the ridge than any other feature, as it continues to doggedly retrograde westward.

The weakening shear should allow Alex to restrengthen but the collapse of any realistic steering currents is going to make for a problematic future track - and its certainly likely to be a slow go. Even if Alex should strengthen considerably, the upper level winds are just as weak, so Alex might wander around for awhile.
ED

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