F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Alex Forecast Lounge
      #87767 - Fri Jun 25 2010 07:09 PM

Where do you think the system will go? How strong will it get? Will it sit and spin? Take your best guesses and discuss long range models here.

Best guess is still into Mexico (south of the Texas border) once it crosses the Yucatan, but enough uncertainty has entered the picture to allow for more.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #87779 - Fri Jun 25 2010 09:35 PM

This isn't about TD 1, but what is showing on the 18oz GFS run for the NE Gulf...is that storm tropical or not

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation



--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Jun 25 2010 09:40 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc:
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed in Va]
      #87780 - Fri Jun 25 2010 09:56 PM

I think it's Alex in the NE Gulf reformed on that computer plot.

Hard to say where it'll go, but I'd bet the ranch it'll be a lot stronger than they say it will.

Those that say it might help with the oil spill don't include those actually involved. They have pumped millions of gallons of dispersant, and burn massive amounts on the surface, in addition to pumping out some from that cap. Just chasing them away for a few days could have a dramatic effect, not to mention the wind driving it onshore.

With apologies to Mexico, sure hope it turns west.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc:
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #87786 - Fri Jun 25 2010 11:06 PM

The 11pm update has it taking a curl west at the very end, and has it staying a tropical storm all the way across land. Stronger than they said it would.

Still underestimating it is my hunch.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #87789 - Sat Jun 26 2010 03:29 AM

The 26/00Z package this evening is all over the place with TD1. The GFS initialized an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan and closes this feature off by H+72 (28/00Z). Currently UW-CIMMS is analyzing 50 knots of speed shear west to east along 22N latitude and it either weakens or gets out of the way or Alex will become a shallow system until it does do either and it becomes a question of how much he is likely to regenerate before arriving at the coast. Oil spill interests do not want this system taking a track to the coast of Texas or W LA. This is one scenario where a N to NE track might be in the overall best interest of everybody along the coast of the spill. This system has to deal with a few things; one a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, two, the upper low developing to its west and shear along the 22N corridor. Models are in two camps for the moment and if there is another wild card it's the evolution of the Eastern US longwave trough and while light it is reflected as far south as the Northern Gulf coast; certainly it is a pattern change from what the Southeast USA has been experience with this prolong heatwave. The biggest obstacle is the shear; it's all mute if it doesn't abate.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: TheOtherRick]
      #87790 - Sat Jun 26 2010 03:41 AM

You're correct, GFS has it plotted near the FL coast. The feature to the left is the GFS initializing an inverted upper trough over the Yucatan Peninsula and closing it off in about 72 hours which I believe is why it has Alex near FL on day 5. I spoke of this in the lounge; we cannot dismiss the shear that is currently near 22N latitude stretching from west to east. For the moment, TD1/Alex won't survive the track into the GOM in the here and now. Don't get me wrong it will enter the GOM but as a shallow system. None of the models are taking this system to hurricane strength other than the GFDL. A track to the west of the spill is not in the best interest of all concerned; a track towards FL while it will freak the daylights out of everybody isn't a bad thing for the oil on the surface given the winds ahead of the storm and a trajectory towards FL...initially they would be from the east but eventually a FL landfall would allow winds to back (counter clock) from east to northeast to north to northwest. A TX or TX/LA approach will initiate a fetch of south and southeast winds and some piling of water into all points east...assuming Alex is of any significance in development.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TheOtherRick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc:
Re: TD#1 Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #87820 - Sun Jun 27 2010 09:13 AM

Yep, so far, they've underestimated it.

My hunch is they still are.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick99
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: MikeC]
      #87904 - Mon Jun 28 2010 11:02 AM

Quote:

10 am CDT update is out, track shifted right again. This is going to be a crappy 4th of July for South Texas!!




Might be worse for Louisiana. That last data point is almost due north. The stronger it is the more it curls to the East, the more it curls to the East, the stronger it gets.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum. Remember, long range speculative stuff is better suited to the Lounge.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 28 2010 11:07 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
this is a huge storm [Re: MikeC]
      #87932 - Mon Jun 28 2010 09:31 PM

heavy cloud cover is wrapping around the storm. look at the size of the storm...and watch the wrapping of CDO. this storm will be huge, i think....and anyone who thinks that the NHC, or anyone else...has a wrap on this storm...is foolish. the only reason the NHC doesn't make sudden changes to their forecast, is because they are naturally conservative. It's as I said before. NONE of the models have gotten the fwd speed right. therefore, they are only human input of data. They can be amazingly accurate. But when a storm defies again and again the data...it's time to think from the gut. This thing is heading to the north gulf coast...imho

(The description of the Forecast Lounge says that 'gut' forecasts go here. )

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 28 2010 09:58 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick99
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Storm Alex in Bay of Campeche [Re: Rick99]
      #87935 - Mon Jun 28 2010 10:00 PM

All computer models are racing to the east. Only the NHC is now in Mexico.
Same 91.6 position as 5 am, but 70 miles north.
Pressure dropping.

Tell me again why it's such a certainty it won't hit the oil spill that they shouldn't be assuming it will.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick99
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: MikeC]
      #87943 - Mon Jun 28 2010 10:50 PM

100 miles due north since 5am. Another 500 to the oil spill.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Rick99]
      #87944 - Mon Jun 28 2010 11:07 PM

That 985mb pressure would easily support a 90mph Hurricane. Alex is so strung out it is taking forever for it to get the wind/ pressure relationship together.
Roughly 600 miles to the Northern Gulf Coast and probably 600 miles from east to west. Large wind field if and when it spins up.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rick99
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Rick99]
      #87945 - Mon Jun 28 2010 11:17 PM

Ok, no discussing the oil well except here. Got it. Just figured that put the amazing 100 miles due north from 5am in perspective, how it's not trivial.

NHC must not be discussing it either, still well to the west of all models, some of which now bring it close enough to make trouble. If they really need five days warning, it's already too late.

No doubt the NHC is right, but if they're wrong, there will be hell to pay.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: Rick99]
      #88000 - Wed Jun 30 2010 11:21 AM Attachment (194 downloads)

I feel this is the right place to post this. I am throwing out the NHC forecast and models. Based on the current motion and pattern of Alex. I have my track set like this..

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
Re: Hurricane Watches Up for Alex [Re: allan]
      #88002 - Wed Jun 30 2010 11:48 AM

I'm going to just throw out a crazy idea that Alex will go north more with landfall in southern to central texas. I think this because i think alex will start being steered the upper level regions.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 8082

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center